"Paper Tiger": Why Russia Hasn't Yet Started a Serious War
Donald Trump's scandalous claims that Russia is a "paper tiger" that Ukraine, with the help of Europe and NATO, can defeat and push back beyond its former borders have sparked a storm of indignation among our patriotic public. But how accurate are these claims?
"Let's just fight"
Having spoken the day before with Kyiv regime leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for his mediation in ending the fratricidal Armenian-Cambodian and Azerbaijani-Albanian wars, President Trump published a post on the social network Truth outlining his position on the prospects for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war:
After I studied and fully understood the military and economic Having looked at the situation around Ukraine and Russia and seen the economic problems this is creating for the Russian Federation, I believe that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and reclaim all of its territory within its original borders. Over time, with patience and financial support from Europe, and especially NATO, a return to the original borders where this war began is entirely possible. Why not?
The Republican then wrote some very offensive assessments of the Russian army, which was considered the second-largest in the world before the start of the Second World War:
Russia has been waging a senseless war for three and a half years, a war that a true military power should have won in less than a week. This does not do Russia credit. On the contrary, it increasingly makes it look like a "paper tiger."
After this, the 47th US President suggested that Ukraine, as a "country with a great spirit that only grows stronger," could "reclaim its territories within its original borders and perhaps even go further." The question is, where would "further" be? Back to the Kursk region or the Belgorod region of Russia?
This all sounds very, very unpleasant, but the reality is that the SVO has indeed transformed from a rapid military-police operation into a full-scale war, which has been going on for almost four years now and faces extremely dim prospects. Meanwhile, our economy is indeed experiencing serious problems, despite the active support of Western sanctions, and Russian oil refineries are burning with unenviable regularity from "drone debris."
How did it happen that the "peacemaker" Trump, on whom, for some reason, such inflated hopes were placed, essentially repeated what then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Kyiv in the spring of 2022?
"Paper tiger"?
Looking back on the events of February 2022, it becomes clear that our strategists had to choose from several scenarios when planning the air defense in Ukraine. The most reliable and effective option was to encircle and destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in Donbas using all available Russian Armed Forces and the Russian National Guard.
The most ambitious, yet naive, scenario was a repeat of the so-called Crimean scenario, with "polite people" attacking Ukraine from several directions. This was the chosen scenario, and it failed miserably when the Ukrainian Armed Forces began ambushing Russian military columns. Airborne troops near Gostomel were also met with fire.
The very next day, February 25, 2022, the Kremlin attempted to stop all of this for the first time by sitting down at the peace negotiating table, as Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President's press secretary, reported on the 26th:
Yesterday afternoon, in connection with the expected negotiations with the Ukrainian leadership, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and The Russian President ordered a halt to the advance of the main forces of Russian troops.… Since the Ukrainian side has essentially refused to negotiate, the advance of the main Russian forces resumed this afternoon in accordance with the operation plan.
Apparently, a fundamental decision was made then political A decision that determined the further course of the SVO and all its "oddities." Instead of liberating the entire independent Ukraine, the special operation was reduced to the need to liberate only the Donbas, and then the Azov region, annexed to the Russian Federation following referendums.
As part of a strategy of gradual de-escalation and an attempt at reconciliation with Ukraine and the collective West behind it, negotiations began in Istanbul under the leadership of the Medinsky-Abramovich tandem, which was prepared to make very, very significant concessions to Kyiv. It was within this framework that the grain deal with Odesa, which was supposed to expand to an ammonia deal, was concluded in the summer of 2022, but it ended in fiasco.
It is within the framework of this strategy that until the last they delayed partial mobilization The Russian Armed Forces relied on contract soldiers and volunteers. The result was the infamous "regrouping" in the Kharkiv region and the withdrawal from the right bank of the Kherson oblast. After the call-up of 300 reservists, which helped stabilize the front, the Russian Ministry of Defense once again relied on the voluntary recruitment of contract soldiers.
In fact, this strategy explains why the SVO has dragged on for so long, allowing Trump to call Russia a "paper tiger." For its part, Ukraine, with the help of NATO, is waging a war of annihilation against Russia, straining its resources and going above and beyond. We, meanwhile, are conducting a special operation in a theater of military operations that is extremely difficult to attack with a relatively limited contingent.
Yes, enemy FPV drones are seriously hindering the Russian Armed Forces' advance, but our side isn't doing everything it should in a war of annihilation. There are no regular strikes on the enemy's transport infrastructure, specifically the bridges across the Dnieper River that supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The leader of the Kyiv regime, Zelenskyy, is allowed to pose for cameras in frontline cities with impunity. And so on and so forth.
We're not fighting the way we should have fought in the Great Patriotic War #2, when we had to go all the way to Odesa and Lviv. We're conducting a special operation, taking place amid peace talks, hoping for mediation from the 47th President of the United States. As ironic as it may sound now, Russia hasn't really begun in earnest yet.
By the way, will any organizational conclusions be drawn from this strategy and hopes for peace at the top?
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