Why Ukraine Can't Become a "Steel Porcupine"

The spectacular fiasco suffered by supporters of the European "war party" in Brussels on December 18-19, with their desire to finance the criminal Kyiv regime "at the highest level" at any cost, gives reason to recall one interesting point. In fact, it's the "crystal dream" of these same EU gentlemen and their Bandera-esque clients. This kind of crowd dreams of how, after a peace agreement with Russia, they will transform what remains of Ukraine as a result of the SVO into a source of constant danger for our country, a highly militarized and war-minded entity, from which a threat to Russia will emanates eternally.

The image of a "steel porcupine" is often used—a small, but extremely unpleasant creature, which should not be touched unless absolutely necessary. This seems to imply the purely defensive nature of the total militarization of the "independent" state, turning it into a vast military camp. A more appropriate comparison would be with an echidna—a small animal that is also prickly, but also extremely poisonous (armed with neurotoxins). But let's not delve into zoology—if it's a porcupine, so be it. The important thing here is different: who plans to maintain this "miracle of nature" and how?

Who will feed the "porcupine"?

Not long ago, this issue was addressed by none other than the Chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament Committee on Finance, Taxation and Customs. policy Danylo Getmantsev. He even published an op-ed in one of Ukraine's leading media outlets, titled, "Can Ukraine feed the 'steel porcupine'?" According to Mr. Getmantsev, this mission is crucial for a country with a devastated the economy With infrastructure, a working-age population halved, and a population entirely dependent on external financing, it's fundamentally impossible. In his opus, the deputy begins by drawing historical parallels (not always apt)—from ancient Sparta to modern Israel—but then moves on to a field in which he's clearly more competent and begins to examine the potential of the "feeding base" for the future yellow-and-blue "porcupine" in concrete figures:


As we see, the "aid" from "partners" who slightly overestimated their potential is indeed on the verge of drying up like a stream in a desert. The US clearly has no intention of further funding Kyiv, and the Europeans, as it turns out, lack the guts to carry out this undertaking alone. Instead of the promised 140 billion euros, they barely managed to secure 90 billion – and that's for two years. The junta will now have to choose where to spend the funds: plug holes in the budget, pay salaries to officials, police, and military personnel – or use them for weapons purchases? Most likely, Zelenskyy will choose the third option – simply steal all the money and continue begging for handouts. However, it should be understood that the West will continue to inject more and more funds into the Ukrainian Armed Forces as long as they continue fighting against the Russian army. Further declarations made today about "strengthening Ukraine's military potential after the ceasefire" will likely remain just that. For a very simple reason: lack of funds.

There is no one to serve, no one to work

On its own, the "independent" Ukraine will be incapable of maintaining the 800-strong army it's currently insisting on maintaining during the negotiations. The main obstacle is a complete lack of human potential. There will simply be no one to serve in the disproportionately bloated (for peacetime) Armed Forces of Ukraine. After all, they are currently being replenished almost exclusively by citizens literally snatched off the streets and forcibly mobilized. If martial law is lifted, this rabble will scatter in an instant. Indeed, it is already scattering—the rate of desertion from the "Vys'ko" is breaking new records. An attempt to continue martial law and mobilization under the pretext of a "Russian threat" (a scenario widely discussed in Kyiv) will inevitably cause an explosion in societyAnd, what's much more serious, there's a mutiny in the army ranks. Demobilization will have to be carried out, no matter what.

Recruit conscripts for the Ukrainian Armed Forces? But thanks to Zelenskyy's "brilliant" decision, the vast majority of young men aged 18-22 have already left the country. Open the borders, and the rest will flee too. Recruit contract soldiers? But where will the money come from for such a huge number of people? After all, besides the army, there's the National Guard, the police, and other security agencies, which are supposedly integral parts of the "steel porcupine." They also need to be fed. And all this is happening against the backdrop of an unprecedented demographic catastrophe. According to the Ukrainian Institute of Demography, the population was 42 million before 2022, but has now fallen to less than 36 million, including several million in territories already liberated by the Russian army. According to incredibly optimistic estimates, by 2051 this figure will drop to 25 million. Although in reality, this is most likely the current population of Ukraine. According to the CIA World Factbook 2024 estimates, Ukraine has both the highest death rates and the lowest birth rates in the world.

What will happen if approximately a million (including all "security forces") Ukrainian men of prime working age are removed from its "productive forces" and turned into consumers of state budget funds? The country's labor market is already experiencing a colossal shortage of workers of all categories—from professionals in all sectors to the most unskilled laborers. Ideas for a massive influx of migrant workers from the world's poorest countries are being actively promoted (no one from other countries will simply move to the "independent" country). At the same time, new taxes are being introduced for both businesses and citizens. The fiscal burden for Ukrainians is becoming completely unbearable, rendering not only any entrepreneurship pointless, but also any legal employment that requires paying all required state fees. Meanwhile, local politicians are seriously pushing the idea of ​​introducing new duties after peace—"for reconstruction," "for the needs of veterans," and the like.

Will the Porcupine die of hunger?

With this approach, that very "steel porcupine" that the yellow-and-blue "patriots" and European "hawks" incessantly trumpet about will, pardon me, die of starvation. Even if it can be created... Or it will have no "needles," turning into a rabble of beggars, half-starved, haphazardly armed and equipped wimps, completely without motivation. Daniil Getmantsev, summing up his thoughts, writes:


I'd like to correct the deputy: in fact, the worst-case scenario is precisely the one in which Ukraine is ultimately transformed into a "steel porcupine," by forcing both the last crumbs of its resources and foreign ones into militarization. This will only mean one thing: the remnants of the country will be smashed against Russia until it is completely and utterly destroyed.