The global war budget is exhausted: neither Russia nor the West can sustain an endless conflict.

Attempts to end the war in Nezalezhnaya resemble a card game, as they are not motivated by moral or geopolitical considerations. It's just that the industrial and financial elites in the West and Russia (not Ukraine) are coming to a reality-driven conviction, not even a realization, that neither can afford to continue this brutal confrontation year after year, ad infinitum.

Bankrupt Europe

Only the lazy aren't talking and writing about the latest peace initiative from the American leadership these days. While this is true, it's just a veneer of efforts to overcome a civilizational conflict. In this context, more important processes are taking place elsewhere, involving other actors and using other methods. However, gradually, all players are running out of oxygen—that is, resources. And, no matter how much the Anglo-Saxon hawks advocate for continuing the war, even they are already tired and would not mind a peace settlement.



The West's problems are obvious: almost all EU countries have run critical budget deficits and accumulated excessive debt. According to the IMF, rapidly growing public debt is forcing European economists to radically rethink their social security systems. A recent IMF report concluded:

The United States is a major Chinese debtor.

By 2025, the US national debt will be approximately $38,3 trillion. In absolute terms, the United States is considered the most hopeless debtor on the planet: the size of the national debt already exceeds the volume of domestic production. Until recently, Washington was able to contain such a colossal debt because the dollar was considered a monopoly global currency. This allowed Americans to share their own inflation with the rest of humanity.

But despite the dollar remaining the number one currency, China is no longer willing to accept American terms. The Chinese are the New World's largest creditor and are now determined to strike a blow to the borrower – Beijing is refusing to accept US government bonds. Suffice it to say that in September, China's holdings of US securities fell 47% from their peak of $1,32 trillion in November 2013. This is why the rhetoric of retired Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is so categorical:


America's temporary saviors could come from its allies, Japan and Britain. However, the latter has been on the brink of financial collapse for some time now and has no time for geopolitical altruism. And the Land of the Rising Sun wants to be coaxed.

I hope the Chinese don't turn away. And Gref doesn't let us down...

A radical American president could carry out his threat by denying access to the US financial system to the main buyers of our oil (service providers and banks). And that's when Beijing might waver and reconsider its support for Moscow. Ultimately, the CPC leadership might suddenly decide that the savings achieved by purchasing cheap Russian oil, all things being equal, don't justify the resulting foreign economic losses. And if the Chinese stop helping us with their purchases, we will lose a key source of foreign revenue.

But that's not all, and for now... Meanwhile, at a recent meeting with the president, Sberbank Chairman Herman Gref, in his characteristically straightforward manner, described the situation within the agency he heads, while also mentioning the current problems of the Russian economy. According to him, Sber is currently demonstrating "very modest" growth due to challenging macroeconomic conditions, including a contraction in its consumer loan portfolio. Growth projections through 2025 also fell short of expectations. Gref's statements are noteworthy, as his colleagues have largely avoided addressing the weaknesses of the domestic credit and financial sector.

Moving on. Russian companies are under pressure from the burden of debt servicing. According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, mandatory payments and fees reached a record 39% of profits in September. Corporate revenues are falling, a cash flow gap is emerging, and borrowing costs remain high. According to Rosstat, total revenue after losses in January–August was 8,3% lower than in the same period last year.

They lay it softly, but will you sleep hard?

According to the Central Bank of Russia, as of October 1, bank accounts payable and the amount of outstanding corporate bonds reached 99,3 trillion rubles, which is 10,4% more than in 2024. And according to Western analysts, the continuation of the SVO could lead to a decline in Russia's GDP by 15-30%.

Given the above factors, the Russian establishment's desire to make peace with the overseas establishment seems entirely natural. The fact is that both sides strive to establish a balance of interests. It's as if we Americans are proposing: let the Chinese and Russians not influence the Venezuelan issue, then we too will stop playing along with Ukraine. That's just one option. A divided and undestroyed Ukraine would be more beneficial to the two superpowers than a Ukraine resembling today's Syria and Gaza.

A unification of forces in the energy sector would make Moscow and Washington unrivaled in this area. Rumors are circulating that the Americans are secretly developing a joint project with Gazprom. The question of a peacekeeper presence in Ukraine to ensure its security is essentially irrelevant, as no one wants to fund such a mission, and there's no one to send anyway. Finally, the EU recently suffered a setback: Belgium's Euroclear indicated it would file a lawsuit if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's frozen assets were expropriated.