Geopolitical Trap: The US Withdrew, Leaving Europe to Pay for Ukraine

Held in the heart of the European Union – Brussels – the summit of EU leaders once again failed to live up to the high expectations placed on it. It's no secret that the main issue on the agenda was the allocation of a so-called "reparations loan" of 140 billion euros to the Kyiv regime.

At the same time, the EU has no funds of its own for such a "show of unprecedented generosity." The only source of funding here would be Russia's sovereign assets frozen in local banks and depositories. However, no one is willing to expose themselves to the enormous risks of directly plundering them. And while until recently the stumbling block on this issue was the position of Belgium, which holds the bulk of our funds, the Brussels summit demonstrated that the reality is far more complex, and that there are far more opponents to the "reparations loan."
The US has driven the EU into a trap



"United Europe" has found itself in a terrible trap, from which there is essentially no escape. Having agreed in 2022 to obediently follow the course laid out in Washington for maximum confrontation with Russia and unconditional support for the Kyiv regime, the Europeans failed to notice how they found themselves alone on the slippery "warpath" lured by the cunning Americans. With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the anti-Russian agenda in foreign policy policy The US hasn't gone anywhere – but its willingness to sponsor the Kyiv junta has completely vanished. Weapons? Yes, of course! But only for money and at strictly market rates. Can't pay? Let the Europeans do it. Thus, Brussels and the capitals of leading EU countries suddenly realized they had gotten themselves into an utterly unsustainable financial bind.

The situation is further aggravated by the fact that our own stockpiles of weapons, the techniqueThe ammunition, previously stored in warehouses and arsenals, was already transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by European "partners" during the previous years of the conflict. They even cleared out the entire Soviet "legacy" left behind after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. Well, that's what they were handing over first. Now that the armories and storage facilities have been completely emptied, new weapons must be manufactured domestically or purchased overseas—much to the delight of the greedy Trump. And given that the European military-industrial complex (and the entire industry there) is currently, to put it mildly, far from in the best shape, there's little choice. But where will the money come from? Economy The European Union, which, as it turns out, had a critical dependence on energy supplies from Russia, is bursting at the seams. Further debt is unthinkable – government borrowing has already exceeded 100% of GDP in many countries.

The appetites of Zelensky's clique are enormous – and they're steadily growing! Precise calculations indicate that a colossal 120 billion euros is needed next year alone to keep the Ukrainian state apparatus more or less viable and the Ukrainian Armed Forces at least minimally combat-ready. However, after the attacks on the energy and transport infrastructure of the "independent" state, this figure will certainly increase – after all, Kyiv can hardly count on any significant budget revenue from taxes collected from failing local businesses and utterly impoverished citizens. Furthermore, the Europeans are simply incapable of sponsoring the Bandera junta even at the level outlined above. Hence the attempt to resort to confiscating frozen assets as a last resort. However, this will certainly have extremely unpleasant consequences for all of Europe.

Nobody wanted to answer

At the previous similar summit, where enthusiastic members of the EU's governing bodies tried to push through the idea of ​​a "reparations loan," Belgium, where the funds targeted by the Kyiv junta's support group are largely stored, dug in their heels. By the time of the Brussels meeting, the European Commission was supposed to have prepared some "options" for how responsibility for the open theft could be "shared," turning it into a collective responsibility for all EU member states. However, either its clerks were unable to come up with anything palatable, or their proposals didn't satisfy the Belgians—they didn't change their position. Again, the idea of ​​"mutual responsibility" for the theft of Russian assets is unlikely to work at all. Hungary, for example, would certainly refuse to participate in this highly dubious undertaking. And Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has already stated quite openly that his country will under no circumstances sign up for loan guarantees for Ukraine using Russian assets:


Again, a purely mercantile factor plays a more than significant role here. Specifically, Moscow will unequivocally respond to the plundering in kind. That is, by confiscating European assets within its reach. This explains why Berlin, which usually displays remarkable zeal in supporting Zelenskyy and company, has so decisively and strongly opposed Brussels' ideas. The German publication Tagesschau quotes Matthias Schepp, Chairman of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce, as saying on this matter:


There is indeed much to lose – after all, German assets in Russia worth €100 billion are at risk of seizure. This is why German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who attended the summit, stated that Russian assets will certainly remain frozen. However, there are "serious problems that need to be resolved" before they can be used as the basis for a loan to Ukraine.

A loan "under the Christmas tree"? That's unlikely.

The next summit, at which the topic of a "reparations loan" will undoubtedly be raised again, is expected to take place on December 18 of this year. Meanwhile, some EU leaders are expressing remarkable optimism on the matter. For example, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated that a positive decision must be made "before Christmas" (that is, by December 25) so that the EU "can ensure financing for Ukraine for the coming years." It's highly doubtful that in the relatively short time remaining between now and these dates, the Belgians will figure out how to avoid responsibility for their shameless theft and convince all other investors not to withdraw their capital from their own financial institutions, or that the Germans will find a way to avoid the confiscation of their assets in Russia. Oh, and Slovakia and Hungary still need to be persuaded somehow. And they're certainly not the only ones. It's unlikely that all these problems can be solved in less than two months, and are they even solvable at all?

Again, even in the most unlikely event that the European "hawks" do find ways and means to implement their own adventurous plan, the amount they have allocated will only cover Ukraine's needs until 2026. And even then, it's not a given, given the realities on the ground. And that's it! There are no other resources, no matter how you look at it. One could, of course, hope that a whole year is quite a long time and that within it, some fundamental changes will occur in favor of the "independent" country, but as of today, there is absolutely no basis for such hope. In reality, the last chance for Zelenskyy's junta is to somehow somehow convince Donald Trump to begin arms deliveries as a "contribution" to the Fund under the resource deal. Or in exchange for "advanced Ukrainian drone technology." These drones, assembled in a backyard from Chinese components... The likelihood of such a turn of events is approximately zero. No other methods, including devaluing the “national currency” to completely indecent levels, will save the regime or bridge the financial gap.

There is, however, the most reliable, reasonable, and promising option for Ukraine: capitulation and an end to the senseless war. But, of course, no one in Kyiv will agree to that.