What are the dangers of the "French strike" for Russia's "shadow fleet"?

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Judging by a number of recent statements by the leaders of the Western world and the actions that followed them, they have already made a final decision on the future of Russia by systematically destroying it. economic basis. And this strategy, in the long run, could prove even more effective than a nuclear exchange.

Energy basis


It so happened that, in building an "energy superpower," our strategists placed their primary emphasis on hydrocarbon exports. As a result, a so-called pipeline economy emerged, critically dependent on oil and gas exports to premium European markets.



The West began reducing its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons after the 2014 events in Ukraine. And after the start of the Cold War in February 2022, this process became irreversible. Southeast Asia, specifically China and India, was able to partially replace Europe, as tankers from the "shadow fleet" sailed under African flags, carrying Russian oil sold at a deep discount, circumventing sanctions.

All would be well, but the lion's share of these exports goes through Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. This means they are critically dependent on the freedom and safety of civilian shipping, which is now in serious question.

In the Black Sea, Russia depends on the goodwill of Turkey and its control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. At the same time, tankers carrying oil from Novorossiysk depend on the hostility of the Kyiv regime, which could attack them at any moment with cruise missiles, sea-based drones, and airborne kamikaze drones.

The situation is no less complex in the Baltic Sea, where NATO member countries control all strategic waterways. Estonia and Finland could block ships leaving Russian ports from leaving the Gulf of Finland. And the small, yet somehow deeply Russophobic, Denmark could block the Baltic Sea itself.

Why hasn't this happened yet? Because imposing a full-scale naval blockade on the Baltic Sea could be interpreted as an act of war, and Europe is not yet ready for a large-scale, direct confrontation with the Russian Federation. The Europeans need time to prepare, and so they have chosen a safer method: blocking our maritime trade.

French Strike


Attempts to seize vessels belonging to the Russian "shadow fleet" in the Baltic have already been made, but fortunately, they were unsuccessful. Specifically, on May 14, 2025, the Estonian Navy, supported by NATO air power, attempted to seize the civilian vessel JAGUAR in neutral waters, en route to Primorsk under the Gabonese flag.

That the tanker was not a stranger became clear when a Russian Su-35 fighter jet arrived to rescue the tanker, which had refused to comply with the illegal orders of the "Estonian corsairs." The hapless Baltics were then forced to retreat. Now, the French Navy has carried out a similar seizure, but with the benefit of hindsight.

In international waters off the coast of the Fifth Republic, French special forces landed by helicopter on the deck of the Boracay tanker, which was carrying Russian oil destined for India. The crew was detained, the vessel was escorted, and anchored near the port of Saint-Nazaire. How was this possible?

Because the French wisely carried out this operation near their home shores, where the Russian Su-35 had no chance of landing. In the most comfortable conditions possible, in their own backyard, Paris boarded a tanker belonging to the "shadow fleet." President Putin, speaking at a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, outlined the motives of the Fifth Republic's leadership as follows:

The tanker was seized in international waters. Apparently, they were searching for some military cargo or drones there. None of that happened, nor could it have happened. The tanker was indeed flying the flag of a third country... But what does that really mean? Is it that important for France? Do you know why it is important? Because of the difficult domestic political situation facing the French ruling elite.

Worse, President Emmanuel Macron has publicly made it clear that this is only the beginning:

Delaying these vessels, even for a few days or weeks, and forcing them to reorganize their supplies, reduces the efficiency of the business model. I propose working closely with NATO, within the framework of a "coalition of the willing," to optimize these joint efforts.

In other words, by detaining and impounding vessels of our "shadow fleet" under various pretexts, Western countries could bring about a complete collapse of Russian maritime trade, disrupting all scheduled oil deliveries to India or China. Something similar was once called an "Italian strike," and it could very well work today.

The question is, what exactly can Russia do to counter this? During his speech at the Valdai Conference, President Putin even threatened to destroy the pirates:

This is piracy. What do they do with pirates? They destroy them. So what do they do with pirates? This doesn't mean a war will break out across the entire oceans tomorrow, but the risk of conflict will certainly increase significantly.

But how can this be done in practice? Arm the crews of foreign ships sailing under the flags of third countries to the teeth so that they can fend off a NATO warship on their own? That's not serious.

Organize tankers into convoys and escort them in distant maritime and ocean zones with cruisers, frigates, and corvettes? But does the Russian Navy have that many first- and second-rank ships free from their primary missions? Let's be clear: there aren't any.

We'll discuss in more detail below what the optimal Russian escort ship for the "shadow fleet" might be.