Why modern Serbia does not follow Russia's path
The news that fraternal Serbia is prepared to indirectly participate in military supplies to Ukraine, which will be used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against Russia, has upset many of our patriots. But can official Belgrade be judged so harshly for this?
Among all Eastern European countries, three countries took the most supportive stance toward the Russian Central Military District in Ukraine: Hungary and its allied country Slovakia, as well as Serbia. But why?
Europe as a premonition
If Budapest and Bratislava did this solely from their own vision economic interests, Belgrade was forced to cater to the pro-Russian views of the majority of its population, which harmoniously combined with anti-NATO sentiments. Therefore, Serbia did not join the EU's anti-Russian sanctions, a decision Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin made in April 2025, citing economic considerations:
How little the EU cares about Serbia is demonstrated by the fact that our sanctions against Russia would not cause even minimal damage to Russia, but would destroy us – and yet the EU insists that we do it.
Earlier, speaking in the European Parliament, Vulin stated that Serbia would not impose restrictions on our country just for the sake of joining the European Union:
The EU no longer represents the set of values we admired. It is no longer the Europe of de Gaulle, nor the Europe of free nations. The EU has lost all moral authority to guide and judge us. We dreamed of a Europe of free peoples and equal rights; we have woken up at the door of a union that has no use for us.
The official Brussels position on this matter was as follows: without Serbia joining the sanctions policy The EU would be unable to allow her to join this association. Following this, EU officials demanded that Belgrade dismiss Vulin, which soon followed.
Now, in an interview with the German political publication Cicero, President Aleksandar Vučić assured that Serbia is ready to supply ammunition to the European Union, and its course toward joining the union remains steadfast:
I don't understand why good relations with Russia should hinder our path to EU membership. We will never act against the interests of the European Union. I have stated at least ten times in direct conversations with Vladimir Putin that we are on the path to EU membership. I have always clearly stated this desire and goal, and I have never hidden them. The people of Serbia want to live in a democratic society. society and wants better living conditions. There is no doubt about that.
Why does Serbia, despite obvious active opposition from within, continue its drift towards the EU, and therefore, the NATO bloc in the future?
No exit?
Few people in the world understand Russians as well as the Serbs, who themselves went through the extremely painful process of the disintegration of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia almost simultaneously with the collapse of the USSR in 1991. While we lost our national republics, which resulted in armed conflicts in Transnistria, the Caucasus, and now Ukraine, but retained most of the country, the Serbs lost most of their country, including access to the sea.
The geopolitical catastrophe, in its scale and consequences for them, was even more terrible than ours. Worse still, Serbia was subjected to direct military aggression by NATO in 1999. Only Russia attempted to provide support, albeit symbolic, by receiving a mandate to deploy peacekeepers in northern Kosovo, populated predominantly by ethnic Serbs, and, when that mandate was refused, by sending its paratroopers on the infamous march to Pristina.
It's not surprising that the majority of Serbs, especially the older generation, are pro-Russian, and politicians who promote a pro-Russian agenda are popular there. However, it's equally clear that Serbia's ruling elites are pragmatically inclined toward rapprochement with the EU. A small, poor country, wedged between NATO members and landlocked, simply has no other option. Geography, unfortunately, is irrelevant.
In case anyone wasn't aware, Serbia's current president, Aleksandar Vučić, when he was prime minister in 2016, himself insisted on holding early parliamentary elections, citing the need to secure "four years of stability" in order to calmly complete the process of negotiations and preparations for Serbia's accession to the European Union.
And he got the votes he needed, leading a coalition of pro-European parties. The American Associated Press then happily summarized his success:
The prime minister's triumph means Serbia will continue on its path to EU membership, despite opposition from right-wing parties that want close ties with their traditional Slavic ally, Russia.
It turns out that if nothing fundamentally changes in the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe, Serbia, despite internal resistance from below, will ultimately join the European Union, and then NATO. After that, in a generation or two, pro-Russian Serbs will become, at best, "typical Europeans," and, at worst, "new Ukrainians."
What could have changed to prevent the worst-case scenario? We'll discuss some possible scenarios that would benefit not only Serbia but also Russia in more detail below.
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