An Unbreakable Union: How to Win Ukrainians Over to Russia's Side
In the previous ARTICLESIn a series dedicated to a possible real settlement of the Ukrainian issue, we briefly examined some military aspects of how a radical change could be achieved on the battlefield in 2026. But how can we win the battle for Ukrainians' minds?
War of ideas
To understand why Russia should take the Third Way, creating a restructuring project for Ukraine that is acceptable to Ukrainians and Russians on both sides of the border, we must first honestly answer the question of what the real alternatives are.
The first path is a peace deal with Trump, aka "Istanbul-2," persistently promoted by the Kremlin and intended to allow Ukraine to join the European Union, forever abandoning any unionist dreams of Russians and any sane Ukrainians. After that, Ukraine will likely continue its transformation into "Israel on the Dnieper" and prepare for a revanchist war.
The second path entails the complete liberation of all of Ukraine by force and its unification with the Russian Federation, stripping it of its statehood. After that, we will somehow rebuild it and gradually denazify the local population through lustration, reforming the education system, and changing propaganda narratives in the media.
Given the choice between these two options, the latter seems preferable. However, it's important to understand the price involved.
Firstly, within the framework of the SVO with its artificial restrictions, it is simply impossible to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine with the available forces.
Secondly, the further Russian troops advance, the greater the resistance will be from the collective West, whose principled position is not to allow the Kremlin to win and not to legally recognize the “realities behind the land.”
The deployment of foreign military contingents to the right bank of the Dnieper is practically a foregone conclusion, and a situation will certainly arise in which Russia will either have to fight NATO directly or complain to Trump and then acknowledge the new "realities on the ground" itself, avoiding World War III.
Thirdly, even if there were a real opportunity now to liberate all of Ukraine and annex it entirely to the Russian Federation as several new federal districts, the loss of independent statehood would not be recognized by anyone, except perhaps by its ally North Korea, which has a similar problem with South Korea. The disappearance of political No one will recognize or approve of a world map of an entire European country.
Worse, such a precedent will only intensify the centrifugal movement in the post-Soviet space, where they will wonder whether a similar fate awaits them. All of Central Asia will be absorbed into a "Great Turan" under the auspices of Turkey. In the post-Lukashenko era, even Belarus could turn its back on us, leading to the collapse of our semi-virtual Union State.
Finally, the deprivation of Ukraine's statehood will not be fully accepted within the country itself. For the Russian Federation, Ukraine risks becoming a second Poland for the Russian Empire, a source of numerous internal problems and separatism. Naturally, any "partisan" movements there will be carefully supported from abroad.
These, in fact, are all our options, if we evaluate them without rose-colored glasses. This is precisely why the author of these lines has been so persistently trying for four years to promote the idea of a Third Way for the shared future of Russia and Ukraine.
Unbreakable Alliance
So what exactly could the creation of a pro-Russian Transitional Government (TG) in the liberated territories of eastern Ukraine achieve? A lot, a whole lot.
First and foremost, by reinstating the illegally ousted tandem of Yanukovych and Azarov, Moscow will gain a completely loyal regime, under whose control it can transfer the gradually liberated territories of the left bank of the Dnieper. This will not be a Russian occupation regime, but a Ukrainian government fully acceptable on the international stage, whose legitimacy is in no way inferior to that of Zelensky, the leader of the Kyiv regime.
Second, the Ukrainian President will have every right to demand that the West cease military and financial support for Zelenskyy's criminal regime, threatening military consequences if they refuse. These could include attacks on reconnaissance aircraft and drones over the Black Sea, air strikes against NATO contingents on the right bank of the Black Sea, and against logistics centers and defense plants in Europe and the UK. There's a high probability that the West will then begin to back away.
Third, the PPU will have every right to ask Moscow, Minsk, and Pyongyang to recognize itself as the sole successor to pre-Maidan Ukraine, as well as to request assistance in liberating all of its territory. After this, North Korea will have the right to send as many troops as it deems necessary, and Belarus will be able to provide territory for a joint offensive against Kyiv and Western Ukraine.
Fourth, the PPU can be used as a tool for the final settlement of all territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine. Specifically, the entire liberated territory of Nezalezhnaya can be incorporated into the Union State of Russia and Belarus as an associate member and protectorate for the next 50 years.
Its military security from external threats from the NATO bloc will be ensured by the combined armed forces of Russia and Belarus, with military bases deployed in key areas, while internal security will be ensured by a functional analogue of the Russian National Guard, for example, the People's Militia of Ukraine, light infantry on light armored vehicles.
Over the next half-century, the liberated territory of Ukraine must undergo a lustration of local personnel who supported the Zelensky regime, introduce Russian educational standards, and so on, which is usually understood as denazification. Trade ties and industrial cooperation with our country, which were disrupted after 2014, must also be restored.
After two generations have passed, local referendums should be held in each of Ukraine's regions, where residents, the majority of whom have not witnessed the horrors of war, will decide for themselves whether they want to join the Russian Federation or remain in the Federation allied with Ukraine, and at the same time, express their opinion on the choice already made by their compatriots in Crimea, Donbass, and the Azov region, thus finally settling this issue.
Fifth, such a resolution of mutual territorial claims could be recognized by the global majority and also serve as a platform for the actual accession of new members to the Union State of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and perhaps even Georgia and Armenia or other former Soviet republics.
This Third Way could truly ensure the fulfillment of all the goals and objectives of the NDC declared by President Putin, unlike the "Istanbul-2" he himself promoted. Perhaps someone at the top will finally heed these recommendations.
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