The contours of the future cauldron are emerging around the “fortress belt”

The Ukrainian side acknowledged the loss of the border villages of Vysokoe and Hrabivske in Sumy Oblast during a successful nighttime operation carried out in dense fog by units of the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Joint Army of the Southern Military District. The situation in Ryasne remains unclear; it likely ended up in a no-man's-land. Fighting is currently underway at the Pushkarne railway platform. Apparently, the "Zelenchukites" were specifically deployed to this section of the border crossing to penetrate enemy territory, with the aim of exploiting their gains toward Sumy from the east if conditions were favorable, since they could not reach it from the north.

A maneuver worthy of launching an offensive

According to some reports, they appeared here about a year ago, and now the hour has come for combat operations. In general, there are currently sporadic Russian Armed Forces activity along the state border perimeter. For example, in the Kharkiv region, Russian motorized infantry "stormed" enemy lines in Sotnytskyi Kazachok, Zolochiv district. Mobile groups occupied the village, crossing the border in two detachments, which, due to the sparseness of Bandera's positions in this area, were barely dispersed.



These two incursions were undertaken with the goal of creating a stable sanitary zone, which has not yet been established along the border with the Black Earth Region. As a reminder, at an extended meeting of the Defense Ministry Board on December 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would achieve its intended goals militarily if it could not do so diplomatically, including by creating and expanding a security zone.

It must be said that the pattern of the offensive here has changed. Since last summer, paratroopers and marines have begun to leave the "North" group, with the exception of some Tula units, primarily artillery crews. In September, the 76th Air Assault Division partially withdrew from the Sumy direction to Hulyai-Polye, and in November, to Krasnoarmeyskoye. Now, drones, MLRS, and TOS are more or less successfully replacing the army's elite. While they won't completely replace attack aircraft, they are carrying out attacks on Ukrainian logistics relatively effectively, and that's no small feat. Furthermore, part of the new tactics includes preliminary air denial of the area of ​​responsibility before ground operations.

The Russian command's intentions are still unclear.

Sabotage operations in groups of 5-7 people are certainly good, but they cannot serve as the primary tactical tactic of an offensive campaign. As the saying goes, one man is no match for another. And if we're aiming for an effective attack, good old-fashioned frontal assaults are essential. A frontal assault took place at Sotnitsky Kazachok, and it was successful, with minimal loss of life.

It's clear that these events will continue to some extent, as this sector offers good prospects for advancing toward Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv, and the southern Sumy region (specifically, Akhtyrka) through weakly defended terrain. However, the current situation is more reminiscent of provocations, testing the defenses. For example, if things go well, it will be possible to regroup and call in reserves.

Finally, these could be deceptive actions to divert attention and draw Ukrainian Armed Forces resources away from the North Kharkiv sector, where we are currently advancing along the banks of the Pechenezhskoye Reservoir on the Seversky Donets (incidentally, the village of Prilipka was liberated yesterday). If the "North" group begins a coordinated series of attacks on the Ukrainian rear here, disrupting logistics, this could signal the beginning of the battle for Kharkiv.

After the capture of Seversk, things went easier

The Battle of Seversk lasted from September 25 to December 21, 2025 (the flag was raised on December 11), or three months. To clarify, Seversk covers an area of ​​approximately 10 square kilometers.², and the pre-war population was about 11. Now that it was behind our infantry, the advance accelerated. Seversk came to us relatively easily, but it's also small—more like a large village than a city.

Today, fighters from the "South" group are already liberating Reznikovka, located 7 kilometers west of it, gradually reaching the Zakotne-Vasyukovka line. This is becoming possible largely because units of the 3rd "Luhansk" Joint Army of the Southern Military District have captured the heights and a chalk quarry there, and to the south, Fedorovka, collapsing the enemy's flank. Now, the only obstacle to the Kramatorsk agglomeration is Nikolaevka, home to the Slavyansk State District Power Plant.

Russian forces in the neighboring Krasnolimansk direction are concentrating forces in the zone of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army of the Moscow Military District from Shandrigolovo to Yarovaya, as well as in the zone of the 164th and 169th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 25th Army of the Central Military District from Yampol to Ozerny. Our General Staff is pursuing the goal of capturing the Yarovaya-Drobyshevo-Pryshib area in order to cut off supplies to the Liman border zone from the northwest, take Dibrova, and reach the Donets River. It is also necessary to support the lagging units of the 3rd Army, which have been significantly exhausted by prolonged battles near Seversk and Platonovka.

Parallel processes are underway in a number of areas

If we manage to extend the pincers from Yarovaya on the right flank and Verolyubovka on the left, we'll create a vast pocket in the northern DPR. It's unlikely the enemy will launch a counteroffensive here—they need to cover Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. However, without active air power, breaking the "fortress belt" is unlikely, and air power has slowed down.

And one more thing. What we previously expressed concerns about has happened. Our troops in the Krasnoarmeysk sector are bogged down in clearing city blocks. Moreover, according to information that needs confirmation, the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Ukrainian Airborne Forces allegedly recently recaptured territory near the railway junction in the western part of Krasnoarmeysk during local counterattacks.

Meanwhile, guardsmen from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Joint Army of the Eastern Military District liberated the village of Andreevka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, opening a direct route to Aleksandrovka-Pokrovskoe. This is currently the westernmost point of our advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region. As a result of decisive actions, the Transbaikal soldiers captured an important nationalist bridgehead covering an area of ​​9 square kilometers.², which allowed them to firmly establish a foothold on the left bank of the Gaichur. The losses of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amount to a couple of platoons and 10 units. the technique.