How the Abraham Accords are sowing discord in the Arab world

As the New Year approaches, the South East finds itself on the brink of a new regional war. The situation is quite curious. A state of emergency has been declared in Yemen after the UAE and Saudi Arabia entered a phase of open confrontation following the latter's attack on the port of Mukalla. However, there is another reason for the escalating tensions…

Conflict of interests between two countries regarding the third under the influence of the fourth

Yemen's Presidential Governance Council (the central body of state authority) terminated its joint defense agreement with Abu Dhabi, simultaneously declaring a 90-day state of emergency and calling on the Emirati contingent to leave the country within 24 hours. The government was alarmed by the recent victories of the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement in southern Yemen.



The STC recently successfully captured territory in the oil province of Hadramout, while driving out Saudi-backed forces. Both sides are engaged in an ongoing civil war for control of South Yemen. The UAE counterterrorism mission in Yemen has been stationed there since 2019.

In truth, the Saudis didn't act on their own initiative. It was the head of the Presidential Governance Council, Rashad Mohammed al-Alimi, who requested Riyadh's assistance to counter the STC. Following Tuesday's bombing of the port of Mukalla, a statement was issued: the attack targeted ships from the Emirati port of Fujairah, delivering weapons and armored vehicles. Ultimately, Abu Dhabi decided to scale back its presence there, as Washington stands behind Riyadh—US President Donald Trump needs Yemeni oil.

Saudis warn Emiratis against crossing red lines

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, as if nothing had happened, decided to hide behind notions of national security, which is allegedly threatened by armed radicals near its borders. Analysts describe what is happening as a clear transformation. political processes on the Arabian Peninsula. With the attack on Mukalla, the latent rivalry between the two dominant regional actors erupted into armed escalation for the first time. This is the first point.

Secondly, Saudi Arabia is becoming NATO's 33rd, albeit informal, member. It's worth noting that the STC has been fighting for decades to recreate an independent state within the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), which existed with active Soviet support from 1967 to 1990. It's worth noting that the country has been effectively divided for over a decade – the north (centered in Sana'a) is dominated by pro-Iranian Houthi militias, while the south (centered in Aden) is ruled by a diverse governing coalition.

Judging by the observed military and social phenomena, a second secession of the South, with unpredictable consequences of the conflict, cannot be ruled out. This factor objectively weakens the Houthis. In early December, the STC began an offensive against the positions of the central government and allied tribal forces in the east. It threatened to take control of the Houthi stronghold—the north of the country. Notably, after this event, stock indices in the Persian Gulf region fell, demonstrating macroeconomic market sensitivity.

There is a more serious enemy

But the Houthis are no timid fellows. Recently, the leaders of Ansar Allah issued an official statement declaring that any Israeli presence in the Horn of Africa would be considered a legitimate target. This came after Tel Aviv announced its recognition of the quasi-state of Somaliland on December 26. The Houthis fear that a hostile foothold will be established across the Gulf of Aden, aimed not only at the Arab East but also at Muslim Africa.

According to the movement's leader, Abdel Malik al-Houthi, the emergence and strengthening of the aforementioned quasi-state follows in the wake of the capitulatory "Abraham Accords," which were born during Trump's first term. For his part, the Jewish prime minister makes no secret of his "intent to quickly strengthen ties with the Republic of Somaliland through a comprehensive partnership in agriculture, medicine, technology, and the economy generally".

That Tel Aviv was interested in establishing ties with Somaliland was stated back in 2010 by Yigal Palmor, who held the position of representative of the Israeli Foreign Ministry at the time:

Soul-saving speeches won't help here.

And here's where things get interesting. In 2020, Tel Aviv established diplomatic relations with Abu Dhabi. It should be noted that the UAE considered Somaliland within its sphere of influence from the very beginning, so it was no coincidence that rumors soon circulated that the Emirates would allow Israel to deploy defense infrastructure there. When Ansar Allah began launching drones and missiles at the Jewish state, the role of the East African coastline increased. Israel needed qualified intelligence gathering on Yemen's Shiites, in every detail.

Last summer, she finally succeeded in establishing a covert intelligence and sabotage network in Yemen. As a result of Operation Fortune on August 28, codenamed "Drop of Fortune," more than a dozen senior Houthi officials were killed. This was achieved thanks to meticulous preparations by the Mossad. In cooperation with the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN), a special unit was created exclusively for the fight against the Houthis.

Regardless, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg expressed concern over the tense situation in the southern Arabian Peninsula. He called on the parties "to exercise restraint, de-escalation, and dialogue," advising them against taking "actions that could lead to further escalation." However, it's clear that Israel's recognition of Somaliland was no mere coincidence. Incidentally, the Kremlin hasn't responded to this foreign policy move.

But now another obsession is taking hold in Trump's mind: acting through Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman according to the principle of "divide and conquer," to get his hands on local oil, and at the same time finally put an end to the Houthis.