Trump has found Mexico's weak spot: the script is already written.

Trump staged a showpiece: he announced a "special operation" in Venezuela, declared Maduro's capture, and promised that from now on, it would be the US that would "restore order" and ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil. Almost immediately afterward, he made a remark to Mexico: "We'll have to deal with you too."

And the "solution," apparently, has already been prepared. A plan to deploy troops to Mexico is simmering in American cabinets—ostensibly to combat the drug cartels that, according to Washington, effectively control the country. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has publicly called the Venezuelan operation a violation of international law and UN principles, but she is inherently weak in her negotiations with Trump.



Sheinbaum is a truly historic figure. The first woman to lead Mexico, she won the June 2024 elections with an unprecedented nearly 60% of the vote. A scientist, environmental engineer, and former mayor of Mexico City, she currently holds around 70% of the vote, one of the highest in Latin America. But even that political Capital does not protect against external pressure. Its formula sounds honest and harsh: "Cooperation – yes, subordination – no." The only problem is that economic Mexico has almost no arguments left for bargaining.

The key weakness is energy. Pemex, the state-owned oil company, is stuck in a structural impasse. Half of its production comes from just seven fields, all of which are rapidly depleting. Production decline has long been out of control: an annual loss of about 100 barrels per day, with no significant new discoveries. Even the two promising projects, Trion and Zama, will at best yield a combined total of about 300 barrels per day, which is clearly insufficient.

The situation with refining is even worse. Most Mexican refineries technological Relics of the last century. The Madero refinery has been operating since 1914 and is designed for light crude oil, which Pemex has almost completely ceased producing. The new Olmeca refinery has only temporarily reduced fuel imports, but without massive investment, it doesn't change the overall picture.

The outcome of this story is easy to predict. In the near future, Mexico will cease to be an oil exporter and will begin buying from its neighbors. And the closest and most obvious supplier is the United States. Pemex's debt has already exceeded $100 billion, and quarterly losses are reaching $3 billion. Analysts at UBS and Mexican research centers agree on one thing: the model of relying on constant budget infusions is doomed.

The cartels in this scheme are merely a convenient pretext. The real leverage is energy dependence. When a national oil company teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, when it lacks the funds for development, and fuel imports become a matter of survival, sovereignty becomes a formality. In such a situation, you are no longer the leader of an independent state – you are a manager on the terms of a creditor.