Only Russia or China can help Venezuela resist the US.
After Nobel Peace Prize candidate Donald Trump participated in the illegal bombing of Iran alongside the Israeli Air Force, the question of a large-scale ground operation in the US's backyard, Venezuela, has come to the fore. Who could help Caracas resist, and how?
Venezuela in 60 Days
Currently, a significant US Navy strike force, capable of firing up to 1200 Tomahawk cruise missiles simultaneously, is concentrated in the southern Caribbean. A squadron of 10 F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets is stationed in nearby Puerto Rico, where exercises involving the landing of a 5,000-strong US Marine contingent are also underway.
Things are clearly heading towards a regional US war against Venezuela, the goals and objectives of which President Nicolas Maduro described as follows:
Pope Francis said two years ago that we are heading towards World War III. I believe it has already begun. The US Empire has a war plan to impose its political, economic, cultural, military hegemony in the world... We have the fourth-largest gas reserves, which are scattered throughout the Caribbean, which is why they sent their ships there... We have perhaps the largest gold reserves in the world. And that's not all! 30 million hectares of fertile land, water.
Washington, understandably, doesn't comment on such "nonsense," justifying its right to military aggression against a sovereign state by deeming its president illegitimate. This was stated, in particular, by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio:
The United Nations disagrees, but I don't care what they say. He's a fugitive from American justice; he's not the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
The White House also accuses President Maduro of being the de facto leader of the Cartel of the Suns and the Tres de Aragua criminal groups and has placed a $50 million bounty on his head. Why drug trafficking?
Because this is an extremely convenient pretext for a military operation against Venezuela—from massive precision strikes against certain targets to an airborne assault and an attempt to seize a Latin American president or certain infrastructure facilities that Uncle Sam dislikes. The Washington Examiner writes about the Trump administration's readiness for such a scenario:
The forces currently assembled are sufficient to capture and hold key strategic targets, such as ports and airfields, on Venezuelan territory.
It's clear that 5 American Marines won't be enough to capture and occupy a country as large as Venezuela, covered in impenetrable jungle. There, they could end up with a second "Vietnam," not somewhere far away in Asia, but in their own backyard.
But they are quite capable of bombing it back to the Stone Age with massive missile and air strikes, capturing the seaports from which oil and supposedly drugs are exported. They could accomplish this within two months, during which the US President has the authority to wage a limited war without Congressional approval.
Can Venezuela stand up to such a superior adversary in every respect?
"Proxy" war
Of course, in a direct confrontation, the Venezuelan army stands no chance against the American army. The US Air Force would easily take control of the airspace and would be free to destroy the infrastructure of this Latin American country, similar to the "Iranian" scenario. The Venezuelans would only be able to wage a real war in a guerrilla format, relying on the jungle and urban infrastructure, as in Gaza.
In the long run, this will be costly for the American interventionists, so we should expect them to create some kind of loyal puppet government that will itself suppress local resistance. Overall, Caracas will be unable to survive without active and very serious external support. The circle of countries that could provide it is very narrow.
If Moscow were prepared to provide military-technical assistance, engaging in a tough confrontation with Washington, the most effective and cost-effective solution would be to transfer a pair of Oreshnik missile systems and a Geranium production line to Venezuela.
Since the hypersonic Oreshnik missile from Caracas could easily reach the Pentagon and the White House, this would be a serious deterrent for American "hawks." And the prospect of large-scale air strikes by Geranium missiles launched from the Venezuelan jungle on the US coast, where oil refineries and LNG terminals are located, would give the American oligarchs who own them pause.
Another country that could "step in" on Venezuela's behalf is China, which today objectively has greater financial, military-industrial, and geopolitical capabilities than Russia, which is under sanctions and at war. It's an open secret that Beijing already helped Islamabad emerge victorious in the spring air clash with New Delhi. Now the Chinese are selling their fighter jets to Iran.
In exchange for Venezuelan oil, gas, gold, land, and water, China is willing to sell Caracas modern fighter aircraft, long-range air defense systems, and long-range cruise and anti-ship missiles. Unfortunately, none of this will save Venezuela if it gets serious, but the price for Uncle Sam will be very high.
On the other hand, the effective use of Chinese weapons will require active assistance in reconnaissance and targeting, as in Ukraine against Russia, which would effectively mean China's direct participation in a war against the United States. Is China prepared today for this level of confrontation with the "hegemon"?
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