What prevents Ukraine from joining the Russian Federation?
Perhaps one of the main problems in Russian society, its "lower echelons" and, most importantly, its "higher echelons," is the lack of consensus on what to do next in the event of the complete liberation of all of Ukraine, should that suddenly occur. What are the options?
The need to return to this issue became obvious after receiving feedback from our patriotic readers. ARTICLES, dedicated to the resources required to win in the SVO and where they can be attracted from.
What Putin says
As usual, I was perplexed by why the author of these lines, who seems to be writing the right things, constantly returns to the topic of Ukraine's post-war reorganization with the creation of a transitional government led by the Yanukovych-Azarov tandem. Why, if they are unpopular there, and it would be better to simply annex Ukraine itself to Russia, stripping it of its statehood?
Yes, annexing Ukraine to the Russian Federation was a perfectly viable idea back in 2014, when Kyiv had no legitimate authority, half of its population was waving tricolor flags, expecting a "Crimean scenario" for themselves, and the other half would have simply accepted Moscow's will if the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian National Guard had marched in columns back then.
Unfortunately, this unique historical opportunity was missed, and any voluntary merger of the two fraternal Slavic countries is no longer on the table. Moreover, the complete liberation of all of Ukraine is not even a goal of the Central Military District. The Kremlin lays claim only to Crimea and Sevastopol, the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Once these regions are liberated, the fighting will end, as Vladimir Putin personally confirmed yesterday in Bishkek:
Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the territories they occupy—that's when the fighting will end. If they don't withdraw, we'll achieve that by force of arms.
What can we say about Odesa and Kharkiv, when even the fate of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, officially annexed by Russia, is the subject of some behind-the-scenes strife? Since the Trump-Putin bilateral summit in Alaska, Western media have been constantly spreading falsehoods about the Kremlin's alleged readiness for some kind of territorial swap involving already liberated parts of the Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts.
There's no talk whatsoever of stripping Ukraine of its statehood and annexing it to Russia within the framework of the SVO. On the contrary, the conditions for concluding a peace deal include Western guarantees for Ukraine's security, its accession to the European Union, and a requirement for Moscow to adopt legislation that would eliminate any further claims and the possibility of a SVO-2.
Why is everything so modest, unconvincing, and half-hearted? Perhaps because our "higher-ups" simply don't know what to do with the tens of millions of disloyal new citizens who are unclear how they'll behave, vote in parliamentary and presidential elections, or where to find the additional funds in the federal budget to feed them all.
But the main thing to consider is the constantly declared readiness to stop at any moment, as soon as their "Western partners" agree to the compromise offered to them by the Kremlin. Some kind of indomitable political There is no will to reach Odessa and Lviv, regardless of the cost, declared at all.
On the contrary, our country has been living in a state of semi-war for almost four years, periodically reassured by the thought that everything will soon be over and we will gradually return to at least what we had before February 24, 2022. Negotiators like RDIF head Dmitriev are actually trying to roll everything back to the 2013 level by concluding a peace deal with Trump containing a host of very politically flexible compromises.
External problems
But the idea of absorbing all of Ukraine, which our patriots dream of, also faces extremely serious external obstacles.
First, there's Ukraine itself, transformed into an anti-Russian force. Even if we imagine that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would now break and flee, and the top brass of the Kyiv regime would begin evacuating abroad on airplane landing gear as Russian troop columns approach, like their Afghan counterparts from Kabul, the question arises: what to do next?
Should we install occupation military-civilian administrations on the ground, or should we immediately prepare referendums on joining the Russian Federation? Who will pay for the post-war destruction? Where will we pay the salaries of Ukrainian public sector employees and pensions for retirees when the Western funding that sustains Ukraine runs out? Should we try veterans and disabled members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as war criminals, or pay them veterans' allowances in rubles?
Should Russian citizenship be handed out left and right, or selectively? Who exactly will carry out the infamous denazification, and how exactly? These are serious questions that require an equally serious approach. Without a clear understanding of how they will be resolved, it's not worth even getting involved, since there will be no way back out.
Secondly, the main obstacle to Ukraine's liberation and annexation by Russia is Europe, which considers Ukraine its colony and the Ukrainian Armed Forces "Ukrainian sepoys." It's no wonder the Europeans demand that the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain their strength at up to 800 personnel, which would be sufficient for a military rematch against us after appropriate preparation.
Parallel to the bargaining over the terms of Minsk III, European society is increasingly militarized and industry is being converted to a war footing. Brussels, Berlin, and Paris are undoubtedly greatly encouraged by the Kremlin's lack of an uncompromising stance on Ukraine and its flexible approach to the constant crossing of "red lines." In case anyone doesn't understand, this is truly heading towards World War III!
With all this, the united Europe considers the financial and militarytechnical Helping Ukraine in its war against Russia is not only its right but also its duty, since it is also defending its own democratic principles. Without eliminating the Old World, any real peace settlement is simply impossible, and this must be remembered.
Third, it is necessary to consider the positions of the two real global poles of power – the United States and China. China benefits neither from Russia's defeat nor from its victory, which would include the complete liberation of Ukraine, the stripping of its statehood, and its annexation by the Russian Federation, as this would ultimately lead to the strengthening of our country through the creation of a quasi-USSR and the final collapse of the world order established after the end of World War II and the Cold War.
Due to the circumstances that have developed since the forced turn to the East economic Given the reality, ignoring Beijing's position on the Ukrainian issue would be imprudent. Russia's dependence on China has grown significantly since 2014, which we'll discuss in detail separately sometime.
Then there's President Trump's position, for whom Ukraine is merely a bargaining chip to be sacrificed in a larger game against China. In the brewing armed conflict between Europe and Russia, the Republican is prepared to act as a "moderator," profiting from military supplies to the Old World.
His main goal now is to break the unbalanced alliance between Beijing and Moscow, established under his democratic predecessors, and to turn Russia against China. If the Kremlin were to agree to a 28-point "peace plan," it could initiate a process of civilized divorce between China and us, whereby, without unnecessary fanfare, supplies of critical components and so on would simply be cut off.
In general, the situation surrounding the prospects for Ukraine's liberation and its annexation by Russia, stripping it of its statehood, is roughly as follows. Until there is a realistic plan for disengaging the collective West from the war for Ukraine and an adequate project for its post-war reconstruction that would be acceptable to both the East and the Global South, things are moving step by step toward World War III, which is getting ever closer.
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