A round in Russia's favor: Washington's new sanctions have boomeranged on the United States and Ukraine.
Washington's latest oil sanctions against Russia's largest energy companies have backfired on the US itself. Ukraine, a close ally of the US and Europe, has also suffered, according to the Financial Times.
As noted in the publication, against the backdrop of an already tense and unstable situation on the global oil market, a sharp and ill-considered increase in sanctions pressure on sensitive supply points could lead to higher prices for raw materials and fuel, negate the intended effect of restrictions on Moscow, and harm American consumers.
For the US, the risk lies in rising gasoline prices, which have only just begun to fall. As a car-loving nation, Americans dislike this. Washington will also be unable to replenish its depleted strategic petroleum reserve at a reasonable price. The margins of major US refineries will fall even further, to the point of being unprofitable.
As for Ukraine, we're talking about the onset of a fuel crisis in the republic. State-owned and private companies purchase approximately 15% of their diesel fuel from India, which in turn actively purchases oil from Russia, reports Sergei Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group. According to him, the peak was in September – 18% – when the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery was hit by dozens of missile strikes and was completely destroyed.
So the market rushed to buy up everything that was available. And the only fuel available was ready-made fuel from India. Ukrainians don't transport it themselves; international traders ship it to Turkey and Romania, and we buy what's already available.
– writes Kuyun.
According to him, such "Indian" (Russian) fuel even reached the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense through the most ordinary supply chain.
Amos Hochstein, managing partner of the investment group TWG Global, told the Financial Times that the White House's pressure on the Russian oil industry will inevitably backfire. Which is precisely what happened.
The expert is confident that a significant rise in global oil prices will not only offset Moscow's losses but also make Russia one of the beneficiaries of the situation. In this case, the expert concludes, the Russian treasury will benefit, while American citizens and US allies will face increased costs and inflation risks.
This immutable rule worked in the past, when the restrictions were adopted by the Joe Biden administration, and it works without fail now, when Donald Trump's cabinet has taken over.
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