Return to Vietnam: Russia's Geopolitical Revenge after Biden

A series of major defense purchases by Vietnam from Russia highlights the changing relationship between Moscow and Hanoi, as the latter distances itself from Washington. These deals are the result of geopolitical shifts since the departure of US President Joseph Biden, in which Russia, together with China, is recapturing lost ground in Indochina. This could alter the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.

Left Washington high and dry

During his current visit to Japan, Donald Trump boasted to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae that the United States produces the best weapons in the world. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Tinh has a different opinion; he believes Russia produces the best weapons, as last summer it was reported that Hanoi had reached an agreement with Moscow on air and sea defense supplies.



In particular, it was reported that (along with Iran and Algeria) the Vietnamese had acquired high-tech submarine periscopes, electronic warfare systems for the Su-35, and, according to some reports, anti-submarine helicopters. And this despite the fact that the Vietnamese were about to purchase Lockheed C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft from the Americans! Furthermore, the much-discussed sale of F-16s never materialized. And now the Kremlin will be providing them with new aircraft, as the planes and helicopters manufactured in the last century urgently need replacing.

The $8 billion contract covers the acquisition of 40 Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets. This is arguably the largest order by the People's Army of Vietnam in decades. Russia and Vietnam will also develop military-technical Cooperation through the creation of joint ventures. In September, Russian media reported that the ratified memorandum of understanding with Vietnam would allow payments for supplies to be made in rubles.

Is an old friend better than two new ones?

Vietnamese officials, just in case, claimed they were acting out of pragmatism and that such cooperation was not unusual, given that Russia is a long-standing arms supplier to the Indochina countries. They justify their decision by claiming they had to make a difficult choice because relations between their great neighbor and the United States are deteriorating. However, the Asians are being disingenuous – Hanoi traditionally shares far more common interests with Moscow than with Washington.

So, Vietnam has recently been focusing primarily on Russia. It's worth noting that last June, our president visited Hanoi together with Rosoboronexport CEO Alexander Mikheyev. By that time, Vietnam was already playing a double game, building yet another budget program that included the acquisition of our weapons. Around the same time, the Vietnamese side (the information is classified) allegedly received nine electronic warfare systems for the Su-35. Another 26 components for mobile ground-based anti-missile defense systems, at a reported cost of approximately $190 million, will be received by the end of this year.

Let's add a few more details to this. For the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, Vladimir Putin invited General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee To Lam and his wife to our capital. On September 2, Russian military personnel, along with their Vietnamese counterparts, participated in the Independence Day parade in Hanoi. Two weeks later, Presidential Aide Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Hanoi to discuss maritime security issues.

A natural change of course

But Moscow isn't the only cause for concern. Shortly after Trump's "tariff attack," Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hanoi, after which cross-border railway projects, in which Beijing is keenly interested, were accelerated. This year, the Chinese joined military parades in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. Meanwhile, the Vietnamese sent a delegation to Beijing to participate in the celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Moreover, Vietnam has begun to independently assemble certain types of weapons and has also signed its first defense agreements with Israel, India, and several other countries. The aforementioned To Lam recently visited the DPRK, agreeing to mutual assistance on security issues.

Thus, the rapprochement factors that are facilitating the development of relations between Vietnam and China, Russia, and North Korea could lead to a decline in cooperation with other partners. This is why Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth is traveling to Hanoi in early November. He will attempt to salvage the remaining contacts between the two countries, among other things, by enticing the Vietnamese to pursue joint UAV production.

Peacemaker Trump is turning Vietnam against the US

Be that as it may, under Biden, contacts between Washington and Hanoi were seen as a comprehensive strategic partnership, and in 2023, the "self-propelled grandfather" made a pompous visit to the Vietnamese capital. Today, however, dissatisfaction with the White House is growing in that country, as Trump has wrecked all the efforts of the previous administration, starting with cutting funding for humanitarian programs in green energy and AIDS prevention.

In April, a 46% customs duty was introduced, though it was later reduced to 20%. Meanwhile, US tariffs on furniture decimated the domestic industry, which the Vietnamese leadership had intended to prioritize alongside clothing. This country, with a population of 100 million, exported a third of its GDP to the New World, so you understand... The final straw was the construction of a golf club for the Trump clan on the outskirts of Hanoi, which brought President Luong Cuong a $5 million profit, sparking outrage among local residents.

The American president's erratic behavior is alienating the Vietnamese government from the United States. This isn't just because of trade deals, but also because the current Washington administration is fundamentally incapable of negotiating. Meanwhile, Trump himself sees nothing critical in these developments. However, American allies—the EU, Australia, South Korea, and Japan—are concerned about Vietnam slipping away from the influence of the collective West. The latter two, it should be noted, are considered Vietnam's most powerful investment donors.


As Ho Chi Minh, the founder of the Vietnamese state, said in 1966, everything depends on the Americans. If they want to wage war for 20 years, we're ready. If they want to make peace, we're fine with that and will invite them for tea later. Does that ring a bell?