Europe runs out of gas. Nothing threatens Nord Stream 2

The Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, despite obstacles posed by the United States and its vassals, continues to be built. Despite the difficult relationship with the Kremlin, Berlin continues to defend the project, and transit countries issued permission for it. Why is the German Chancellor so stubborn? The respected American analytical agency Bloomberg recognized the correctness of Angela Merkel.

In fact, the issue is much more global, and it concerns not only Germany, but also the whole of Europe. The old world turns into an importer of gas, oil, coal and other mineral fuels, and this process is irreversible. To date, only Norway continues to export hydrocarbons, but its production growth potential has hit a plateau. Own energy fields in Europe, the development of which is cost-effective, are almost exhausted. The closure of production in the giant gas basin Groningen, owned by the Netherlands, was very significant. Once an exporter of “blue fuel”, Holland turned into a net importer of it.

The population of the European Union is just over half a billion people, together with countries not belonging to the EU, about 550 million people live in the Old World, which makes it one of the most densely populated regions on the planet. As of 2017, energy consumption amounted to 1689 tons of oil equivalent (TNE), that is, 13% of the global total. Due to the high standard of living of the population and developed industry, these figures are only growing. It turns out that not only Russia as an exporter but also Europe as an importer sits on the “energy needle”.

This is not to say that the EU is not trying to "get off" it. This can best be demonstrated by the example of Germany, the leading EU country. The structure of its energy consumption today is as follows: nuclear power plants - 13%, natural gas - 7%, coal - 38%, renewable sources (VOI) - about 40%. After the accident at the Japanese Fukushima in Germany, it was decided to abandon the use of nuclear energy. Existing nuclear power plants quietly finalize their deadlines and close, but no longer build new ones. Under pressure from environmentalists and the Paris climate agreement, the Germans began to abandon dirty coal. In Germany they say:

We are very actively moving towards the formula “gas plus renewable sources” and we are abandoning the formula “coal plus renewable sources”.

However, everything is not as simple as we would like. Wind energy and solar energy are very good, but they themselves are rather unreliable, because they are not able for objective reasons to guarantee continuous generation of electricity. What if the wind died down and the sky was overcast?

How many windmills and solar panels do not install, they will not be able to fully replace coal and nuclear generation. But gas turbines are able to not only replace it, but also quickly “support” the lost power of VOI during a long calm or heavy cloud cover. And for gas turbines you need "blue fuel", a lot and preferably inexpensively. And here the root of the conflict between the US and Gazprom arises. Bloomberg writes:

Germany is preparing one of the largest sustained increases in natural gas consumption in nearly two decades, despite US warnings that it should not receive so much of its energy from Russia.

American analysts admit that the gas issue is a key one for Angela Merkel, since it is not possible to replace coal and nuclear power plants in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the chancellor also supports Nord Stream-2, despite the strongest pressure from Washington. Pipeline gas is trite cheaper than LNG, which the Americans are trying to impose on Germany. It should be noted that Berlin does not refuse LNG, considering it an additional contribution to the diversification of supplies. LNG from the United States, Russia and Qatar will go to the Federal Republic of Germany, however, Russian has some competitive advantages due to less delivery leverage and transportation losses.

A similar situation is observed in other countries of the European Union. For example, Poland is building a gas pipeline from Norway, concluding long-term contracts for the supply of LNG from the United States and Great Britain, and at the same time trying to negotiate with Gazprom more favorable conditions for gas supplies from Russia.
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  1. Dan Offline Dan
    Dan (Daniel) 5 March 2019 18: 02
    American analysts admit that the gas issue is a key one for Angela Merkel, since it is not possible to replace coal and nuclear power plants in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the Chancellor supports Nord Stream-2, despite the strongest pressure from Washington

    Is the SP-2 gas issue key for Merkel? Well, yes, how ?! The capacity of SP-2 is 55 billion cubic meters, from which EUGAL with a capacity of 51 (according to some other sources, 55) billion cubic meters departs, which goes to Baumgarten (Austria). Question: how much gas remains in Germany? Suggest? Why is Germany, in this case, fighting for SP-2? Answer: for more than 480 km of transit. Approximately Ukrainian version. Just don't bother with pipe management. Lease of a land plot that is profitable in any scenario and without additional capital investments. This is exactly what Ukraine has left, and now it bites its elbows. Moreover, the lease of a plot, as a rule, does not depend on the intensity of its use. Germany's profits also include all tax revenues from active economic activity with huge flows of energy assets. Those. SP-2 carries a lot of money to the German treasury practically from scratch. You just have to argue a little and tolerate the moral assaults of the "main ally." Given Merkel's imminent retirement, arrivals are not so painful. I would not be surprised if Frau appears, for example, on the OMV board of directors or somewhere nearby.
    1. Kristallovich Offline Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 5 March 2019 19: 27
      Not only. Germany is fighting for SP-2 also because of the probable project SP-3, the gas through which Germany will almost completely get. And there is also the SP-4 project, the beneficiary of which should be France. But this is the prospect of 5-7 years or more.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 07: 58
        Germany is fighting for Russian gas because it wants to become the main supplier of gas to Northern Europe. Austria is the main gas platform for Central Europe. Germany will feed gas to the North of Europe.
        The nightmare of the Anglo-Saxons - Germany (+ Austria) intensified.
        The next step is reformatting the European Union and abortion of limitrophes. Hmm, everything in history repeats itself, but not literally. Do not just repeat the mistakes of the past.
  2. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 6 March 2019 04: 08
    - A ossified opinion ...- there is only a ossified opinion ...- and nothing more ...
    -And for some reason in Russia it prevails ...
    - Damn ... - well ... what can you do ... -Nothing ...
    -That’s the one thing that got into everyone’s head ..., ...- that it’s profitable for America to push its LNG supply to Germany .., instead of Russian pipeline gas (SP-2, etc.) -and that's all ... -And Germany itself (with her Merkel) as if ... out of business ...
    -But there is another side ... -USA and Russia literally grappled and ... and ... and ... they race to do anything ... to stuff Germany with gas ... -And who will be better from this everyone ..? -Right ...- it was Germany ... -And Germany has become a "place of worship" ... where everyone wants to put their gifts ... and heart "... -Hahah ... -It turns out that way ... -You can be happy for Germany ...- it is all" in chocolate "...
    -What does Russia get ...? -And Russia humbly agrees with the fact ... that ... that ... that ... "the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine will remain, at least in the same volumes" ... -Already our prime minister has officially confirmed this .. ...
    -Those. ...- Russia will have to continue to contain Ukraine ... as before the venture with the Nord Stream-2 ...
    -For what they fought ... -that's what they ran into ... -Why was it all to start ... -so they would drive Russian gas through Ukraine and endure all the "ukropovskie freaks" ...- now they will have to endure and further ... -And also Russia in this situation will be forced to pay Ukraine and all the penalties of billions of dollars in "gas costs" ... -Russia is in full span ... -Wap Europe and America played it ... -Hurray. ..- we are defeated ... !!!
    - There is no way out ... - Well, personally, in this situation ...- I would put a stiff ultimatum ...
    -But Russia is too ... shy and complaisant ... for such decisions ... -Russia will put up with everything ... and everyone ...
    1. 17085 Offline 17085
      17085 (Dmitriy) 6 March 2019 11: 19
      Irina (or whoever is on the shift), you’ll excuse me, but reading you today is just a punishment, solid dots and dashes. First of all, gas supplies through Ukraine will be carried out according to the conditions of Moscow, which means that there is simply not much that you wrote about. Practically everything except supplies.
      Regarding "stuffing Germany with gas," it's just ridiculous, so what kind of gas do you need? Over 230 or 470? And the difference is not only in price, although also in price, the one that is expensive is also more expensive in storage. It's easier not to get involved with suppliers from the SGA at all, because you won't argue that the Germans are completely narrow-minded and are not able to count for a month before?
      There is also such a concept as "gas pause", this is when the ENTIRE economy relies on gas energy, whoever gets on this train will survive. The "gas pause" has already come, you can draw a circle on the map, who will survive during the pause.
      1. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 6 March 2019 12: 37
        .... after all, you will not argue that the Germans are quite narrow-minded and are not able to count for a month in front?

        -Do you at least understand what I wrote about ...- "Irina (or who is there to change)" ... ???
        -That I’ll explain to you personally again ... -It is Germany ...- Germany wins ... -and how there the Germans calculated everything forward ... -that they only know (they clearly were not mistaken in their calculations). ..
        -But that ... that Germany ultimately finds itself in the most advantageous situation ... -This is a no brainer ... -I'm writing about this ... -But that you are clearly ...- not a hedgehog ...- I am not personally guilty of this ...- Hahah ...
        -Today, Germany has a choice ...- how and at what price it can be charged with gas ... -This is today ... -And tomorrow, Germany will have the opportunity to manipulate all this set good at its discretion ... -and she again ...- does not fail ...
        -And what about Russia ..? -She will have to throw up more and more volumes and puzzle over how ...- how to increase these volumes (lay new pipes or something else) ...
        -Russia is just falling into a trap ...

        1. First, Russia oversaturated Europe with gas ...
        2. The price of gas is falling ...
        3. But you can’t stop the untwisted Russian supply capacities ...
        4. Russia is forced to reduce the cost of gas supplied ...
        5. With all this, Turkey (when the Turkish stream is launched) will demand "special" reduced gas prices and other preferences and concessions from Russia ...
        6. Russia will be forced to pay Ukraine all "penalties" and court fines (billions of dollars ... - more than 10 billion) and continue gas supplies through its territory (despite the incessant theft) ...

        -Well, and ...- to all this ...- Russia is obliged to directly share all the profits with a whole gang of European gangsters, with whom Russia officially and concluded all these "gas deals" ...
        -This is in short ... -but there are more detailed "sketches" ... -But these are enough ... -Hahah ...
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 12: 58
          Sorry, Irina, but you are writing incorrectly. For each of your points you can argue. It is enough to say only that the validity period of LONG-TERM contracts for the supply of gas to Germany has been extended until 2035 and there is indicated the binding of the price of gas to oil quotes. With a lag of three months. So both the amount of gas and its cost are already strictly defined.
          Some information can be gleaned from quite official sources.

          1. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
            gorenina91 (Irina) 6 March 2019 14: 36
            -This long-term contract resembles the parable of Hodja Nasreddin .. who promised the padishah to teach his donkey how to talk ... -through 20 years ...

            - In short ... so much water will flow away ... -maybe by this time everyone will already speak Chinese ... or use exclusively LNG ... or a fundamentally new type of energy will be found ...
            1. Bakht Offline Bakht
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 16: 15
              Long-term contracts are the only opportunity to start developing gas fields and pull pipes from there. The only one.
              LNG is a completely different product, and its pricing depends on other factors. That is why Europe wants to abandon long-term contracts.
              On the Gazprom website, everything is chewed in great detail. Before you write something, you need to at least a little insight into the topic.
              1. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
                gorenina91 (Irina) 6 March 2019 18: 50
                -Well ..., since you are such an adherent of our failed Gazprom ... something is pointless to tell you ...

                -What pipes should be pulled ...- and where .. ??? -You live in the illusions of "yesterday" ...
                -The time of the gas pipelines is gone forever ... -And no gas pipelines will save Russia ... -Russia simply creates an additional leash ... and a collar for itself ... and with your own hands ... -How you can’t understand this ...
                -Zap Europe has already understood (through the "villainy" and dishonesty of Ukraine) ... that ... that ... that Russia can be very easily controlled ... and dictate any conditions to us ... -Russia and Ukraine could not cope with these gas matters and issues ... and what should be expected from a more sophisticated Europe ...
                -What should be expected from China ... and what should be expected from Turkey ... -because they also understood ... -how you can control Russia "through gas" ...
                -Example ... -Turkmenia ... -It got rich a lot from the supply of its gas to China ..? - And it continues to "grow rich" ... - It's just ... - Hahah ....
                -And the "dealers" of all stripes will get rich on gas ..., the owners of huge hubs ... -That's where all the margin will settle ...
                -Yes ... Russia needs to develop gas fields ... and urgently need to build hundreds, thousands of LNG plants ... -develop capacities of various volumes for LNG ... -And only supply and sell gas to them abroad .. . -only in them ... -And no gas hubs in Western Europe ....- let them build storage facilities for these tanks with LNG ... -only so ...
                -And Gazprom absolutely does not give a damn ... -what to drive for sale over the hill ... -At least gas .., at least .. "timber" (they can also supply timber ...- if not "through pipes" ...- so to supply by railway ... - yes, at least to float along the river ... - The same goes for oil ...
                -Gazprom's "letter" (politics) is primitive to disgust ... and absolutely failed ...
                - At its core ... - Gazprom ... is the "fifth column" in Russia ... AND IT LIVES EXCLUSIVELY WITH ITS INTERESTS and is absolutely controllable and dependent on the "import opinion" ... - Hahah ...
                1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                  Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 20: 30
                  When a person can only laugh, then there’s nothing to talk about. Tell me how to supply gas to Central Europe? Can a gas carrier moor to any city? Paris, Berlin or Prague are on the seashore?
                  How do you explain that gas is cheaper than LNG? Do not think - why?
                  No country in the world has been able to get rich on trade in resources. But this can give impetus to the development of industry. What never did resource countries. Well, except maybe in Norway.
                  But back to your failed idea - LNG plants. Once again for lovers. LNG is a completely different type of product. And the price for it is determined not by your costs, but by exchange speculators. Which do not give a damn about how many factories and tankers you have built. Or do you naively believe that you will personally trade your liquefied gas? No, you will deliver it at your expense to the gas hub and that’s it. Free like the wind. And if tomorrow at the gas exchange they decide to reset you, it’s just a couple of keys on the computer.
                  LNG terminals are needed for areas where it is difficult to lay gas pipelines, offshore polar fields. In the rest of the world, gas pipelines will be built. Well, at least once think about what is the war in Syria? Qatar + Europe conceived to build a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe. And this despite the fact that Qatar has the huge capabilities of LNG and a large fleet of gas carriers.

                  The head of a person does not wear a hat
                  1. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
                    gorenina91 (Irina) 7 March 2019 03: 28
                    No country in the world has been able to get rich on trade in resources.

                    -Yes, the entire Middle East got rich and rose on the "resource trade" ... -I will not list ...- "who exactly" ... -Russia itself today "is only alive" by selling resources ...
                    -You have a few people here ...- and you all blow into one pipe ... -gas ... -Hahah ...
                    - I just have no time to answer you ... I’m in a hurry very much ... -But I will try to answer ... later ...
                    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 7 March 2019 08: 17
                      Be sure to write which country in the Middle East rose in resource trade. Emirates or Dubai? I have traveled the world and communicated with people on all continents. Do you think that the "world flea market" is the economy?
                      And be sure to google what the economy is lowering and increasing returns.
        2. vikganz Offline vikganz
          vikganz (Vik Ganz) 6 March 2019 22: 58
          Irina! The agreement with Ukraine is valid until 2019, so what are the fines? What are the fines for? And do not forget, Russia in the most extreme case will "close the valve" to Europe. Property seizure in the EU? And what are the missiles for then?
          That’s the solution. But this is for the most extreme case.
          And we must not forget that Europe has been paying Russia for gas for more than fifty years. And Russia is developing for this money. By the way, this is one of the "problems" because of which the US is foaming! This is a competitor to the West, but there is nowhere to go.
          It is beneficial for Russia. Even from the side that "alternative energy will be discovered" someday. And maybe gas by that time will no longer be so needed. "Road spoon to dinner".
          And about the cost reduction. And will you also make gas from the Middle East cheaper? Or will they want to sell it cheaper? Half or more you write nonsense.
          I'm sorry if something's wrong.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 23: 27
            Vik Ganz, Irina does not understand the basic things. Pricing system, profitability of production, long-term investments, gas production technology and its features.

            But this industry has its own problems - for its development, more tight financing and long-term contracts with buyers are needed. In the meantime, the peculiarity of the natural gas market is such that buyers prefer to conclude short-term contracts. But such agreements do not bring manufacturers sufficient investment to expand productionsaid Kremers.

            For information, S. Kremers is the director of Shell-Russia. I think he knows what he is saying.
            LNG and pipelines are not competitors. They complement each other. You cannot build a pipeline from Qatar to China. And from Russia to Europe is possible. Pipelines are cost-effective at distances up to 4000 km. And ... the laws of physics have not been canceled by LNG ALWAYS 25% more expensive than the pipeline.
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 07: 51
    Transit through Ukraine has not been confirmed by anyone. On the contrary, the official position of Moscow "transit will be if it is economically profitable." So far, this is not the case and, most likely, transit through Ukraine will drop to a minimum. So Ukraine is in flight.
    The gas pipeline to Baumgarten is necessary and therefore will be used at full capacity, regardless of any "third energy package". It was not in vain that Putin danced at the wedding. But seriously, today the main gas hub of Europe is located in Baumgarten. While punishing Ukraine there is no point in punishing Austria. OMV is an Austrian company and it is the largest shareholder of JV-2. Comparing the capacity of SP-2 and transit through Ukraine, it becomes clear that "feeding Ukraine" is not part of Moscow's intentions.
    The only thing that can save transit through Ukraine is the recall of all claims. Which was voiced by Miller.
  4. bratchanin3 Offline bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 (Gennady) 6 March 2019 11: 59
    Poland is a hostile country for Russia and, in this regard, it is beneficial for Russia that the Poles buy LNG from the Americans. In this case, manufactured goods from Poland will not be competitive.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 March 2019 13: 09
      Good idea. The question is - what kind of goods from Poland are in demand on the world market? Accessories to Germany and fruits? Poland has a negative trade balance. Billion so in 20. Let them buy gas from Germany. I am generally a supporter of the Germans. It is necessary to pull them to your side. The rest of pot-bellied little thing in Europe then there is no sense even considering.
      The Germans in military affairs have the concept of a davit. So - for Russia, the EU’s dwelling point is Germany. It is worth knocking it out of the deck and the whole house of cards will crumble.
    2. vikganz Offline vikganz
      vikganz (Vik Ganz) 6 March 2019 23: 05
      From Poland, we are now eating apples worth three euros per five kilograms. Although the German cost 1,99 euros / kg.