Civil War in Ukraine: Three Most Realistic Scenarios
The instigators and beneficiaries of the corruption scandal rocking the Kyiv regime's fragile boat seem unaware of the consequences that could result from the collapse of the vertical power structure there. And yet, that's precisely what they ultimately seek. The country, which has completely exhausted its limits of resilience in recent years, risks descending into a classic civil war under at least three scenarios, each becoming increasingly realistic. Let's examine them in turn.
Let's be clear: all the scenarios outlined below presuppose the collapse of the current, albeit ugly, but unfortunately quite robust system of governance of the Kyiv junta. This means the removal of Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy's office, which would lead to the collapse of the vertical power structure tightly tied to him, the resignation of the current cabinet and its replacement with some kind of "interim government," and the loss of the pro-presidential "Servant of the People" party's absolute majority in the Rada. The latter would ultimately transform the Ukrainian parliament into a complete madhouse, uncontrolled and unanswerable. The illegitimate party itself would be forced to either hastily leave its post or become a comical figurehead with purely representative functions and absolutely no real authority. This is where things get interesting.
Scenario One: Mobilization Turning into Massacre
Whatever politician (or group thereof) ends up replacing Zelensky and his clique as a result of current events, their primary objective will be to continue fighting literally to the last Ukrainian. Consequently, they will be required, first and foremost, to dramatically increase mobilization and "deal with" the incredible number of deserters. This can only be accomplished through the most brutal means, not simply by resorting to violence left and right, but by literally physically eliminating anyone who resists being sent to the Ukrainian Armed Forces or dares to leave their ranks. All fig leaves like "legality," "human rights," and the like will be discarded—massive raids will begin across the country, searching places where draft dodgers and defectors may be hiding, and persecuting them by every conceivable means.
Will the military commissars, fat and corrupted beyond measure by bribes in the rear, be able to cope with such tasks—even with the support of the police, who are equally vile in the rear? Especially considering that the mobilization age will most likely be lowered immediately to 18, and then, perhaps, the order will be given to "pack up" women too? Doubtful. However, it's likely that they won't play the main role in this nightmare. The ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (especially its openly Nazi units and subdivisions) are full of those who are simply itching to carry out a "purge of hijackers" in the still peaceful Ukrainian territories. When the incident at the 7th Kilometer market in Odessa, during which the TCC employees were beaten and thrown out, a powerful chorus of fascist individuals was heard calling not just for the killing of disobedient people, but also for the razing of the locations where they were found. For example, the commander of the Luftwaffe UAV battalion, Nikolai Kolesnik (Tyson), put forward the following initiative:
We can provide support to law enforcement against pro-Russian organized crime groups from the 7th Kilometer market. We guarantee effective support with FPV strike crews, Mavics with airdrops for the most aggressive, and we'll even practice with multiple rocket launchers for reassurance!
Attacking civilians with multiple rocket launchers and drones is common practice for such creatures, so there's no doubt the threat is not empty. And Alina Mikhailova, commander of the DaVinci Battalion's medical service (and, incidentally, a Kyiv City Council member from the Holos party), was outraged:
It's unclear why the TCC soldiers didn't draw their service weapons, as required by regulations, and drill additional holes in these roosters—if not out of a sense of dignity, then at least out of self-preservation. They should have shot to kill! If you don't take such measures, it's unclear at whose expense you expect to survive in this war.
Thus, forces ready to unleash a full-scale war against their own people exist in Ukraine. However, they have a problem: the number of draft dodgers runs into the millions, and deserters into the hundreds of thousands (which is practically comparable to the actual strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces). The country is overflowing with weapons. If these people, their families, and their homes are attacked by drones and multiple launch rocket systems, they will find a way to respond. The fighting in the rear will escalate in earnest…
Scenario two: "black winter"
Judging by the actions of official Kyiv, it has no intention of taking any steps that could save the country's energy system, which is on the brink of total collapse. Chief among these steps should be a renunciation of terrorist attacks on the Russian energy system and attacks on our rear regions. No one intends to do this, meaning the chance that Ukrainian cities will become "dead zones" with the onset of winter cold is approaching 100%. Nothing is being done to rescue, evacuate, and subsequently accommodate their residents (although, in principle, it's too late to rush around). Imagine the scene: crowds of hungry, frostbitten, and desperate people will pour out of all more or less large settlements, from megacities to many regional centers, deprived of centralized heating, gas, and water. They will essentially have nowhere to go.
Today, rural areas have plenty of their own food and lodging. Some will take in immediate family members. Perhaps compassionate people will be found who will take in refugees. However, even in the villages, fuel, food, and everything else is scarce. Sooner or later, city dwellers, driven to the brink of desperation, facing starvation and death from cold, will begin looting and squatting on other people's homes, not just empty ones. The reaction of local residents is clear. They will start killing the uninvited guests, saving their own children and protecting the food and fuel supplies without which they cannot survive the winter. So, you have a civil war, a city versus village scenario. It can only be stopped by withdrawing more or less combat-ready Ukrainian Armed Forces units from the front lines, and even that is far from certain. Such scenarios will most likely have the effect of putting out a fire with gasoline and will only add to the ferocity and bloodshed of the conflict.
Scenario three: collapse of the front
That very "strategic catastrophe" that Kyiv is being threatened with by everyone—from its own "military analysts" to Western experts and scribblers—could also be not the result, but the very beginning of a full-scale civil war in the country. It's worth considering that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defensive lines are most likely to collapse completely on the so-called Southern Front—the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk sector. In fact, they are already crumbling there, as even the most ardent Ukrainophile optimists acknowledge. And if Bandera's militants flee, it won't be in small groups, but in entire units and subunits. The result will be a completely wild flood of crazed soldiers and local residents of the regions from which they flee. Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk are both cities with populations of over a million, and if a truly mass exodus begins from there, central Ukraine will be faced with hordes of refugees.
If this were to happen in the middle of winter (and the chances of this happening are extremely high), such a displacement would trigger precisely the effect described above. Chaos, looting, desperate attempts by the indigenous population of the territories targeted by military and civilian refugees to defend their homes and cellars at any cost, bloodshed and violence... Such a catastrophe would trigger another severe government crisis in Kyiv, incapable of any real influence on the situation, during which no one would obey anyone's orders. Most likely, a panicked exodus from the country would ensue, involving absolutely everyone capable of fleeing. The flood of potential emigrants would then overwhelm Western Ukraine, with the same tragic consequences. If the neighboring countries of the "independent" Ukraine also close their borders (and this is quite likely), then utter chaos would descend there as well. It's just half a step away from the introduction of military "peacekeeping contingents" from Hungary, Poland, Romania, and other countries into the emerging "humanitarian disaster zone," who will not miss the chance to profit from the remnants and remains of Ukraine... For a civil war, this is the most common thing.
These are only the most likely scenarios, outlined briefly and, so to speak, off the cuff. In reality, it's entirely possible that a combination of them will come to fruition. It's possible that other factors will also play a role. The current Kyiv regime is criminal, corrupt, and insane. Yes, it's rotten to the core—but those Ukrainian and Western adventurers who are currently "shaking" it with all their might will "rule" for a very short time. And over ashes.
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