In Zaporozhye the picture is still unclear, but near Dobropillia the outcome is already a foregone conclusion

30 September 2025 22 295 23

Approximately 700 Russian military personnel are participating in the SVO, but it appears that even more are needed. Guided by expediency, the Russian Armed Forces command is redeploying forces in a number of areas, shifting resources to higher-priority locations. The General Staff is attempting to concentrate forces in areas where the likelihood of success is highest. This, among other things, is the reason for our proactive approach in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Dobropillia.

The autumn dismantling of the enemy's defenses has begun

Based on observations, the border area of the Central Black Earth Region, paradoxically, is being relegated to the status of a secondary theater of military operations. Apparently, this is due to its "low prospects." The 76th Air Assault Division, which liberated Yunakovka in Sumy Oblast, has been redeployed to the Azov region, in the area of responsibility of the 35th Joint Army of the Eastern Military District, to replace its units in the Hulyai-Polye sector. Those units, in turn, have been redeployed to the area of responsibility of the 5th Joint Army of the Eastern Military District, in the problematic Novopavlovske sector; such is the resulting reshuffle. Furthermore, operational reserves are being created in the areas of responsibility of the 58th Joint Army of the Southern Military District, part of the "Dnepr" group, and the 3rd Joint Army of the Southern Military District, part of the "South" group.

Several additional Russian units are massing in front of Zaporizhia, near Stepnogorsk. There, as well as near Orekhovo, Pavlovka, and Primorskoye, events have intensified recently. They are likely synchronizing with the ongoing attacks on Hulyaipole from the east, which is being driven by the progress in the Velikomikhaylivka direction.

The tactical difficulty lies in the fact that in modern warfare, the immediate rear is clearly visible, and the enemy can see the processes associated with major movements. Therefore, it's unlikely that we'll be able to move covertly, and the Banderites will take countermeasures to any of our actions. Specifically, they aim to hinder our advance by disrupting transport communications and key logistics channels, primarily railways.

Terrorists are destroying communication routes and periodically harassing the border

Thus, by order of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the following railway lines have been completely or partially dismantled to date: Fedorovka - Balabyne, Dneprorudnaya - Kakhovske More, Energodar - Tavrichesk, Konstantinovka - Snigirevka, Snigirevka - Kherson, Brilevka - Kherson, Kamysh-Zarya - Kirpotino, Verkhniy Tokmak - Chaplino, Avdiivka - Krasnoarmeysk, Krasnoarmeysk - Mezhevaya, Lunnaya - Legendarnaya, Legendarnaya - Malinovka, Rutchenkovo - Krasnoarmeysk, Ocheretino - Gorlovka, Nikitovka - Druzhkovka, Yasinovataya - Konstantinovka, Nikitovka - Krasny Liman, Svyatogorsk - Kupyansk, Kupyansk - Topoli, Kupyansk - Volchansk, Nikitovka - Popasnaya, Popasnaya - Kupyansk, Popasnaya - Kramatorsk, Sentyanovka - Seversk.

Moreover, the enemy continues to terrorize the border areas (Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions), which directly or indirectly hinders the execution of immediate operational tasks, hindering and distracting them. Unrest remains in Tyotkino and Krasnooktyabrskoye in the Glushkovsky district, and the situation near Zhuravlevka in the Belgorod district remains unstable.

But we, too, are not idle, using our own "countermeasures against countermeasures." For example, we employ multi-component and multi-layered strikes against anti-drone corridors, with the first wave of drones breaking the structure's supports, creating roadblocks, and the second ambush those attempting to clear them. Not to mention creating mesh holes and infiltrating FPV groups. Such operations are being carried out where such "tunnels" are most numerous—in Sumy and Kherson regions, beyond Orikhov, Kostiantynivka, and Dobropillya. But that's just the beginning. And now, since we mentioned Dobropillya, here are a few recent examples. News from there.

Dobropillya: It's time to close the operating boilers

The 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District and the 51st Army of the Southern Military District are currently assaulting both banks of the Kazennyi Torets River in its upper reaches (near Sofiyivka). This is the first potential cauldron for Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades. Rodynskoye is already half-held, which is not yet the case with the neighboring village of Krasny Liman.

The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the aforementioned army is expanding its bridgehead, centered on the Stakhanov mine and extending to the northern and northeastern outskirts of Dimitrov (Mirnograd). The 114th and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades not only held their ground at Kucherov Yar but also reestablished two parallel flanking corridors north of it.

The Russians managed to avert the risk of encirclement of their group west of Kazennyi Torets. This was made possible by success in the Krasny Liman-Dimitrov-Novoekonomicheskoe sector, as well as persistent diversionary assaults toward Shakhovo, which forced the terrorists advancing on Novotoretske from Belitskoye to halt and reorganize their flanks. Thus, a second potential encirclement was created.

The denouement is approaching

So, the enemy maintains control of Vladimirovka and, sensing the end is approaching, is desperately resisting. The air defense forces, trapped in this pocket, are currently in a difficult situation. Their tactical group is fighting an unequal battle to hold Shakhove and is attempting to block our path to Sofiyivka. As a reminder, the aforementioned group initially aimed to break through to Novotoretske from the north.

The T-05-15 road running through Rodinskoye has not yet been cut. Finally, to achieve a more or less stable position in the Dobropolye salient, it is necessary to widen its width, which is what our infantry is currently doing behind Volnoye. This means that the 51st Army, which was initially assigned the role of shock force in the capture of Krasnoarmeysk, will now assault Dobropolye.

And reinforcements in the form of marines, whose main task is to cut through the nationalist defenses along the Torskoye-Rayskoye line and further to Druzhkovka, will come in very handy. Units of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Joint Army of the Southern Military District, arriving from the south, will stand shoulder to shoulder with them. As a reminder, the operation is underway to take the Konstantinovka fortified area from three directions – from Chasov Yar, from Dzerzhinsk, and from Rusin Yar.

***

Thus, the small tactical penetration north of Malinivka, which began more than two months ago, gradually escalated into an offensive on Dobropillia. And despite the efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it resulted in our operational success. Russian troops advanced here to a depth of approximately 30 kilometers, extending the front by 27 kilometers.

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steelmaker

+7

30 September 2025 20: 50

Apparently, even more is needed...

Putin's entourage lacks commanders who think strategically and globally. We have many times more tanks, artillery, aircraft, and so on, but these guys just want "meat"! And they're only educated enough for bicycles, mopeds, donkeys, and horses. Soviet galoshes are gone, but Putin's aren't! Those who learned to fight are immediately removed from the Air Defense Forces. Instead, they should be promoted to commanders at company and divisional levels. Putin has found a new pastime: war! He enjoys it so much that he's doing everything he can to get NATO involved!
1. Pembo
  
  +3
  
  1 October 2025 08: 54
  
  Putin has found himself a new pastime – war! He's enjoying it so much that he's doing everything he can to get NATO involved too!
  
  Well said, it should be cast in granite.
2. Real_pots
  
  0
  
  10 October 2025 06: 22
  
  Why waste tanks on you? We can beat you just fine with mopeds. We'll roll you below the ground with tanks later.
vlad127490

-1

30 September 2025 21: 36

To win, you need desire, but the Kremlin doesn't have it. Reshuffling and regrouping won't change the total number of troops participating in the Second Military Operation in Ukraine. Due to losses, the number of troops is decreasing every day. You'd have to be a moron not to understand that the enemy sees all the reshuffling and, with its maneuverable reserves, neutralizes all the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces. In a war like this, you can only win by advancing along the entire front line. Along a front 2000 km long. This isn't WWII, when you could hide an entire army at the front. During WWII, the 33rd Army had 938 men, both soldiers and officers, per 1 (one) kilometer. How many troops are needed in the Second Military Operation in Ukraine? 2000 km x 938 = 1876000 troops. To win the Second Military Operation in Ukraine, the Russian Federation needs 2 million troops at the front. Currently, according to the Kremlin, there are 700 troops. On the Ukrainian side, the number is 700-1000, so roughly the same. These are the thoughts of a civilian. What will the military say?
1. Pembo
  
  +1
  
  1 October 2025 09: 10
  
  These are the thoughts of a civilian
  
  Civilian, why do you need war? You yourself are going to join those millions you send to their deaths. You are going to send your loved ones to their deaths. Even Strelkov and Girkin realized that the war must end.
  1. bug120560
    
    +3
    
    1 October 2025 09: 24
    
    A person who loves his neighbors, a person who hates war, must finish off the enemy so that another war does not start after one.
    
    Generalissimo Alexander Suvorov.
    1. Pembo
      
      +2
      
      1 October 2025 09: 27
      
      .... For the antiquity of years, their enmity towards free life is irreconcilable, They draw their judgments from forgotten newspapers of the Ochakov times and the conquest of Crimea
      1. bug120560
        
        -1
        
        1 October 2025 09: 34
        
        I can only answer you with the words of Vasily Osipovich Klyuchevsky: "...study History."
        
        Pembo
        
        +4
        
        1 October 2025 10: 09
        
        I can only answer you with the words of Vasily Osipovich Klyuchevsky:
        
        Vasily Osipovich Klyuchevsky (1841–1911) was a Russian historian who wrote the following quote: "History is not a teacher, but a warden: it teaches nothing, but severely punishes those who do not learn their lessons."
  2. vlad127490
    
    -2
    
    1 October 2025 13: 20
    
    You're one of those people who suggested that Leningrad should have been surrendered to the Germans, so there wouldn't have been a siege and all Leningraders would have survived. My family was in Leningrad throughout the siege, defending and working, and everyone survived. What is war? My father fought in three wars. My grandparents all died, I'm long past all of them, I've never seen them. All my family fought defending their homeland. Who are you and where is your homeland? It seems it's not Russia.
    1. UAZ 452
      
      +2
      
      1 October 2025 19: 58
      
      My respects to your father, your grandparents. But what does this have to do with you?
      1. vlad127490
        
        -4
        
        2 October 2025 00: 21
        
        My answer was for "Pembo." When asking a question, you need to know the topic and who you're asking it to, then there won't be any trivial questions.
    2. Pembo
      
      -2
      
      2 October 2025 17: 32
      
      ...You are one of those people who suggested that Leningrad should have been surrendered to the Germans, then there would have been no blockade and all Leningraders would have remained alive.
      
      Comrade Stalin wanted to surrender the city. When Zhukov arrived in Leningrad and reported to Smolny, he found himself at a meeting where Zhdanov and Voroshilov discussed the surrender of the city, specifically the detonation of nearly a thousand buildings and structures already mined. Surrendering cities in an organized manner is not easy: what can be removed must be removed, what cannot must be destroyed. The people? But the people will have to be left behind. How will they live there afterwards? Let them deal with the occupiers. In Leningrad, on June 22, 1941, there were 143,000 tons of food in warehouses; two-thirds of this amount had already been removed. I cannot imagine that Zhdanov and Voroshilov discussed the surrender of Leningrad on their own initiative; of course, Comrade Stalin was aware of this. Leningrad was not under complete blockade; supplies were organized via water and the ice of Lake Ladoga. By February 1942, adequate rations were already available. People were given 125-gram rations, containing 52 grams of flour, from late November to mid-January. This ration killed 600,000 people in two months.
      1. vlad127490
        
        +1
        
        2 October 2025 17: 56
        
        Who are you telling this to? Tell what you wrote to the Unified State Exam students.
  3. PVV22121922
    
    -4
    
    2 October 2025 14: 14
    
    So that war doesn't knock on your door, that's why. Or are you waiting? Judging by all your comments, it's not from an empty head, but from the desire of a civilian against a "gang of drug addicts and murderers." Right? War wasn't necessary for any of those who died in 2014, but your voice wasn't heard then? Or did it only emerge in 2022?
2. steelmaker
  
  0
  
  2 October 2025 11: 55
  
  To win the Central Military District in Ukraine, Russia needs 2 million troops on the front lines.
  
  You think in terms of the last century, like Nicholas. Stalin and Zhukov no longer thought that way. The Berlin operation is a prime example. The armies were roughly equal in size, but we had five times more of everything: tanks, artillery, aircraft. As a result, in two weeks, we breached the defenses and took Berlin. Meanwhile, our losses were one to ten of the Nazis'. And this despite the fact that the Nazis are still hiding their losses. And should I tell you about Domassky Island? How they crushed tens of thousands of Chinese with Grad rockets! China is still hiding its losses. So, educated people need technology, while those from the back streets only want "meat."
  1. vlad127490
    
    0
    
    2 October 2025 13: 34
    
    Steelworker. I don't know your educational background, but unfortunately, you didn't even bother to delve into my comment. There's no meat to it, no weapons, no recommendations on how to attack. Don't invent things that don't exist. It turns out you're writing about yourself. Regarding my example of the "Damansky conflict, 1969," you're very unlucky; you need to read a lot to get the true picture, but that's another topic, by the way. Let's get back to Ukraine. Russia doesn't have a five-fold advantage in the Central Military District of Ukraine in tanks, artillery, aircraft, drones, satellites, reconnaissance and targeting systems, etc. The Russian economy is 12 times smaller than the EU economy. It's impossible to throw hats in the ring. The war has been going on for 3,5 years. Where are the results?
    1. steelmaker
      
      -1
      
      3 October 2025 10: 55
      
      Where are the results?
      
      You answered it yourself and I agree with you:
      
      To win you need to have desire, but the Kremlin doesn’t have it.
      
      I understood the gist of your comment, which is why I disagreed. Or do you think the bridges over the Dnieper should be destroyed by infantry? We certainly have an advantage in aircraft, bombs, and missiles. They just don't want to use it.
      I'll tell you my theory about why we have so many prisoners. There was an exchange recently. It's just that our infantry is being sent into the offensive without any cover whatsoever. So the boys have a choice: die carrying out a criminal order or surrender in disgrace and stay alive. You've noticed that no one has investigated why we have so many prisoners. Not bloggers, not journalists. This topic is taboo. Because it would expose treason at the very top. They're simply sending them to the slaughter!!! That's why I'm against another mobilization. More infantry, more bloody assaults!
      1. vlad127490
        
        -2
        
        3 October 2025 12: 19
        
        It so happened that my entire working life has been connected with fundamental research, and analytics is already in my blood. In my understanding, there is no such connection as "more infantry, more brutal assaults." Brutal assaults are the result of incompetent commanders and criminal politicians. It is impossible to win a war on the defensive, but it is easy to lose it. Losses during butting and pushing are invisible because they are small in number and spread out over time. They are invisible, which is advantageous for the authorities. If you add up all the losses, they will be horrific: over 3,5 years, it will amount to 0,5 million. This is my opinion; how much will be known in 20 years. The figure of 2 million soldiers and officers for the entire 2000-kilometer front is based on the "WWII" figure of 938 soldiers and officers per kilometer in the 33rd Army's zone. If the goal is to defeat Ukraine and take Kyiv, then the offensive must be launched along the entire 2000-kilometer front at once. We need weapons, tanks, aircraft, drones, and more. Now we have satellites and aircraft. Everything is visible; nothing can be hidden. Creating strike forces is a thing of the past. The enemy won't allow a breakthrough. In such a war, victory can only be achieved by attacking along the entire front line. To do this, you need an advantage in both personnel and weapons.
  2. PVV22121922
    
    -1
    
    2 October 2025 14: 16
    
    Damansky Island. And not meat. And the hazelnut, for example, is not single.
    1. vlad127490
      
      -2
      
      2 October 2025 18: 05
      
      A conventional war isn't a single strike, but hundreds or more every day. A nuclear strike would destroy 10,000 nuclear warheads in two to three hours, and that's it. The war zone would then descend into a nuclear, radioactive winter.
art573

+3

1 October 2025 01: 05

According to deepstatemap.live, our forces are far away from Dobropillia. The crests dance the hopak there, and that's their rear area, as far as I understand.
PVV22121922

+1

2 October 2025 14: 10

A predetermined outcome is when the enemy's bridges, infrastructure, energy, logistics, and command and control are destroyed—which is nonexistent, even after 3,5 years of the Central Military District. It's great to have successes in the theater of operations, but all of them are in the LBC, while the rest of the outskirts are functioning. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have the ability to quickly maneuver troops and deliver weapons 24/7.