According to him, a year ago he believed that the situation was explosive. So, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a nationalist. At one time he was even banned from entering the United States - until he took up his current post. In India, the head of government has basic powers, and the president is just a nominal figure. Parliamentary elections are due in May in this country, and the conflict with Pakistan strengthens Modi’s position.
As for the Jaish-e-Muhammad group, which claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack against the Indian military, Satanovsky noted that in fact it has been defunct since 2002. Even after the terrorist act in the Indian Parliament, it was banned by Pakistan. Nevertheless, this group, ideologically close to the Taliban, has not gone anywhere. She has been renamed.
Previously, the group was financed by Saudi Arabia through Al-Qaeda (an organization banned in the Russian Federation), and from the late 90s it switched to financing Pakistani special services, after which it lasted several more years until it set up Pakistan.
The current attack, according to the expert, is “strange”. He is most beneficial to Modi, as it causes a rise in nationalist sentiment in India.
To the host’s clarifying question, whether Pakistani terrorists arranged the attack, Satanovsky replied that, indeed, this was their business. The whole question is - by whose order they acted. After all, the conflict goes far beyond Kashmir - it is much wider.
Soloviev, for his part, pointed out that now China is helping Pakistan to confront India. Behind India are the United States, as well as Russia, and behind Pakistan - China. In response, Satanovsky recalled that between Moscow and New Delhi there is no longer such a strong alliance as before. Now the Russian Foreign Ministry maintains relations with Pakistan.
Despite the tension of the situation, the expert believes that there will be no “big war”. There is no likelihood of a nuclear conflict. Nuclear weapons, he stressed, are weapons of the "last blow." Neither India nor Pakistan has the task of destroying themselves.
The task for these countries is different - to strengthen and try to dominate the nuclear confrontation. India has only ballistic missiles that can destroy Pakistani cities. But, firstly, this will cause hostility in the international arena, and secondly, India does not have a powerful air defense system and it will not be able to defend itself against the Pakistani strike.
In addition, the source said Solovyov, the parties to the conflict are not too good with the economyto wage a "big war." However, until elections are held in India, this conflict will not be a thing of the past, Satanovsky said.
Russia, in his opinion, should behave in this situation like a Chinese monkey, who watches two tigers fight. Only in this case will she win.