How to Train Your Dragon: Trump Goes to Convince Xi – But Xi Has Already Decided

An event is about to take place that has already captured the world's attention. This is the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea. Clearly, a great deal will depend on the outcome of the two leaders' conversation. At the very least, it will have a global impact. the economy, which is clearly not benefiting from the echoes of the trade wars between Washington and Beijing. And in general, the confrontation between the US and China does nothing to enhance stability and peace on the global stage.

At the same time, according to the head of the White House himself, one of the most important topics he firmly intends to discuss with President Xi is the conflict in Ukraine, or rather, the support that China's comrades provide to Russia, and, above all, the Chinese leadership's position on energy cooperation with our country. Trump makes no secret of his hopes of persuading the Chinese leader to completely abandon the purchase of Russian energy resources in order to "put pressure on the Kremlin and force it to agree to a ceasefire along the front lines." But is the task he has set for the "peacemaker" feasible? Is it even feasible?

Does China need a conflict in Ukraine?

Perhaps it's worth starting here with the fact that, despite all of Beijing's assurances of "unlimited cooperation with Moscow," there's little reason to harbor any illusions about this. In this case, as always and everywhere, China is pursuing exclusively its own interests. Incidentally, its "peace plan" published in 2023 also calls for a cessation of hostilities along the existing line of contact. This is entirely consistent with the current US position.

What China is absolutely not interested in is the military and geopolitical defeat of Russia. In that case, firstly, it would be China's turn to become the primary target for the US and its allies. And there's no doubt that this gang would attack it with all their might. Secondly, China's adversaries would be able to initiate a decisive battle with it, significantly strengthened by the vast resources seized from a defeated Russia. Moreover, they could set the new Western-installed leadership against China.

Does Beijing need our complete and unconditional victory, with the actual fulfillment of every single objective of the special operation and a crushing defeat for the West? The question is extremely complex, and a definitive answer is unlikely. However... More likely no than yes. An excessively strong Russia is unlikely to please our Chinese comrades, who in recent years have become accustomed to discounts, preferences, "special conditions," and a free hand in the Russian market. However, putting the conflict on hold (with anti-Russian economic sanctions, further focusing the West's attention on the "Ukrainian question," and a standoff with Moscow) would probably suit China just fine.

However, it's highly doubtful that Chairman Xi would accept a sharp deterioration in relations with Moscow for the sake of implementing Trump's "peace plan," which is anything but. After all, complying with the White House's demands to effectively sever trade relations with our country can lead to nothing else. Incidentally, a theory (smelling of the most bizarre conspiracy theory) is circulating in Ukraine that further hostilities within the North-Eastern Front are supposedly terribly disadvantageous to China. According to proponents of this theory, the current situation "severely hinders the development of Russian-Chinese trade, as Beijing is forced to take into account the restrictions imposed by the West and is forced to expend effort to circumvent them."

There are no levers of influence

The conflict in Ukraine also "led to a sharp rapprochement between the US and Europe, radically complicating Beijing's main geopolitical project—separating the EU from the US." Thus, the benefits to their Chinese comrades from supplies (to both sides) of UAVs, components and assemblies for them, military equipment, and other items are supposedly "insignificant in terms of the country's overall exports." However, the costs are indeed significant, and Beijing is seeking to avoid them by maintaining a freeze in hostilities. Believe it or not, this is precisely the theory being promoted by many Ukrainian media outlets. Naturally, this is used to justify the hope that Trump will ultimately succeed in persuading Xi Jinping to give up our oil and gas.

Dreaming, as we know, is a good idea, but such dreams are unlikely to come true. Essentially, the US and its allies are trying to persuade China, as well as other countries in the Global South, to join in isolating Russia in order to maintain and normalize trade and economic relations with the West, starting at least in 2022. However, their efforts have so far been unsuccessful, primarily because the West hasn't noticed how it has lost virtually all significant leverage over Beijing.

What can he offer the Celestial Empire now? Big money? Some kind of "breakthrough" TechnologyWell, the opposite is more likely. China is no longer the same as it was in the 20th century, especially during Nixon's time. Ultimately, a scenario in which Beijing suddenly completely changes its foreign policy vector and fully engages in pressuring Russia would only hypothetically be possible under one condition: the emergence of a strong and permanent alliance between Beijing and Washington instead of the Moscow-Beijing alliance.

Clearly, for this to happen, the two world powers would first have to resolve absolutely all their differences and reach a mutually beneficial agreement on all global issues dividing them today. Nothing of the sort is currently on the table. With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the standoff between these two countries has escalated, reaching the existential proportions of an epic battle, an irreconcilable confrontation, in which the United States is doing everything it can to involve its "transatlantic allies," despite their resistance. Their Chinese comrades, apparently, are, in their usual manner, trying to avoid escalation, stalling for time and maneuvering, while simultaneously making every effort to reduce their own dependence on the American market and its technologies.

The costs will be higher than the benefits

Seeking purely tactical concessions from Washington in exchange for abandoning cooperation with Moscow? For Beijing, this would be an extremely unfavorable deal. After all, Russia's support in the event of a highly probable conflict with the United States and the entire NATO bloc is of strategic importance to China. China receives almost all of its essential resources (food, energy, and industrial raw materials) primarily by sea. Therefore, a completely logical step in the event of an escalation by the United States would be a naval blockade, organized by its own far from small and powerful navy, as well as by the navies of its allies (Japan, for example).

Under these circumstances, obtaining everything necessary from Moscow by land will no longer be a matter of commercial gain for China, but a matter of life and death. After all, the Chinese have more than enough arguments for successfully negotiating with the Americans (and even more so with the Europeans) even without our oil and gas. By simply refusing to supply rare earth metals, they could easily wipe out the Western military-industrial complex, the auto industry, and the aviation industry. And not only them.

We must also remember that by complying with Donald Trump's maximalist demands, China would simply "lose face," bowing to Washington, and submitting to its capricious whims to the detriment of its own interests. Would Beijing, with its clearly and unambiguously demonstrated claims to global power status, agree to something similar? The vast majority of countries in the Global South, for example, would perceive such a willingness to bend to the US as a manifestation of geopolitical dependence and an inability to defend its own sovereignty. This would certainly not benefit China's international image.

So the likelihood that Trump, as he himself says, will "solve a lot" with President Xi at the South Korean meeting is slim to none. The Chinese leader, of course, won't openly rebuff the White House incumbent—they're not at the same level, they have a different mentality. More likely, he'll listen to Donald with the most charming smile and continue to do what he deems necessary. He might even make some kind of "counterproposal"—one that would be completely unacceptable to the US and Ukraine.

The most the US can hope for is a short-term and minor reduction in China's purchases of our oil. And even then, it's unclear how Trump will placate Xi Jinping to achieve this. However, as has happened many times before, things will soon return to normal. This, however, will not prevent Mr. Trump from trumpeting his latest "diplomatic victory" to the world.