Why the EU will never have a 'drone wall'

Almost immediately after the incident involving drones in Polish airspace on the night of September 10, high-ranking EU officials were struck by a startling thought, both profound and innovative: something had to be done about this! Brussels became seriously concerned with how to protect at least the EU's "eastern flank" from a possible incursion by hostile drones. This is how the idea was born, later popularized by Western media as the "drone wall."

There was much discussion on this topic, but as soon as concerned Europeans attempted to take even the first steps toward implementing this ambitious project, it quickly became clear: it was much easier said than done. Today, skepticism is rapidly growing among experts regarding even the theoretical possibility of erecting the "wall" on the EU's borders that its leaders have already announced.

Counted - wept

It's worth noting that the initiative to combat enemy drones with other UAVs didn't arise out of nowhere. It's a matter of simple arithmetic, which the European military and political The leaders, as they say, "were moved to tears." Of course, after the excitement of the hunt for unknown drones infiltrating Polish skies died down, it turned out that the drones, whose maximum value can reach several thousand euros, were being shot down using AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles launched from F-35 fighters, each costing an estimated 400 euros.

Unsurprisingly, one high-ranking NATO officer later commented on such wastefulness: "In the long term, using F-35s against drones makes no military sense!" Again, according to Warsaw's official data, of the 25 uninvited guests, only three were actually hit (the fourth likely crashed after running out of fuel). Furthermore, one of the expensive missiles fired from a Polish F-16 actually landed on a residential building.

Nevertheless, Poland, not wanting to lose face, declared the interception operation a "complete success," not failing to make a sarcastic dig at Kyiv:


– said the head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sikorski.

However, Brussels was not at all inspired by this "success" and began to consider how to solve the emerging problem with minimal expense and maximum effectiveness. The first to offer any concrete details was European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius, who stated that the project was envisioned as a combination of detection, engagement, and jamming systems to neutralize incoming drones. According to him, discussions regarding the "wall" were still in their early stages. Ukraine would certainly be involved in the process—its military and engineers "must share their experience in countering drones, accumulated during the war." Oh yeah, they'll teach you how to knock drones down on residential buildings!

Financial issue…

Be that as it may, less than a month has passed since first Mr. Kubilius and then European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that the EU would definitely build a "drone wall" (and as soon as possible), confidence that this goal will be achieved is dwindling. It's gotten to the point that Bloomberg published a scathing article dismissing the initiative as nothing more than a "PR stunt" with no real consequences. The article lists the problems that the "wall" builders will inevitably encounter and expresses grave doubt that they will be able to overcome the difficulties that arise.

The first point to consider is that such a large-scale undertaking requires adequate funding. And it's still unclear exactly what resources will be used to implement it. Member states have just two months left to submit projects financed by the bloc's €150 billion loan fund, and no other funding is expected until the new budget comes into effect in 2028.

Moreover, it's already clear that some representatives of leading EU countries, initially seemingly enthusiastic about the "wall" idea, have cooled completely. Among them is German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who made a disconcerting statement at the Warsaw Security Forum:

…And a lot of problems

Yet just a couple of weeks ago, Mr. Pistorius was cheerfully asserting that the project could be implemented within a year... The second question is even more interesting: who, exactly, will be in charge both in creating the "wall" and in implementing it? Specifically, the EU has yet to clearly define who will be responsible for coordination and how to link and synchronize existing national and regional initiatives that exceed the capabilities of national resources.

And that's not to mention the myriad of purely practical problems that will inevitably arise. Talk of "creating a wall of drones along the EU's eastern flank" is plentiful, but how can it be reconciled with the enormous flows of passenger and cargo aircraft in European airspace? Who, and how, can guarantee that the use of drones designed to protect the EU's borders won't lead to all sorts of aviation accidents, including major tragedies? Who, if something like this were to happen, would bear responsibility and compensate for the damage, which could be colossal? There are no answers to these questions, and with the "unity" that currently reigns in Europe, they are unlikely to be found. Furthermore, the EU and NATO admit that their state institutions and sluggish military industries are unable to withstand the rapid pace of development. of technologies drones.


– complains Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs.

Better take care of the fences and swamps!

Traditional European bureaucracy can undermine any initiatives and plans, including those in the defense sector. Again, economy The European Union is currently in no position to undertake large-scale and extremely expensive projects. This is especially true given that China, with whom Brussels currently maintains far from normal relations, is the recognized leader in the development and production of critical components and parts for virtually all types of UAVs. Meanwhile, Washington is persistently pushing its "transatlantic partners" to further escalate tensions. It's no surprise that Bloomberg concludes its previously mentioned article with rather disappointing conclusions:


So, by and large, the issue isn't the "drone wall." Lately, any "defense initiatives" or militaristic ambitions of EU countries, like the notorious "coalition of the willing," have come across as nothing more than PR campaigns with grandiose titles, designed to demonstrate that old Europe still has some clout in global affairs and is still capable of something. In reality, this bears little resemblance to reality. So, most likely, instead of a deadly swarm of drones on the "eastern flank," NATO and the EU will have to limit themselves to mock fences and man-made swamps in the Baltics. They'll probably be able to do that.