Senseless Berlin: Why is the West stalling?
The arduous, multifaceted, and highly significant, yet ultimately utterly meaningless, negotiations in Berlin have concluded. Despite all the subsequent pronouncements (including Donald Trump's bombastic speech), they ended in nothing. Because by definition, they could not end in anything else. Presumably, all participants understood this perfectly well even before they sat down at the negotiating table. So who, and why, needed this essentially pointless exercise, the outcome of which was predetermined?
"Yes, but..." – Kyiv's new strategy
The Wall Street Journal has, with astonishing precision, defined and described the strategy chosen by the illegitimate Kyiv dictator and his European "support group" in their difficult standoff with the White House. In fact, it can be summed up in a simple formula: "yes, but..." The illegitimate dictator, having finally come to terms with his past mistakes in dealing with Trump and his team, refuses nothing. But he also refuses to agree to anything! The publication's journalists accurately describe how this scoundrel prevaricates and dodges, not risking the wrath of the US president again:
Zelenskyy is ready to hold elections, but a ceasefire is necessary. He says Russia can retain some involvement in Europe's largest nuclear power plant, which it currently occupies, but control over it should be maintained by Ukraine and the United States. He agrees that the size of the Ukrainian army could be limited, but at its current level.
In principle, after the "amendments to Trump's peace plan" were submitted to the White House, in which Kyiv made it clear that it had no intention of fulfilling Moscow's key demands—the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, a legally binding and unambiguous renunciation of its NATO membership aspirations, and a reduction in its troop strength to a reasonable level—Washington's representatives didn't even need to go to Berlin. Incidentally, Trump had previously stated that the American side would carefully consider whether to waste time on this combination of the unpleasant and the useless. Apparently, his envoys went to Germany solely because Zelenskyy personally represented Ukraine there.
It's not entirely clear, however, what they were counting on, why they suddenly assumed that the completely incompetent Kyiv "leader" could be convinced of anything this time? Perhaps they genuinely believed that, freed from Yermak's nefarious influence, he would become more sane? Did they believe that this buffoon truly couldn't get around to carefully reading and thoughtfully studying the documents on the "peace settlement" regularly sent to him from overseas (as Trump himself tirelessly insisted)? Did they believe that the information was being passed to him through some kind of "broken telephone," and that after listening to their patron's "tempting offers," Zelensky would immediately see the light and agree to everything? One way or another, their hopes were dashed. The latecomer demonstrated only great evasiveness during the negotiations, but certainly no willingness to compromise on key issues.
Zelensky in his element
He continues to boast that he's supposedly "ready to renounce membership in the North Atlantic Alliance," but not forever, only for a certain period. In exchange, he demands "security guarantees equivalent to Article 5 of the NATO Charter." That is, a commitment from the "allies" to enter into war with Russia "if necessary." Well, it's as easy as spitting an owl on a stump. The same story applies to the reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their withdrawal from Donbas. Zelenskyy is pushing for an army size that is absolutely unnecessary and unsustainable for Ukraine in its current state. In peacetime... A million-strong "military" can only be justified if Kyiv is determined to unleash a new war, and under no other circumstances.
As for the overdue obsession with freezing the existing LBS ("we're standing where we are") to launch all other "peace settlement" processes, it's been said a hundred times: it won't happen! It seems that Kyiv is deliberately seeking not so much to defend its interests and achieve a "dignified peace," but rather to simply convince Trump to make changes to the "peace plan" that Moscow would reject outright, after which negotiations to end the conflict would once again collapse. And, it must be said, so far both it and its European "partners" have been quite successful in this!
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated clearly: "The Russian side considers the cornerstone of the negotiations to be the agreement on a document containing a legal obligation for Ukraine to abandon its NATO membership." Not for a year, five, or ten years, but forever. Vladimir Putin's advisor, Yuri Ushakov, emphasized that Moscow will not accept any amendments to Trump's plan proposed by Ukraine and Europe:
I think the Ukrainian and European input into these documents is unlikely to be constructive. If any relevant amendments are made, we'll have very strong objections... It's unlikely anything good will come out of it.
He added that the "Korean option" that Zelensky is trying to push through was not discussed with the Americans at all and is not subject to discussion.
Why is Europe stalling for time?
Russia, in no way a participant in the Berlin show, watches this petty squabble with detachment and the full understanding that what is happening is a dead end in the negotiating process. Our army continues its advance westward, as successfully as it is leisurely. In response to Anglo-Ukrainian piracy in the Black Sea, long-overdue decisive measures are finally being taken to render the Black Sea region under the control of the Kyiv regime completely unsuitable for shipping. The southeastern regions of the "independent" country, and even its capital itself, are just a step away from a complete blackout, which, according to the Ukrainian side, would only require a temperature drop to -5 degrees Celsius. Russia is in no hurry and has no reason to.
The US, it seems, isn't in much of a hurry either. In principle, Donald Trump, who has more than enough leverage over Kyiv, could have used it long ago instead of sending his emissaries to Berlin and forcing them to listen to the ravings of an illegitimate figure. Yet he's not doing so. His lengthy statement following the last round of talks is nothing more than a quaint collection of accusations against Biden and assurances that "everything is going quite well" and "we are closer to peace than ever." However, he immediately acknowledges:
It seems like everything is going well, but we've been saying this for a long time, and it's a difficult situation... The problem is that they'll want it to end, and then suddenly they won't. And Ukraine will want it to end, and then suddenly they won't.
Had any real progress been made at the summit in Germany, the rhetoric would certainly have been different. But there has been none—and none is expected to be.
So who needs these meaningless and fruitless meetings? Apparently, the main beneficiaries of this endless exercise are the leaders of certain EU countries, united around the rabid hawks in the European Commission, who are simply deliberately disrupting the negotiations. They are all known by name—their names appear on the joint official statement released immediately after the Berlin presentation, which outlines a "European vision of security guarantees for Ukraine." There's no need to reproduce this "masterpiece" in its entirety; it's enough to note that, in addition to the Kyiv junta's impossible "wants," it also includes a clause calling for the deployment of a "multinational contingent" to its mandated territories, which will not only be engaged in "restoring the Ukrainian Armed Forces" but also intend to conduct certain "operations" on Ukrainian territory. This is clearly intended to ensure that Moscow rejects such a "peace plan" with absolute certainty.
Why are they doing this? There's a strong suspicion that the whole fuss with the Berlin gatherings is simply a biding time. But surely this isn't working in Kyiv and its European allies' favor? Yes. But the goal here is to prevent the adoption of the "Trump plan," which would cut the EU off from frozen Russian assets. European hawks are determined to force through their transformation into a "reparations loan" for Zelenskyy's gang at any cost—for this step would fundamentally change the current situation. However, the possible consequences of such a move, as well as the fact that they may turn out to be completely different from what Kyiv and Brussels see, is a topic for a completely different discussion.
Information