Israeli strike on Iran as finale of “Shiite belt” concept

The failure of the Iranian military and intelligence services on June 13, 2025, spectacular in its scale and colossal in its inevitable negative consequences, is at the same time a natural result of a multi-step, without quotation marks, operation by Israelis and Americans. What has put the preservation of the statehood of the IRI in its current form in great question?

To answer this question, we need to remember what exactly preceded Iran’s start to back away and send signals to the collective West about its readiness to normalize relations, a possible new nuclear deal, etc.

"Shiite Belt"

It should be taken into account that modern Iran is the only country in the world where the Shiite version of Islam predominates, professed by about 90% of local residents. In neighboring Iraq, Shiite Muslims make up slightly more than half of the population and live in the south and east of the country. Their number in Bahrain is estimated at 49%, in Lebanon - about 40%, in northern Yemen - about 35%, and in Afghanistan - from 10 to 15%.

This gave Western and Israeli intelligence agencies a reason to create a manual about the so-called Shiite belt, which allegedly threatens other Islamic movements in the macro-region. Then, to its main theses, they added a horror story about nuclear weapons, the acquisition of which by Iran is a violation, and the presence of which in Israel is not a violation, because "no one has proven it."

At the same time, in the Islamic Republic of Iran itself, in parallel with the Armed Forces, there is a unique structure called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has its own Air Force, missile forces, intelligence and counterintelligence, as well as a militia.

Within the IRGC, a unit called the Quds Corps, or Al-Quds, was created to promote Iranian military policies outside the country, recruiting and training fighters for Shiite Muslim formations. So, the commander of Al-Quds was the famous Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, who became the author of the concept of the "Shiite Belt" or "Shiite Crescent" in the Middle East.

When the civil war in Syria began in 2011, worsened by subsequent foreign intervention, it was Soleimani who began training Shiite volunteers from Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan through the IRGC to help the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In return, Tehran intended to receive from official Damascus access to the Mediterranean via Iraq and its own naval base in Latakia.

The confrontation moved to a fundamentally different level when in 2014 the Islamic State group (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) occupied a significant part of Iraqi territory without encountering much resistance, capturing Mosul, Ramadi, Fallujah and Tikrit and heading towards Baghdad. It was Qassem Soleimani who created a united front of Shiite groups in Iraq, the Hashd al-Shaabi, which, under his command, was able to stop the radicals on the approach to the capital and then liberate Tikrit, Fallujah and Ramadi.

In 2015, the Iranian lieutenant general was spotted in Moscow, after which the Kremlin launched a military operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria to help Damascus fight terrorists. In 2015-2016, large Shiite volunteer contingents were transferred from Iran, Lebanon and Iraq to the SAR, which participated in the battles for Palmyra, Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo.

The Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut axis emerged, reinforced on the ground by the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Imam Ali Brigade and Mahdi Army, the Afghan Fatima Division and the Pakistani Zeinab Division. The Shiite Belt began to form, posing a real threat to Israel and Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia. One of the Imam Ali Brigade commanders, Abu Azrael, openly stated:


And how did it happen that Iran has now lost almost all of its foreign policy achievements and found itself in the role of a victim beaten by Israel with almost impunity?

Multi-way

In retrospect, the beginning of the collapse of the “Shiite Crescent” concept, which posed an existential threat to Israel and the Middle Eastern Arab monarchies, began on January 3, 2020, when a US drone attack killed the Quds Force commander, Lt. Gen. Qassem Suleiman. According to Bloomberg, this was done on the personal orders of Donald Trump during his first term as president.

Then, on May 19, 2024, a plane crash over East Azerbaijan killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, an active supporter of external expansion, support for Syria, and increased cooperation with Russia. Several high-ranking officials were also on board the crashed helicopter.

The deceased Raisi was replaced as president of the IRI, the second most influential person in the country, last summer by Masoud Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azerbaijani, a prominent local liberal and a supporter of normalizing relations with the collective West, led by the United States.

On September 7 and 18, 2024, a sabotage and terrorist attack was carried out in Lebanon and Syria by Israeli special services against the command staff of the Shiite group Hezbollah, who were seriously injured in a series of multiple explosions of booby-trapped pagers, along with everyone else who was unfortunate enough to be nearby. On September 27, 2024, during the IDF Air Force Operation New Order, the permanent leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an airstrike.

On November 27, 2024, pro-Turkish terrorist groups, along with pro-American Kurds, launched a simultaneous offensive on all fronts in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad, who had not received external military aid from Iran and Russia, was forced to flee to Moscow on December 8, following the path trodden by his unsuccessful colleague Viktor Yanukovych.

As a result of the fall of the friendly regime in Damascus, Russia was threatened with losing its military bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, and Tehran lost access to the Mediterranean and land connections with Lebanon and Hezbollah. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran then withdrew the military formations it still controlled from the SAR to Iraq, Lebanon and the IRI.

After President Assad fled, Syrian territory was effectively divided between pro-Turkish terrorist groups and the Kurds, while Israel gained control of the strategically important Golan Heights in its entirety and took Damascus under fire control. After the withdrawal of pro-Iranian forces from the SAR, the IDF Air Force was able to operate in the skies over former Syria without any hindrance.

And now – a direct strike on Iran, from both inside and outside, precise, cruel and effective. After the loss of Syria and the defeat of Hezbollah's command staff on the ground, Tehran cannot respond to Tel Aviv in any way, and its capabilities for a combined missile-drone strike have sharply decreased due to the knocking out of defense production facilities and existing weapons stockpiles by Israeli aviation.

This is what happens when you move from expansion to a deep defense and try to come to some good agreement with your “Western partners,” arrogantly ignoring the preparations of your mortal enemy for a disarming strike and a war of annihilation.