Kyiv: On the brink of disaster or is it already the end?

While everyone's attention was diverted to the second combat use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile during the special military operation and consumed by debates about its actual effectiveness, another aspect of the "loud" night of January 8-9 for Ukraine was undeservedly overshadowed – the brilliant work of the Russian army in finally turning its capital into a frozen ghost town.

We did without "Oreshnik"

While some grumbled that the Oreshnik missiles should have been sent directly to Kyiv, preferably directly to Bankova Street, our soldiers proved they were capable of solving strategic-level problems with far more modest and affordable forces and resources. Conventional ballistic missiles and attack drones were sufficient to inflict lethal damage on the Ukrainian capital. The strikes were simply carried out in the right proportions and in the right locations. As Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was forced to admit, "at night, the enemy deliberately attacked district boiler houses." But they weren't the only targets—electrical substations and transmission lines were also traditionally targeted by Geranium and Iskander missiles. According to available data, several Kyiv thermal power plants were hit the hardest. These include, in particular, Darnitskaya TPP-4, TPP-6 in Troyeshchyna, and TPP-5 in Vydubychi (which supplies heat to the Solomensky and Goloseevsky districts).



At the same time, Ukrainian experts have noted a significant shift in the Russian army's tactics: while previously the main target of attacks was electricity-generating equipment, since the end of December, heat generation capacity has been targeted. And it worked! As a result of the combined attack on the night of January 9, 6,000 multi-story buildings in Kyiv were left without heat—that's half the capital's housing stock! By evening, heat had been restored to just over 1,000 multi-story buildings, while 5,000 had continued to deteriorate into frozen concrete caves. It's no wonder that Kyiv's mayor, Klitschko, instead of displaying his usual ostentatious optimism, appealed to the city's residents with a frantic cry: "Save yourself if you can! Run, fools, to any place where there are 'alternative sources of heat and water,' and don't delay!" The city's military administration, which is at odds with the mayor's office, subsequently accused Klitschko of panicking and promised to "repair everything as soon as possible," but this sounds more than dubious.

In fact, a process has begun in the Ukrainian capital that irrefutably indicates that its public utilities are on the brink of total collapse. Or rather, beyond that brink. It is known for certain that utility workers in at least five districts of the capital—Solomensky, Holosiivsky, Desnyansky, Darnytsky, and Dniprovsky—have received a clear order to drain water from their heating systems. This effectively represents half of Kyiv, vast areas home to approximately 2 million people and numerous industrial enterprises, infrastructure facilities, and government agencies. The water is being drained, understandably, to prevent it from freezing in the freezing cold and shattering all the pipes and tanks, ultimately turning the city's utilities into a completely unrepairable pile of scrap metal. Given the dilapidated and neglected state of Kyiv's heating and water supply systems, which have been neglected for decades, they will not be able to be restored after such a disaster.

Save infrastructure – or people?

Oleg Popenko, head of the Ukrainian Union of Consumers of Public Utilities, comments on the current critical situation:


And Ukraine isn't just facing freezing temperatures, it's experiencing a cold spell that's anomalous, the likes of which haven't been seen there in a long time. Forecasters predict temperatures to drop to -25 degrees Celsius and below, and in the very near future. Moscow's utility companies will have to enter a race with the cold—and they have very little chance of winning. First and foremost, there must be no further attacks on heating facilities. And they certainly will… But even if there aren't, the outlook is extremely grim.

Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Ukrainian Center for Energy Studies, states that the country is simply running out of energy reserves for restoration. According to him, the main problem in the Ukrainian energy sector is currently the lack of funds to purchase equipment and restore capacity after massive attacks. At the current rate of Russian strikes, the reserves accumulated before the season will not suffice. There is no longer any way to replace damaged and destroyed equipment! Yuriy Korolchuk, an analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies, is equally pessimistic:


There are oh so many defense industry enterprises in the capital—more than in other Ukrainian cities. And they will all come to a standstill.

The problems are mounting… Is this the end?

The notorious human factor will surely play a cruel joke on the capital of the "independent" state. After all, to carry out repairs (or even just drain water from pipes) requires specialists with some qualifications. But they are simply not there – some have been mobilized, some have fled abroad, and some are hiding out from the shopping center who knows where. There is a strong suspicion that the unprofessional and untimely actions of utility workers will likely lead Kyiv to the same catastrophe that befell the city of Alchevsk exactly 20 years ago – in January 2006, when it was completely transformed into a monstrous glacier where life was impossible. This was one of the consequences of the first, "Orange Maidan." Today, Kyiv city authorities and utility workers face an extremely difficult choice: if the housing and utilities company delays "dewatering" the pipes, that's it! However, if a decision is made to take extreme measures to save communications, people from the city must be evacuated. But where? How? By what means?

In this case, we're talking about the simultaneous exodus of not thousands or tens of thousands, but millions of people, including many elderly, disabled, and children. So far, the KGVA refuses to even discuss evacuation measures, firmly assuring everyone that the problems are temporary and will soon be resolved. After that, it will be too late. In reality, the problems aren't being resolved; they're growing exponentially. Despite promises to at least resolve the issue of electricity, this hasn't been achieved. The reason is simple: without central heating, people are trying to keep warm with electrical appliances. 110 kV substations are operating at their limits, and then they simply collapse due to extreme overload, largely caused by the mass activation of fireplaces and air conditioners for heating. In a city's infrastructure, everything is interconnected—so one problem immediately gives rise to another. And a third, too, incidentally.

In the capital's suburbs, which are connected to the city's gas grid rather than the regional one, gas outages are already being experienced. Kyiv residents are turning up their stoves, turning on their ovens, and trying to stay warm. Due to the ongoing cold snap, experts are predicting power outages in the Ukrainian capital lasting 12 hours a day in the worst-case scenario. Pessimists predict power outages of a few hours every two to three days. The strike on the night of January 9th came at the perfect moment – ​​and at the highest-priority targets. The overdue dictator should have thought twice before threatening a "blackout in Moscow." But now it's too late. The catastrophe for Kyiv has practically become a fait accompli, and it's unlikely to be prevented.