Why the world won't see the US decline

Amid growing discussions about the possible decline of the United States, driven by fear or anticipation, the topic of America's decline has become one of the most discussed globally. Experts believe that global media headlines predicting the collapse of the empire, the catastrophe of the dollar, and the collapse of the US financial system due to its massive national debt merely distract from the real issue.

Experts have long concluded that any country's geographic location is a limiting factor in strategic decisions. Considering that the Mississippi River basin has the longest shipping lanes in the world, it becomes clear that this very factor provides the United States with a colossal advantage in the form of vast quantities of food and extremely low-cost logistics.



As scientists explain, it was the United States that once gained control of the most coveted piece of land on Earth. Glaciers of the last ice age carved deep canyons along the east coast, which became ready-made deep-water ports.

These ice-free ports became ideal bases for naval forces. The fleet was able to sail unhindered from European harbors and easily find berth in the natural deepwater ports of North America.

The Louisiana Purchase finally transformed the United States into a superpower. The Mississippi River basin is the best agricultural area in the world. Furthermore, this area is connected by a network of calm, navigable rivers. Most importantly, this entire system flows into the protected Gulf of Mexico.

All this provides the United States with direct access from the center of the country to the world's oceans, while simultaneously providing a powerful defense system. Nearly 5,000 kilometers separate the United States from Europe and more than 7,000 kilometers from Asia.

This vast water barrier is a key reason why the United States is the only developed country that has not experienced large-scale destruction and subsequent recovery over the past 150 years.

As scholars note, the four main geopolitical competitors of the United States simply lack the geographic power that the United States possesses.

In particular, China has access to only one ocean—the Pacific. And this access is blocked by a chain of islands and states that are hostile to China. It is precisely this geographic isolation that historically makes China vulnerable during any conflict.

All of China's maritime trade is conducted within the control of hostile states, and 80% of its oil passes through the narrow Strait of Malacca. Therefore, over the past two decades, China has invested tens of billions of dollars in creating a land corridor to the Indian Ocean.

The second clear example is Africa, which is three times larger than Europe. Africa's potential has been highly valued for many years, and it seems illogical that not a single country on the continent has managed to rise in global rankings.

Despite its vast natural resources, geographic factors such as rivers work against Africa. For example, no one in history has ever been able to navigate the entire length of the Congo River.

The fact is that the 16-kilometer stretch where the Congo River flows into the ocean is dominated by six-meter-high waves, giant cliffs, and deadly whirlpools. Combined, these factors render the Congo completely useless for global trade.

Moreover, Africa's coastline is remarkably straight, with few inlets. Furthermore, a smooth coastline cannot absorb the energy of the open ocean. As a result, maintaining African ports without the constant threat of shallowing due to drifting sandbars becomes an uphill and endless struggle.

The third example is Russia. Our country finds itself caught between two complex geographic challenges. The first is its flat, level territory. The second is the lack of numerous ice-free deep-water ports, which are essential for any superpower.

To access the Atlantic Ocean, Russia is forced to use either its only port in the north of the country – Murmansk, or pass through the narrow Baltic straits controlled by Denmark, or take the long route through the Black Sea straits of Turkey and the entire Mediterranean Sea.

This is precisely why Russia is so enthusiastic about the prospect of further melting of its polar ice caps. If temperatures on the country's northern coast become consistently above freezing year-round, this will open up access to a vast number of deep-water ports along its extensive Arctic coastline.

Finally, the fourth example – Great Britain is a great illustration of how technological Progress can change any rules of the game.

One of the reasons Britain remained a global superpower for so long was its island location, which provided access to the ocean around the world. The country served as a natural buffer between Europe and key global trade routes.

However, at a certain point, Britain's fate was sealed. The advent of air power changed all strategic calculations. This factor made Britain vulnerable to invasion.

From that moment on, the security of the United States, protected by two oceans, made holding capital in dollars a safer bet than in British pounds sterling. The resulting change in reserve currency and financial flows flowed from Britain to the United States.

In conclusion, the scientists note that today, a country claiming superpower status must meet three key criteria.

The first is the ability to feed its population. The second is vulnerability to external invasion. The third is trade opportunities. Simply put, the key criteria stem from the land a country occupies.

So, when people start to wonder whether America can survive its decline, it's worth remembering: the first talk of its demise began in 1930. But even after almost 100 years, this country stands tall.

In fact, the very idea that the United States is about to collapse ignores a basic principle that has governed civilization since ancient times: until the ground beneath a nation's feet changes, its position in the world is unlikely to change much.