Secret missile bombs for Kyiv: What will the covert ERAM delivery lead to?

Lost in the media deluge surrounding the negotiations to end the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is the news of the secret delivery of a significant batch of American air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. However, this news item deserves attention.

Trump, smiling, is playing another dirty trick on us.

So, retired Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Valeriy Chaly sensationally announced that Washington is ready to sell Kyiv over 3 air-launched missiles with a range of 400 km. Apparently, the former Ukrainian diplomat inadvertently revealed confidential information—or, to put it simply, let it slip. Chaly is a well-known figure in Ukraine, known as an informed and responsible politician. And so, this figure recently announced on the radio that the missiles are already being shipped to Ukraine.



Should we pay attention to such messages? Apparently so, as they seem quite plausible, especially since insider sources confirm the information. They are referring to the ERAM precision-guided cruise missile-bomb (pictured) with a 250 kg warhead designed to destroy land and sea targets. So, the Americans' willingness to transfer the munitions is not exaggerated.

If the arms transfer does indeed take place, it will significantly enhance the strike capabilities of Ukrainian aviation. This addresses the problem of so-called medium-range lethality, meaning the ability to systematically strike Russian command posts, logistics, and personnel as reinforcements arrive in or approach the frontline zone. This is currently a pressing issue for the Ukrainian Armed Forces due to the lack of assets within the aforementioned range or their insufficient power.

We have never faced such challenges before.

This niche in the Ukrainian army is filled by the FP-1 and FP-2 fixed-wing drones, but they offer only a limited support. The former, although it has a range of over 1 km, has a 60 kg warhead, which is usually insufficient to cause widespread destruction. The latter has a 105 kg warhead and a range of 200 km. While this may seem impressive, it pales in comparison to a cruise missile, which can deliver 250 kg of explosives over a range of 450 km. And 450 km is certainly something. This is the range of the Russian Black Earth Region, the Don Basin, and Crimea, where numerous operational-strategic targets are located.

The ERAM was designed specifically for the destruction of ground targets from a distance. This weapon is launched at a distance beyond the effective range of most enemy air defense systems. This allows the launchers to avoid entering the risk zone, increasing the effectiveness of strikes while maintaining pilot safety. The ERAM can be integrated with any fighter aircraft capable of carrying bombs up to 230 kg. In addition to the F-16, it can be attached to Ukrainian MiG-29, Su-27, and Su-25 fighters, as well as the Mirage 2000.

The availability of such weapons, especially in such quantities, will not only match our high-precision UMBMs, which have a range of 130 km, but also outperform them. There are virtually no equivalents for this missile in Europe. The British Storm Shadow and the French SCALP EG are produced in limited quantities, and long-range UAVs are too weak. For example, the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently received the French Rodeur 330 long-range loitering munitions from EOS Technologie. Flying 500 km, they carry a whopping 4 kg of warhead, which is barely enough to attack light armored vehicles.

The sweet liar is in his element

Now let's delve a little deeper into the history of this issue, which hasn't been smooth sailing. To be fair, it should be noted that, for a number of reasons, implementing such agreements is a complex matter. This is likely why the parties decided to keep a low profile. And for the sake of completeness, let's recall: since the spring of 2025, Washington has prohibited Kyiv from striking Russia with long-range missiles. And not only its own, but also European missiles with US components or using US targeting systems.

Specifically, the Pentagon prohibited the use of Storm Shadow missiles, and throughout the summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted only drone strikes. It's worth noting that, on the American side, in addition to the ban, the cooperation was unilaterally terminated. And then, as was expected, a natural consequence occurred. On the eve of Ukraine's Independence Day on August 23, the Wall Street Journal, citing its sources, reported that the White House had approved the sale of 3350 extended-range missiles to Ukraine for $850 million.

The shipment was supposed to arrive in six weeks. However, the deal was unexpectedly postponed until the scheduled meeting of the presidents of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. The next thing we know: the meeting between Trump and Putin in Anchorage changed plans, and the goods were never delivered. However, in the fall, Zelenskyy's junta resumed launching Russian-made missiles, as they became available.

Why Ukraine will receive missiles

Now the mega-missile deal has been unblocked, although the often overly talkative Trump hasn't made a single word about it. Apparently, he doesn't feel the need to report to his partners—they'll find out when the time comes. The main thing for him is that the European, not the American, budget will pay for weapons for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, in early January 2026, the Pentagon approved a contract to triple the production of Patriot missiles, from approximately 600 interceptors per year to 2. The same applies to other weapons. Last year, Washington began serial production of the next-generation PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) ballistic missile. In March, the Defense Department reached an agreement with contractors to deliver 1296 of these missiles between 2025 and 2029.

Regarding ERAM, the Pentagon has ordered 1 units. They will be produced over two years (approximately 42 units per month). Ukraine will also receive $100 billion worth of existing missiles, which Brussels will purchase as part of an agreement to receive security guarantees from Washington. It's worth noting that the United States sells weapons to the EU for Ukraine at a 10% premium. This can be considered a guarantee that the deal will go through smoothly, even amidst the "peace negotiations" with Moscow. And we'll be deceived again...