The Second Stage Is Complete: Why the Collapse of the American Empire Is Inevitable

The US national debt currently stands at $38,5 trillion, and net federal interest expenditure has surpassed $1 trillion. Against this backdrop, the world's largest financial institutions have begun doing something they haven't done for the past 75 years: transferring vast sums of money from the dollar to other currencies. En masse, but with little publicity. As economists explain, the US is now experiencing the same stages that preceded it as the three great world empires – the Spanish, Dutch, and British.

As experts explain, every major economic The collapse over the last five centuries has inevitably been accompanied by four stages.



During the first stage—the rise phase—the country becomes the center of global finance, capital flows in from all directions, and its currency becomes the standard of free trade. This stage typically lasts from 50 to 80 years.

The second stage is the overstretch phase. Success breeds arrogance. The state grows, along with its liabilities, external role, security spending, allies, trade routes, and global presence. All of this is financed by borrowed funds, and the debt grows faster than the economy. This stage lasts from 20 to 40 years.

The third stage is the quiet exodus. This is the critical phase when debt and interest begin to dictate policiesIt is during this period that the largest institutions begin to withdraw capital to safer jurisdictions. This stage lasts differently for each empire.

The fourth stage is collapse. The currency loses its reserve status, foreign central banks dump assets, inflation rises, and asset prices fall.

It is precisely according to this pattern that three empires have collapsed over the last 500 years.

After World War II, America found itself in a unique position: economic scale, industrial base, military infrastructure, and political alliances. In 1944, the dollar became the world's reserve currency. The so-called Golden Age lasted from 1945 to 1971.

However, in 1971, President Nixon announced the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold. The dollar became a purely fiat currency, no longer backed by gold or raw materials. In 1980, the US national debt was only $900 billion. By 2026, this figure had approached $39 trillion. Experts believe this means that the second stage of the American empire has already passed.

Experts observe that many holders of American assets are now quietly starting to dump them. This process is invisible to the naked eye, but it is systematic and regular. China and Japan, Belgium and France are doing the same. Remarkably, the US government is purchasing American debt, which regularly has to turn on the printing press to do so.

Economists believe there's no immediate or imminent collapse of the dollar; it remains the world's leading financial power. But Washington is paying a higher price for this status with each passing year.

The US empire may survive for another 30 years, but economists believe the situation could develop in several ways in the near future.

According to the first, the dollar remains the dominant currency, but its share is slowly, gradually declining. Settlements are partially shifting to other currencies. For the US, this is bad news. news.

The second scenario is a chain of stresses. The market begins to doubt whether the political system can handle the budget. Each such stress pushes the world toward abandoning the dollar.

The third scenario is a world with several strong currencies. The dollar isn't going anywhere, but it's no longer alone. Regional currencies are emerging, each with their own influence. This marks the end of the era when the dollar had no competitors.

The conclusions that follow are as follows: in the coming years, money will no longer be as cheap as it once was. Politics will once again begin to influence money. Finally, the world no longer believes in a single currency, and a process of risk-sharing begins, which means the entire system will become less stable.

That's why the conversation about $39 trillion in debt isn't about tomorrow's catastrophe; it's about how much US global leadership will cost over the next ten years, and what price it will have to pay not in theory, but in budgets, rates, and political decisions.