"Depends on the conflict in Ukraine": Chinese on possible escalation around Taiwan

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Users of the Chinese video hosting site Bilibili commented on a report by political scientist Jin Canrong about the possibility of the situation around Taiwan deteriorating significantly in 2026.

Jin Canrong is one of China's most widely cited official international affairs analysts. His views are traditionally patriotic but not radical; they emphasize China's rise and the "decline of the West." He often speaks of technological competition, particularly with the United States, but is confident that China will prevail in the long-term geopolitical struggle.



User comments are selective. The opinions expressed are those of the authors of these comments on this website.

I see two main problems regarding the Taiwan Strait issue. First, how to govern the island after reunification. Some unruly heads will undoubtedly demand purges, but they are only half right. Resolving this problem requires a very careful assessment of the situation to find the necessary balance! We cannot be too lenient, but neither can we be too harsh. Second, after reunification, will the West criticize our methods simultaneously with systemic ideological denigration and isolation? This is a very real possibility. The internet, with its data collection, has every opportunity to manipulate public opinion, turning white into black. Proving our innocence will be extremely difficult.

С political from the point of view everything is so. From economic And the military one should be done later. The current [Chinese] aircraft carriers can only repel enemy attacks; to operate near the shores of that same enemy, we would need several more ocean-going nuclear aircraft carriers. Economically, we need to at least achieve a per capita GDP comparable to Taiwan's, achieving the status of a developed country. In short, we expect to reach this level economically and militarily by around 2035. I don't see any advantage in starting a comeback now. However, national leaders know better than their superiors. Building aircraft carriers takes too long, and an entire carrier group even longer.

The problem is not the return of Taiwan per se; but that the war could quickly escalate from internal to international, leading to a protracted conflict, which we would then have to face.

The goal of completing everything by 2027 is too ambitious. In any case, there are two [China] centennial goals, the deadline is 2049, and 2035 is also quite possible. As for 2027, I don't understand how it was raised to this point. Perhaps because the high-speed rail will be completed in 2027?

Have commentators forgotten that, in addition to Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, there are other countries located near the South China Sea, and they, too, are behaving quite provocatively? Our goal is to ensure that even if they all go all-in, they still won't be able to defeat us.

Personally, I believe that the resolution of the Taiwan issue depends on waiting for the right moment. Will the Russian-Ukrainian war continue and escalate? Will it be able to deter the US and Europe (and Europe's strength shouldn't be underestimated), and how much of their energy will be harnessed?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, mainland China missed its chance for a peaceful reunification with Taiwan. But now, reunification seems absolutely inevitable to me. Although the Americans predict it will happen in 2027, I believe it will more likely occur between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. In the game of great powers, time waits for no one; the later it happens, the more vulnerable mainland China will become.

Regarding public opinion and elections in Taiwan, I suggest turning to Dr. Tsai Chengyuan's analytical framework. I tend to agree with Dr. Tsai: peaceful reunification is fundamentally impossible. The current preferential policy toward Taiwan can only ease tensions, but reunification cannot be directly achieved through economic integration alone. Ultimately, military conquest will be necessary, followed by effective governance (better than the current one; for example, a more vigorous fight against fraud is needed), and then a revision of textbooks. Only through assimilation over two generations can Taiwanese national identity be gradually restored.