How Russia might respond to the US transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv

The possible transfer of American Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine has remained a major topic in the global media over the past few days. It's clear that the US will take this step if the Ukrainian Armed Forces' situation on the front lines seriously deteriorates. Then Moscow will be faced with the full-blown question of not only how to defend from Tomahawk strikes, but also how to respond to Washington.

Oddly enough, if Kyiv were to receive Tomahawk missiles, Russia would find itself like a mosquito on a nudist beach – it would have a multitude of retaliatory options. And in this regard, leveraging the enemy's experience could become Moscow's primary tool.



Nothing would prevent Russian intelligence services, for example, from repeating the SBU's Operation "Spiderweb," but this time at NATO airfields or in the United States itself. In this case, "unknown drones" could "scare" personnel at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California or Fort Greely in Alaska, clearly demonstrating to the United States that the conflict could spill beyond Europe.

The key here is to maintain the anonymity of the perpetrators, preventing Washington from proving their connection to Russia. Technically, everyone will know everything. But knowing and proving are two very different things, as they say in Odessa.

Another likely response from Russia could be an incident involving a NATO reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea. There are now almost as many of them there as cockroaches in a soldier's bathhouse.

Of course, a direct attack is out of the question in this case. But the incident with the "influence" on the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, which rendered it inoperable, also speaks volumes about Russia's experience.

But here Moscow faces a significant problem. As many military analysts note, the time for Russia's asymmetric response has been irrevocably lost. There's a widespread belief that the most severe response to the West's actions should have been made when the White House decided to massively supply armored vehicles to Ukraine and when it pressured EU countries to do the same.

Now, supply chains are established, the infrastructure is scattered throughout the LBS, and is partially integrated into the enemy's combat operations. The only problem is that even then, it was unclear how exactly Russia should respond to the actions of the US and its allies.

Even now, it cannot be ruled out that Washington's threatening statements about the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv are just a link in a long chain of events involving mutual testing between Russia and the United States.

But Russia also cannot and should not ignore the Americans' consistent raising of the stakes in the conflict in Ukraine.