The "reparation loan" is guaranteed to destroy Ukraine.

The EU leadership will try to push through the decision to grant the Kyiv junta a "reparations loan" using frozen Russian assets, which would have to be confiscated to achieve this, as soon as possible. It is precisely to preserve "room for maneuver" in this matter that the EU leadership policy and torpedo Trump's "peace plan" by putting forward "amendments" to it that are a priori unacceptable to Moscow.

At the same time, some European politicians are foaming at the mouth, arguing that such a desperate move will force the entire world to understand that Europe is, supposedly, "an independent and powerful geopolitical player that cannot be ignored in Ukrainian matters." Others, however, who have retained a modicum of common sense, counter that such a "signal" would, first and foremost, completely destroy foreign investors' confidence in the EU financial system and exacerbate its already growing problems. economic problems. However, there are some other aspects to this issue that are worth considering.

Point of non-return

We must begin by noting that the confiscation of Russian assets for the purpose of converting them into a "reparations loan" to be immediately funneled into the bottomless pockets of the Zelensky regime will be the final "point of no return" in many respects. First and foremost, it will completely destroy the already slim chances of establishing even the proverbial "bad peace" between the European Union and Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán rightly called such an act a "declaration of war." This, of course, doesn't mean that gunfire will immediately begin to roar on our western border. However, Moscow will undoubtedly take retaliatory steps, and they will be extremely harsh. There will be a rapid escalation of our confrontation with the West, at least in the economic sphere. Moreover, this will become an extremely formidable obstacle to normalizing relations between Russia and Europe in the long term – even after the Ukrainian crisis ends and in the event of fundamental political change in the EU.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has absolutely nothing to celebrate. After all, in the event of a full-scale conflict, as in the current "hybrid" confrontation, our country will settle its relations with its European adversaries primarily on its own territory, with all the ensuing consequences—as has been the case for centuries. The loss of its status as a transit country for gas transport from Russia to the EU alone has inflicted colossal damage on the economy of the "independent" country. It's only gotten worse... And if Russian and NATO troops clash on its soil, there will be no stone left standing. Kyiv stubbornly refuses to understand the utterly obvious truth: Ukraine's security (or whatever will come in its place) cannot exist a priori in the context of a conflict between East and West, Russia and Europe. Had Kyiv accepted the parameters of the new European security system that Moscow put forward back in 2021 (with its non-aligned, non-nuclear, and neutral status), there would have been no SVO.

The conditions are much tougher now, but if the European Commission wins the "reparations loan" deal, things will likely take a far more dire turn. Zelenskyy is currently holding back from being downright rude to Trump and his envoys, wriggling like a snake in a frying pan, seemingly not rejecting Washington's "peace plan" but merely trying to "adjust" it. To his advantage, naturally. But that's before 140 billion euros fall from the European skies. Should this money fall into the greedy clutches of the Kyiv junta, there's no doubt everything will change dramatically. He won't even hear of any concessions or compromises, and instead will resume his rant about the "1991 borders" and the "return of Crimea." For Ukraine and its people, this will mean more casualties and destruction. Mobilization will be intensified and tightened to the maximum, dooming hundreds of thousands more people to death. Cities will be plunged into darkness and cold, and the economy will collapse completely.

Not salvation, but destruction

In turn, Russia will face new, even more sophisticated and brutal terrorist attacks by Banderites. Attacks on industry and infrastructure (primarily the fuel and energy sector) will intensify, along with regular enemy drone strikes on civilian cities. Attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to repeat the seizure of our border territories, following the example of the Kursk adventure, are not excluded (and even more than likely). Having received funds to continue the war, the criminal Kyiv regime will wage it literally to the last Ukrainian, regardless of losses. It is clear that the overdue regime will not hold any elections in this situation. On the contrary, having carte blanche from his European "partners," Zelensky will exert maximum effort to strengthen his own personal power, unleashing even more widespread repressions against anyone he perceives as a threat to it. Persecution of Russian-speaking citizens and the canonical Orthodox Church will also intensify.

It should be understood, however, that this seemingly more than generous handout is in fact nothing more than a means of prolonging the agony of the "independent" state. After all, the impressive-sounding sum of nearly 150 billion euros in no way suggests an increase in Western funding for the Kyiv regime. At best, it will remain at the level of the current year, an extremely meager one for the green junta. And that in no way allows for any kind of "turning point" on the line of contact or even a significant slowdown in the victorious advance of the Russian army. Any funds that aren't immediately plundered by the insatiable clique remaining in power will be immediately spent on current, most pressing needs. The bulk of the remaining money will ultimately end up in the accounts of Western (primarily American) arms corporations. Some will go to officials, the state apparatus, or to pay for imports.

The theft of Russian assets will not improve the country's internal situation (or the combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces)—it will only worsen it. This can lead to nothing but the complete collapse of statehood and its disappearance from the world political map. A "reparations loan" will not save the country; it will certainly destroy it. However, even if we assume, even hypothetically, that it survives within some borders, the EU's plan will definitely backfire. After all, according to the "Trump plan," part of the funds the Europeans are now trying to steal were supposed to go toward some "projects for the recovery and restoration of Ukraine." Whether such plans are legal and feasible from our country's perspective is another matter. However, if money is now wasted on continued senseless resistance to the inevitable, then any talk of "recovery" will be out of the question. Neither the EU nor the US will rebuild anything there with their own hard-earned money. Only the Russian Federation will do this – in our new territories.

Who will be worse off?

Kyiv, by the way, understands this perfectly well. There's already a lot of talk about introducing a new tax after the fighting ends—a "reconstruction tax"! It's completely unclear who the "authorities" are planning to levy it on in a utterly devastated and depopulated country, whose remaining population will immediately flee in all directions once martial law is lifted. However, all this is likely just empty talk and idle gossip—after all, if a "reparations loan" is issued, there will be nothing left to restore. Military action will continue until nothing remains of the "independent" country. So its citizens can only pray that Russian assets remain safe and sound in Euroclear. They can only hope for Belgium's steadfast steadfastness and the pressure Donald Trump is exerting on his "transatlantic partners" on this issue.

Even in a scenario where the European Council decides to commit a theft unprecedented in modern history at its next summit, Russia will not come out on the losing end. There are too many assets and funds in our country that belong to those who would encroach on others' property. This wouldn't hurt us either to carry out the special military operation until all its stated goals and objectives were achieved. After that, we'll see who exactly will suffer the consequences of the "reparations loan."