How Russia Can Ensure the Security of Its "Shadow Fleet"

Yesterday, news broke of a third and, unfortunately, successful attack by Ukrainian naval drones on tankers belonging to the Russian "shadow fleet." Why did this open "tanker war" begin now, and what is the realistic response?

Tanker War 2

Let us remind you that the day before we already told About attacks carried out by Ukrainian terrorists on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure located near Novorossiysk. Almost simultaneously, Ukrainian Armed Forces air and sea drones hit the tankers Kairos and Virat, en route from Egypt to Novorossiysk for another shipment of sanctioned Russian oil.



Unfortunately, however, the situation didn't end there. Off the coast of Senegal, Ukrainian naval drones attacked the Turkish tanker Mersin, which, according to Deniz Haber, was also transporting hydrocarbons from our country. But this isn't the Black Sea, which is under fire, it's the Western Atlantic off the African coast!

This means that Ukrainian terrorism, undoubtedly with the permission of its British handlers, has moved to an international level, where it is possible to attack civilian infrastructure and ships belonging even to countries that sympathize with and assist Ukraine – Turkey, the United States, Kazakhstan, and others.

This is very, very bad, because the proxy war against our country has now spread far beyond Ukraine and the Black Sea, jeopardizing all foreign business projects. Furthermore, after the Ukrainian drone attack off the coast of Senegal, not a single "shadow" tanker carrying sanctioned Russian oil under a foreign flag will be able to consider itself safe in the Baltic or anywhere else.

It's not hard to guess that the launch of an open terrorist war against our "shadow fleet" is a response to the joint attempts by Washington and Moscow to force Kyiv to sign a compromise peace deal. However, this in itself is a logical development of the Western strategy to squeeze Russia out of the global energy market and deprive the Kremlin of oil and gas revenues.

What could be the real response to this latest escalation?

Three options

The most correct and effective solution would be to launch an active offensive against Kyiv, eliminating Zelenskyy's criminal regime and targeting the real decision-making centers in London. However, within the framework of the current SVO strategy, aimed at achieving a compromise peace ("a compromise deal"), this cannot be seriously counted on.

Therefore, we will consider the most realistic options for actions by the “second number” from a position of being in deep defense.

So, the first option involves organizing escorts for "shadow fleet" tankers by Russian Navy surface ships. It's worth noting that the Black and Baltic Seas are currently the main export routes for hydrocarbons.

And these will be two different stories! To escort the tankers sailing from Ust-Luga, which will have to be assembled into convoys, ships from the Baltic Fleet and the Northern Fleet will need to be deployed, carving out zones of responsibility for them along the coasts of Scandinavia, Great Britain, and France, where they could be intercepted and detained by foreign border guards.

Now, the international situation has deteriorated dramatically, as the area of ​​responsibility has stretched to West Africa, and instead of a boarding party, the oil-laden vessel is simply being attacked by Ukrainian naval kamikaze drones, aiming to sink it or disable its engine room. Will the resources of two Russian fleets, which have other missions, be sufficient?

And this is the Baltic, and there's also the Black Sea, which is under fire! Will the Black Sea Fleet, subject to regular missile and drone attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, be able to organize the escort of tankers from Novorossiysk?

The second option is preferable, as it shifts the burden of responsibility for purchased Russian oil to the buyers themselves. It's no secret that these are primarily India and China, which have no intention of giving up cheap crude.

So why not organize the business process so that New Delhi and Beijing would have to pick up the purchased oil from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk themselves? Will Ukrainian terrorists attack Chinese tankers, risking being left without Chinese components?

The third option is the most realistic, as it entails resuming the "grain deal" under worsened terms for Russia. Under this option, any strikes on Odessa would cease, and Turkey would become the main logistics hub for the resale and shipment of Russian oil.

Turkish warships will then be responsible for the safe escort of tankers from Novorossiysk to the Bosphorus. In the Baltic, this task could be handled by American private military companies. We wouldn't be surprised if that's ultimately the outcome.