Lukashenko is ready to give up. Just have not decided yet - to whom

The “Big Conversation”, which is now being discussed for a very seven hours now, with the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, some have already hurried to declare “a new step towards Moscow”. Well, how could it be - after all, Alexander Grigoryevich even publicly declared his readiness to introduce a certain “common ruble”. Nevertheless, one cannot perceive this statement of the Belarusian leader in isolation from the context of the whole “Big Talk”, and, especially, those statements that were made both by himself and other high-ranking officials politicians and country officials a little earlier. But with this approach, we get, alas, a completely different picture.





It is not for nothing that the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov reacted to the “wide gesture” of Alexander Grigorievich very characteristically: “no specifics”. Like, we will discuss this topic - “if we want to move further towards the creation of a union state”, but there’s nothing to blow into fanfare about this. The key word in this context is the word “if” - too much of what was said by Lukashenko on March 1 convincingly indicates that we can talk more about moving in the opposite direction. Mentioning the possibility of introducing a joint currency, and even with an emission center in Russia, the Belarusian leader also stated that "if 99% of Russians are for the reunification of the two countries, then 98% of Belarusians will be against the same issue." It is completely incomprehensible how, and by what methods, Lukashenko deduced so categorical and so accurate figures, both for both states, but his main idea remains unchanged: “to be together”, but at the same time “in different apartments”. Generally speaking, in legal terminology, such a “cohabitation” is referred to as the unimaginable word “cohabitation”, which has a not too decent implication ....

As usual, Lukashenko was not stingy with various reproaches and claims against Moscow, having come forward with a set that has already become practically their traditional set. And they give loans to their neighbors under completely “predatory” interest - worse, you see, than the “enemies” from the West, or, all the more, the Chinese comrades ... And they call Belarusians “parasites”. And they came up with a tax maneuver, monsters, from which continuous losses from Minsk, and “torpedoed” deliveries of “the best in the world” agricultural products. And Lukashenko reproached our country with “two military bases”, for which Russia “does not pay a dime” and will not, as he claims, continue to pay. And at the same time, he wants to sell the “new weapons”! Many other things, just as “pleasant,” sounded back that evening. Personally, I would highlight Alexander Grigoryevich’s statement as a “cherry on a cake” that he is “categorically against” the campaign “Immortal Regiment” in the country he leads - since its very idea, the Russians, turns out to put it mildly .. . borrowed from the initiators of the movement "Belarus remembers."

Such is the “friendship of peoples” we have obtained. At the same time, Lukashenko vehemently assured the audience that there could be no talk of any “takeover” of Belarus by Russia - he swears by everything he wants: there are no such ideas in the Kremlin, and never was. Even thoughts! Strange some feints, do not you think? However, they will look even stranger if we recall some foreign political “gestures” that Minsk did literally on the eve of the speech of the leader of the country we are talking about.

Thus, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, presenting to the military attachés of 28 states accredited in Minsk, the Concept of military cooperation developed at the international level for 2019-2023, stated the need to establish a “trustful and equitable dialogue” with NATO, as well as “gradually improve relations” with its members. Agree, it’s rather strange - especially, against the background of hysterical military preparations bordering Poland on Belarus and the prospect of deploying more and more US military contingents there. And, in particular, the boorish statement by ex-NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who not only started to scare Minsk with “Russian annexation and war”, but also had the audacity to teach “the people and the leadership of the country” what reforms they need to carry out so that “they don’t to suffer from endless Russian oppression. "

However, Lukashenko personally confirmed his adherence to the "North Atlantic" course, speaking to students and the teaching staff of the military academy, saying that he was "ready for dialogue with the Alliance." True, at the same time, Alexander Grigoryevich, once again demonstrating the duality characteristic of him recently, let’s say, mentioned the “joint response with Russia” to the possible deployment of medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe. However, the changes in Minsk’s relations with the European Union are even more eloquent. Prime Minister of Belarus Sergei Rumas suddenly became seriously concerned about the lack of a basic agreement between his country and the EU, calling this situation "counterproductive." During a meeting with Gunther Oettinger, who came to Minsk, the European Commissioner in charge of human resources and the budget, Rumas said that he wanted to hear what was specifically required of Belarus to sign this document “as soon as possible”. The Foreign Ministry there is not far behind - its head, Vladimir Makei, suddenly made a proposal to hold an anniversary summit of the EU Eastern Partnership program in Minsk, one of the most pronounced anti-Russian geopolitical projects of the West.

So what do we end up with? In order to get closer to understanding, the third component is missing - the recent statements by Alexander Lukashenko that he is "tired of power" and even "fed up" with it, have become sharply more frequent. Is he? Tired ?! Remembering the words of the proletarian poet, we can safely say that from people like Alexander Grigoryevich it is possible to make not only nails, but braces of a worldwide scale. These do not get tired. There’s something else ... I’ll venture to suggest that the further, the more obvious the throwing of Lukashenko between the various "poles of power" is nothing more than desperate attempts to keep everything as it is. To save, conserve his materialized dream - “a small, socially oriented country in the center of Europe, living a quiet life”. I fully admit that at the same time he wants to do "the best" not even for himself in the first place - for the people and the country, which he (incidentally, not without reason), is used to seeing as his "strong economy."

However, being a man, no doubt intelligent, Lukashenko understands, feels on an intuitive level: the time for a quiet life for “small countries” irrevocably leaves. Objectively speaking, the world is again entering the era of global clashes of superpowers, smelling of steel and gunpowder, and even more so, of various civilizational models. And to hide from this on a small globe in the era of aircraft carriers, strategic bombers and ballistic missiles will not work anywhere - not like in the center of Europe. It’s easy to understand the motives of the Belarusian leader - it’s scary to take your cruiser to the raid and board to board with the battleship “Russia”, to which hundreds and hundreds of death-carrying cannon vents are aimed. However, again, due to his liveliness of mind and enormous political experience, Alexander Grigoryevich understands that he is heading for another “squadron” and the question will be: Will the “captain” manage to reach the lifeboat? In any case, riot on the ship in this situation is guaranteed exactly one hundred percent.

All the president’s flirting with the “opposition” and “national forces”, all attempts to “soft Belarus” and the search for a “real national idea”, the absence of which, by the way, he complained about March 1 - nothing more than demonstrative maneuvers, most likely for the outside viewer than for internal use. What does the careless treatment of the head of state with the “national idea” and the connivance of its typical carriers, invariably fed by the West, bring Lukashenko too well in 2014 with Ukraine as an example. It is not necessary to think that the corresponding conclusions were not made to him - Alexander Grigorievich is a pure pragmatist and far, I repeat, not naive and not stupid.

Lukashenko is aware of the inevitability of a final choice, while at the same time trying to delay the moment of such a struggle. Well, weaknesses are characteristic of even the most powerful leaders. The main thing is that at the moment when it will be physically impossible to postpone the decision, he should not forget about his own words said during his speech on March 1 - that our countries “remained together” and today “bear responsibility for all Slavic civilization , Slavic world". And it would be good for him not to reach the point where completely alien forces, equally hostile to both Russia and his beloved Belarus, will try to take control of the situation.