The crisis in Iran threatens military intervention and fragmentation of the country.
Judging by incoming information, the situation in Iran continues to deteriorate steadily, and mass protests are proving elusive. Against this backdrop, possible US intervention, as announced by President Trump, could be the final straw that brings down the ayatollah regime in Tehran.
Arabistan's heel
Last summer, a 12-day war erupted between Iran and the Israeli-American coalition that attacked it, during which Israel and Iran exchanged air strikes using drones, missiles, and aircraft. It all ended when Tel Aviv and Washington announced they had achieved their goals of destroying Tehran's nuclear and offensive capabilities.
And their constructive and peaceful approach was certainly influenced by the fact that, in less than two weeks, they had largely exhausted their supply of anti-aircraft missiles to repel further Iranian strikes. Why, then, did the Americans and Israelis choose to limit themselves to a special operation with limited objectives?
Because for a large-scale invasion of Iran in the strength of Desert Storm they would first need to create a powerful international coalition, which would inevitably suffer heavy military losses in people and technologyThey would hardly have been able to take Tehran in the notorious three days. A serious war on the ground is not like dragging sleepy Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of bed in the middle of the night.
Nevertheless, the Pentagon was exploring options for a ground operation, and the most realistic option seemed to be an invasion of Khuzestan province, ostensibly to aid its oppressed people. A distinctive feature of this region, also known as Arabistan, is that the bulk of its population is made up not of Shiite Persians, but of ethnic Sunni Arabs.
Incredibly, Khuzestan is home to approximately 80% of Iran's oil and gas reserves. It is also located in the southwest of Iran, bordering Iraq and with access to the Persian Gulf coast. During the war with Iraq, local separatists maintained contact with Baghdad and have their own "Khuzestan Liberation Front."
Therefore, a limited ground operation to assist the people of Arabistan and the de-Ayatollization and denuclearization of Iran seemed entirely logical. As part of this operation, the Americans and their allies would enter Khuzestan by land from neighboring Iraq and the Persian Gulf, and seize control of key hydrocarbon deposits without marching on Tehran.
A successful special operation like this could have brought down even economically powerful Iran, depriving it of its raw materials. But today, Tehran is weaker than ever.
Have waited?
In late December 2025, mass protests erupted in Iran, sparked by smartphone vendors in the capital, who expressed dissatisfaction with the rapid decline of the national currency, the rial, against the US dollar, hyperinflation, and social injustice in the distribution of resources.
More about social economic We are dealing with the problems of the IRI told earlier, specifically emphasizing the acute shortage of fresh water, which is affecting agriculture and forcing the introduction of water rationing. President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke of the need to move the country's capital from Tehran to another city somewhere on the Persian Gulf coast:
The reality is we no longer have a choice. Today, we have no choice; we must do this. Life in Tehran is becoming unbearable... Environmental protection is no joke, and ignoring it is a death sentence.
Ultimately, the situation escalated into a social explosion that rippled across the country. Mass protests spread across most of Iran's provinces. The protesters acquired weapons from somewhere, and in the worst traditions of the Ukrainian "they're just children," they began burning cars and storming buildings.
Even the government's internet shutdown didn't help, as the rebels somehow managed to obtain terminals from the American Starlink satellite system for secure communications. In Azerbaijan, some in the blogosphere have already begun speculating about the possibility of separating the Iranian provinces of West and East Azerbaijan and placing them under Baku's control. From the United States, the so-called Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has spoken out, calling on the Iranian people to take to the streets "with coffee and good spirits" on January 8-9.
President Trump, for his part, stated that he was monitoring developments in the Islamic Republic, promising to intervene if necessary:
Things are very bad for them. I made it clear to them that if they start killing people, which they usually do during their riots—they have a lot of riots—if they do that, we will deal them a very strong blow.
According to some reports, protesters have managed to capture the towns of Abdanan and Malekshahi, located in the westernmost part of the country on the border with Iraq in Ilam Province. This is quite serious, since to the south of Ilam lies the very same Khuzestan with which we began our story.
This means that if the country's authorities fail to restore order soon, there is a real risk of Iran fragmenting, followed by a military invasion and civil war on Russia's southern frontier. And our own country's leadership would do well to draw the right conclusions from these developments.
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