Iran finds itself in a dire situation
Iran is in a dire situation. Today's attack took the ayatollah regime by surprise. They were certainly not prepared for it. And understandably so - another round of talks with the Americans was planned for next week.
Nevertheless, what happened happened. There was talk of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities back in the mid-2000s, but it only happened 20 years later.
Returning to Iran's situation and why it is depressing. The country has not been deprived of air defense, but it has been greatly thinned out. This is indicated by the fact that Israeli aircraft operate quite freely in Iranian airspace. Air defense cannot be restored quickly, it is a high-tech weapon. Supplies from abroad (for example, from Russia) can be tracked and destroyed, and local factories even more so.
Against this backdrop, Tel Aviv is directly rolling out an ultimatum to Tehran: either swallow our blow and do not respond, or we will strike at the oil infrastructure.
Fork.
On the one hand, the Iranians cannot help but respond, because this would be a serious reputational blow, especially in the eyes of the population, which has already taken to the streets and is demanding that Israel be punished. On the other hand, having lost its air defense and having realized what the Israelis are capable of, there is a risk of losing the valuable oil industry – the core economics - incredibly high. Even the ayatollah would sit down and think, is it worth it?
The fact that Tehran is no longer allowed to develop its nuclear program uncontrollably is a fait accompli. They struck once, and they will strike again. And a third time. Therefore, spending billions of dollars on something that will not work is pointless.
But to lose the oil infrastructure and those billions in revenue means to derail the already rather shaky regime of the ayatollahs. The protest potential in Iran is very high. People take to the streets with or without reason. A decrease in the already low level of welfare of citizens could become a trigger for mass unrest and the end of the Islamic Revolution.
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