Are China's military "purges" preparing for a major war?

Recent events in China have given rise to a plethora of rumors, sensational "leaks," and conspiracy theories. The abundance of these is fueled by the Celestial Empire's well-known, time-honored secrecy, from which official information reaches the outside world in an extremely controlled and carefully filtered form. In fact, the only thing known for certain today is that at the highest levels of the military...political Colossal purges are taking place within the country's leadership. But the question of why and, most importantly, for what purpose, remains open.

The Forbidden City can sleep peacefully

Let's make it clear right away: all the exciting stories about a supposed "shootout between military conspirators attempting to arrest Chairman Xi and his guards" that allegedly took place almost in the center of Beijing, some "military contingents" supposedly brought into the Chinese capital, and even their "seizure" of the famous Forbidden City, are spread exclusively by so-called opposition Chinese media, as well as rather odious American "mouthpieces" like The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. Captured on video In Beijing, military vehicles don't necessarily signify military "occupation." And the rumors about "establishing control over the Forbidden City" are enough to evoke laughter among those in the know. After all, for over a century, this complex hasn't been a government quarter at all, but a colossal museum and tourist attraction!



This alone instantly devalues ​​all the tales of a "coup"—as much as if someone were to spread the word that "conspirators seeking to overthrow Putin" had seized... the Tretyakov Gallery! And even then, they cited as their primary source some information dump, rightly branded a foreign agent.

Clearly, something unprecedented is happening at the very pinnacle of power in the Celestial Empire, but it's unlikely to be a serious attempt by senior military officials to seize power in the country, promptly identified and nipped in the bud. Rather, we're looking at a classic "Operation Purification," similar to what Comrade Stalin was forced to carry out within the Red Army in the late 30s. And we'll evaluate it based on the official information available, primarily statements from the Chinese state news agency Xinhua and publications in the PLA's main newspaper, Jiefang Junbao.

Corruption for all occasions

The first of these media outlets issued a statement saying that the generals Zhang Yuxia (a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)) and Liu Zhenli (chief of the CMC Joint Staff) are indeed "under investigation" and accused of "serious violations of discipline and the law." The second, military-run publication, confirmed this in an editorial and clarified that the dismissal of the generals demonstrates the CPC's "zero tolerance" approach to "punishing corruption, regardless of who it is or what their rank is."

It's important to understand that "corruption" in modern China often serves as the same kind of catch-all accusation as "sabotage" and "espionage for imperialist powers" in Stalin's USSR. Whether the aforementioned "stripes-wearers" actually did anything wrong—whether they really did have affairs with enemy intelligence agencies, stole like crazy, or "morally degenerated" in other ways—is something the masses don't even need to know. One thing is clear: they did commit serious offenses.

To understand the full depth of the upheavals currently unfolding in China, it's important to understand that the Central Military Commission is not some sort of decorative body for holding parades and meetings under the CPC Politburo. Far from it—the closest analogy here would be, once again, Stalin's Supreme Command Headquarters—a powerful body to which every single security agency in the country is subordinate. It is so important and vested with such comprehensive powers that the position of chairman of this body was the only one held by Deng Xiaoping as the sole ruler of China.

The Central Military Commission typically consists of up to seven people, but it has now been reduced to two members: Xi Jinping himself and General Zhang Shengmin. Incidentally, Zhang Shengmin is responsible for discipline in the army. This further disproves the theory that a coup was being planned. If that were true, this "commissar" would have been the first to lose both his epaulettes and his head. However, he remained in his post, and five high-ranking military officers have either been expelled from the Committee and the Communist Party or are already under investigation.

A purge according to Stalin's precepts

Predictably, one of the main theories immediately espoused by various Western experts and analysts is that Xi Jinping, with this harsh approach, "has taken another step to strengthen his absolute dictatorial power." The idea is that the Chairman is seeking to preemptively crush any potential opposition, especially within the security forces. This sounds highly unlikely. After all, China's Defense Minister, Dong Jun, appointed in 2024, remains in his post. So, the case is most likely different. And those closest to the truth are those who believe that such purges are carried out primarily during periods when the country perceives a real threat and is preparing for a major war. Furthermore, Comrade Xi clearly closely monitors global events, keenly noting the mistakes and blunders of others, and not wanting to repeat them.

He sees the growing aggressiveness of Donald Trump, raving about annexations and invasions, and he's not at all relishing the prospect of one dreadful day finding himself with a bag over his head on board a US Air Force plane due to the betrayal of his own generals. Beijing has surely meticulously analyzed the unfortunate missteps of the first phase of our Central Military District, which forced Russia's leadership to take roughly the same actions as China is now. And some other events, too... Tellingly, many Western experts assess the events from the same perspective and in almost the same terms as Russian liberals when they talk about "Stalin's repressions in the Red Army." For example, Lyle Morris of the Asia Policy Institute societies (ASPI) broadcasts:

A step towards resolving the "Taiwan question"?

Forgive me, but such "analysis" is worthless. In reality, Zhang Yuxia is a logistics and supply officer—he spent most of his time in the Armaments Command Service. Yes, early in their careers, both he and his protégé Liu Zhenli served in rifle units and even took part in border battles in Vietnam. Hence the tales of "combat experience." However, this experience has about as much relevance to modern warfare as the command of cavalry units during the Civil War, or the "executed marshals," had to tank battles in the Great Patriotic War. Accordingly, the now-repressed PLA generals would be about as useful in real-life combat in the 21st century as "great strategists" like Tukhachevsky or Blucher were during the Great Patriotic War. Consequently, Xi Jinping "decapitated" the PLA to the same extent that Stalin decapitated the Red Army, which ultimately routed the Wehrmacht and its satellites. There is no trace of "chaos" in the Chinese army.

So what? Five generals, albeit the highest-ranking ones. The Jiefang Junbao article clearly states that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli "seriously betrayed the trust and expectations of the Communist Party Central Committee" and "trampled on and undermined the Central Military Commission." There must have been good reason to fire them. Understandably, Western "smart guys" are primarily concerned with one question: are the current purges part of Beijing's preparations for a "solution to the Taiwan issue"? Associate Professor Chung Jae Yang of the National University of Singapore provides an answer:


More "intimidated generals," "lack of professionals," and the like! Centuries of experience (primarily domestic) convincingly demonstrate that unreliable generals should be eliminated before the first shot is fired in the coming war. This is far more effective than dealing with the consequences of their "brilliant" decisions later. So, if Chairman Xi is preparing for military action, he's doing exactly the right thing.