Strike first: what the sabotage attacks of the Ukrainian GUR and the Israeli Mossad showed

13 2025 June 24 872 36

All new details of the IDF's unusually spectacular air attack on Iranian nuclear program targets make one ask an extremely unpleasant question: is it now possible in principle to avoid defeat in the war by playing second fiddle in a deep defense?

Twice in one funnel

Let us recall that this terrible “Pandora’s box” was opened on June 1, 2025, when Ukrainian special services carried out a sabotage attack on the rear military airfields of the Long-Range Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which belong to the Russian “nuclear triad”, irreparably destroying and damaging a number of strategic missile carriers.

What happened less than two weeks ago forced us ask yourself the following uncomfortable questions:

Will the "Western partners" be able to resist the temptation of using someone else's hands and weakening the Russian "nuclear triad" even more safely for themselves? And these may no longer be cheap FPV drones with a weak RPG warhead, but something larger and more powerful. And is it possible to exclude that deadly and fast quadcopters, remotely controlled by Ukrainian operators, will now attack Russian officials, high-ranking military personnel or design engineers deep in the rear?

Similar questions American military experts soon asked the same question on the pages of the Wall Street Journal:

One immediate lesson beyond this conflict is that the U.S. homeland is far more vulnerable than most Americans realize. Details of Ukraine’s daring operation are sparse, but Kyiv managed to sneak cheap drones across the border and use them to destroy expensive Russian military assets. The hit to Ukraine’s pocketbook was significant. You don’t have to be a thriller fan to imagine a similar scenario in the United States.

However, the second time this scenario was implemented not in the United States, but by Israeli intelligence services on Iranian territory.

In order to neutralize the IRI air defense system, and at the same time reduce the weight of the inevitable retaliatory missile and drone strike, Mossad agents covertly delivered and placed attack drones on enemy territory, which immediately before the IDF air strike disabled the deployed Iranian air defense systems and missile systems from the inside. At the same time, leading Iranian nuclear scientists and the highest-ranking military were killed.

Why is this so important for us? Because right now in the Middle East, possible strategies and tactics of the NATO bloc's war against Russia are being tested.

Backstab?

We talked about how they are in many ways reminiscent of the confrontation between Israel and Iran back in ARTICLES from May 30, 2025, shortly before the start of the Ukrainian "Web". So, what conclusions can we draw from the experience of sabotage operations of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Israeli Mossad?

It is quite obvious that a massive air strike by NATO member countries will be preceded by a disarming strike carried out from within, following a scenario already worked out in Russia and Iran. However, next time everything will be much more serious and large-scale.

Apparently, the Russian Defense Ministry and Russian special services will try to eliminate the potential source of threat to strategic facilities using operational methods and by creating a kind of "exclusion zone" around them, where it will be impossible to bring in trucks with deadly payloads. However, as sometimes happens, such approaches may already be outdated.

So, hot on the heels of the Ukrainian "Web" we tried to imagine, what could be the significance of missile weapons, covertly placed in ordinary cargo containers. Of course, we are talking about the "Caliber-K" complex, which was considered promising. But our country, unfortunately, is no longer a leader in the production of such launchers.

Yes, back in 2021, the American corporation Lockheed Martin presented the MK70 PDS missile system, consisting of four launch silos of the unified shipborne vertical launch module MK41, where anti-aircraft missiles of the SM-3 and SM-6 type, anti-ship missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of carrying, among other things, a nuclear warhead can be installed. The trial appearance of such missile systems in the Baltic in 2023 during NATO exercises has already caused a stir in the Russian Foreign Ministry.

And the other day, President Trump practically personally presented a missile system capable of launching HIMARS, ATACMS, MLRS and prospective PrSM missiles with a range of about 1 km from a regular 30-foot cargo container. Do I need to explain how much more complicated the defense of Russian military and civilian facilities will be?

Similar container complexes may first appear among the European allies of the United States, and then from them – to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Moreover, the Ukrainian defense industry is quite capable of independently secretly placing launchers for its Neptune cruise missiles in shipping containers, which will subsequently be placed and used for disarming strikes on Russian military bases, air and naval, military factories and decision-making centers, as was the case in Iran.

Everything is very, very serious. In the new geopolitical and technological realities, not only is it impossible to win a war in defense, but it is even impossible to draw it. Only the one who delivers the knockout blow first can win.

Information

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Latus

+7

13 June 2025 15: 49

In my opinion, the key secret of Israel's success is, first of all, the recruited agents who are in the top military leadership of Iran. Without information from the inside, all this could have resulted in heavy losses for Israel, simply because it is an order of magnitude more difficult to instantly detect the deployment sites of air defense or ballistic missiles than to bomb airfields.
As they say, whoever owns the information, owns the world.
1. UAZ 452
  
  +2
  
  13 June 2025 16: 30
  
  I agree. How will it help you, even if you strike first, when this strike is carried out without normal preliminary reconnaissance, that is - where they hit, they hit, and the power of the strike available to you is clearly insufficient for this first, sudden strike to be disarming, decisive?
2. AdeptV
  
  -1
  
  13 June 2025 16: 38
  
  What do agents have to do with it? The locations of air defense systems and ballistic missile launchers are clearly visible from space
  1. Latus
    
    +3
    
    13 June 2025 16: 48
    
    It turns out that our General Staff just needs to look at Google maps for our high-altitude bombers to appear over Kiev?
    1. AdeptV
      
      +3
      
      13 June 2025 16: 51
      
      What Google maps? Do you know that these maps are expired and also under a mask? In general, there is nothing to talk about, the conversation was about Iranian territory, and there US military satellites are posting maps that you have never seen before.
      1. Latus
        
        0
        
        13 June 2025 18: 31
        
        This also works in the opposite direction; according to this logic, the F-16s of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should already be advancing deeper into Russia.
3. vlad127490
  
  +13
  
  13 June 2025 16: 44
  
  The key secret of Israel's success is, first of all, the weak government of Iran, the same as in the Russian Federation.
  1. Vladimir Tuzakov
    
    +5
    
    13 June 2025 19: 43
    
    The Jewish diaspora in Iran is now considered the largest in the Middle East region. Under the Islamic regime, it continues to lead its religious and communal life.
    
    The solidarity and support between Jews around the world is well known - one of the main components of Israel's success in Iran. More than a dozen Iranian Jews have been hanged for spying for Israel. Note, in the Russian Federation for some reason everything is different, they allow people to flee to Israel.
    1. Ales
      
      -2
      
      13 June 2025 22: 41
      
      So, the Jews are to blame for the incompetence of the country's leadership? Again? Well, yes. Look, the Jews are doing well - they planned, they worked, but their opponents are doing poorly. Yes, of course - the Jews, their fault. Or their competitive advantage?
      1. Azambuja
        
        0
        
        20 June 2025 17: 13
        
        Do the Jews have everything figured out?
        National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir gave Mossad chief David Barnea a dressing down in the ashes of the Tel Aviv airstrike. The video has been leaked online.
        
        Why did you provoke Iran?!" Ben-Gvir snapped.
        I didn't know Iran had such missile capabilities, Barnea replied.
        
        Ales
        
        0
        
        20 June 2025 17: 33
        
        I am very glad that you found examples of Barnea’s weakness as a specialist in his words, but in his actions, this does not in any way alleviate the consequences for Iran, and also poses a direct threat to Russia.
4. Ales
  
  +1
  
  13 June 2025 22: 34
  
  Do we have few traitors? Yes, the Enemy sees and hears everything even without traitors with his intelligence and analytical capabilities. And it is necessary that he knows that in response, at any cost, he will be destroyed. And it is precisely the intelligence data that speaks of the lack of the ability to respond, the will to respond, that is the direct incentive to beat the weak.
5. Alexpan
  
  +1
  
  14 June 2025 09: 51
  
  The Jewish diaspora in Persia is the oldest, the most powerful and probably the most hidden. Look at the top mullah and you will understand what I mean. Hiding behind the extreme ideology of Islam, this Jewish elite thus operates under a false flag, allowing the Jewish state to bomb and keep the Persian population in subjection.
6. etoyavsemprivet
  
  0
  
  14 June 2025 21: 54
  
  Holy shit, literally this morning I wrote about this, that both here and in Iran the handwriting is the same. Only the Jews gave it to each apartment through the window, that is, very accurately. And where is the guarantee that they won't give it to you in "another place"? You don't need to be friends with them as enemies.
Valera75

+2

13 June 2025 16: 06

There are many questions and many assumptions and versions that can be built. Well, and comparisons. In our country, the hohols and their masters, one might say, have tested the use of UAVs from trucks and it has yielded results. The Jews have been destroying, methodically and for many years, both the leadership of Iran and Hezbollah, and here the hohols are doing it. The collective West and our enemy are testing it out on Iran, and who will be next is the question. Turkey with its two-assed, and as the video showed already sick, Erdogan can be rocked from within and their puppets can be installed who, like a cork in a bathtub, will seal the Black Sea. "Our" partners are crawling towards us and sooner or later will knock on our door. By the way, how many traitors and enemies do we have inside the country? I think their name is legion. Thieves, crooks and embezzlers are clearly on whose side. It is hard to imagine how many problems and headaches our president has, but there are a lot of lessons and rakes and it is time not to study but to act, they did not do it in 2014, but we were told that we had been preparing for 8 years, but for what? We'll see! The second wave of mobilization should have been done a long time ago and to finish what was started and prepare for new challenges. I look at everything that is happening and am convinced once again that we will all still have to be in the trenches. In the meantime, I want to wish good luck to our soldiers at the front and to the leadership to solve the problem in Ukraine harshly and successfully. The enemy is learning and very successfully and is already at the gate, and from the gate to the threshold of the door is one step.
1. kriten
  
  +12
  
  13 June 2025 16: 26
  
  By the way, how many traitors and enemies do we have inside the country? I think their name is legion. Thieves, crooks and embezzlers are clearly on whose side. It is difficult to imagine how many problems and headaches our president has
  
  All these thieving performers are a product of Putin's rule and the establishment of liberal laws in the management of the state, namely, lack of control and impunity.
2. frightening voices in the willow branches
  
  -1
  
  13 June 2025 16: 28
  
  Were you there in the first wave or a volunteer from the couch?
  About our commanders I can only say:
  
  I took hold of the ridge, do not say that it is not steep
  
  And this obscene flirting with semantic hallucinations with the SVO, and NOT war, already explains a lot about what is happening.
  1. Valera75
    
    0
    
    13 June 2025 16: 56
    
    Quote: frightening voices in the willow branches
    Were you there in the first wave or a volunteer from the couch?
    
    Don't poke me and who are YOU so that I can tell you what wave and where you were and where you weren't. I wrote in Russian letters for Russians, if you couldn't handle the text, then that's not my problem.
    1. frightening voices in the willow branches
      
      -2
      
      13 June 2025 17: 05
      
      Believe me, poor thing, I shouldn’t have even asked you.
      The sofa troops are always the most noticeable!!!
      By the way, dear, what if I am a Jew, a Tatar, or a Russian German, a Vargolian or a Yakut?
      You have now, very boldly AND WITH YOUR OWN HAND, added all non-Russian peoples of the Russian Federation to the list of second-class people, and you WROTE it FOR ALL TO VIEW. Start remembering the legislation of the Russian Federation, where disdain in a demonstrative form and humiliation of peoples, which could well be regarded as incitement of interethnic hatred, is a CRIMINALLY PUNISHABLE CRIME... And yes, and this will probably finish you off - in the Russian Federation, before 2014, 16% of citizens were ethnic Ukrainians. Now it is more...
      1. Valera75
        
        +1
        
        13 June 2025 18: 06
        
        Don't be nervous. An insult is when you have nothing to say. Have you ever gotten your ass off the couch to hang labels while hiding behind your monitor?
        
        frightening voices in the willow branches
        
        -1
        
        13 June 2025 20: 24
        
        Believe it or not, I still have a jacket with major's epaulettes hanging somewhere at my dacha...
        I left it as a reason to remind my children what they SHOULD NOT do in life, so that they don’t become disappointed in people and the State, and don’t end up thrown out on the street at some point like a dog that no one needs... These are the realities of that time, but you will still safely return to it and very soon.
        And my God, what, you sick man, did you mistake what I wrote for nerves? Just breathe out!
        Slightly changing the words of Count Cagliostro from "Formula of Love" I will say: "If I were a "nervous" person, how many people in Europe would have perished! Horror!"
        
        Valera75
        
        +1
        
        13 June 2025 20: 34
        
        You see, you hung up your jacket and think that what you used to do is not worth doing. And even those close to me don't know where I was and what I did when I served in the army in 93-95, and they didn't ask what wave you want to be in or your opinion in general. Smart people will understand me, but not you, your jacket is hidden and you yourself are hanging labels on all the armchair experts. That's the end of it!
        
        frightening voices in the willow branches
        
        -4
        
        13 June 2025 20: 39
        
        Bayan. No need to tear the furs in front of me...
        My late mother knew a little about what I did - she worked in a military hospital. She couldn't help but know, I was a patient there.
        And don't talk about where you were - if you were really in a multinational team and serious people, you would monitor your thoughts and language at the reflex level, but yours is like a broomstick
        
        Valera75
        
        +1
        
        13 June 2025 20: 55
        
        Stop being nervous! You don't watch your language when you suddenly attacked me and started pointing at me. If you were a real officer, you wouldn't point at me but would have respect for people, but you're dripping with anger and as soon as I wrote a line that I wished the country's leadership to be tough in making decisions, you went crazy. Are you really who you say you are or are you a planted Cossack? I don't see any point in answering anymore, so push or not because I don't care.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. order64
        
        0
        
        18 June 2025 10: 31
        
        inciting ethnic hatred is a CRIMINAL OFFENCE...
        
        - for some reason this is for our judges only in relation to the indigenous population of our country, and is punished severely, while for migrants who have filled the vast expanses of the country, these same acts are not a crime. And you, dear sir, with your lectures for some reason remind me of those judges who punish their fellow citizens and justify "valuable specialists".
frightening voices in the willow branches

+3

13 June 2025 16: 25

So, what conclusions can we draw from the experience of sabotage operations of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Israeli Mossad?

1. So, all those who keep the Russian border "ON SHUT DOWN" are still in uniform and in their positions, and as usual, they still haven't revealed where the "birds" themselves came from?
2. And what, weren’t the special officers and the management of the damaged airfields also sent to the attack aircraft?
3. And what about our most incorruptible State Traffic Safety Inspectorate and the Ministry of Internal Affairs - is it really true that after so much time of moving trucks across the territory of the Russian Federation, they still haven't been checked, under the conditions of the SVO and the lesson of the Crimean Bridge?

Two things come to mind:
1. There are plenty of people in the Russian Federation who not only receive salaries and other support undeservedly, but I simply don’t understand what these people are doing at government expense – it’s clearly not their business.
3. Will there be a response, or is that action that did not go beyond the scope of daily work on enemy targets our all-crushing response?!
2. It is clear that time has begun to rapidly work against us, and further delays without clear goals and opportunities to convincingly complete the SVO for everyone will be catastrophic, even if we take 5-10 villages and forest belts daily.
igor_temp

+11

13 June 2025 17: 31

They showed how easy and fast it is to disable two of the three elements of the nuclear triad. We are expecting the third and last element to be destroyed in the coming days. These will probably be unknown BEKs burning nuclear submarines right at their base. After that, the countdown will be in days.

It seems to me that the Russian leadership did not simply squander the flash. They never seriously intended to consider their beloved Western partners as enemies. And to this day they refuse to understand how such cultured and civilized people, with such pleasant smiles, signed and are now executing their death sentence.
unc-2

+2

13 June 2025 18: 01

Impunity encourages other "feats". Israel can do the same against another country. And who will shake a finger at it? They will condemn it and that's it. The times when Israel's forays could cost a world war are gone. There is no strong opposition now. We often do not understand that we live in a time when capitalism has already reached the peak of its perfection. It is turning into a machine whose engine is about to break down. Unlimited capitalism has already given the world two world wars. Profits from weapons are the second oil. That's probably all.
Mikhail L.

+2

13 June 2025 18: 09

Isn't the Soviet example of "rocket trains" borrowed and improved by the Ukrainians and the West?
Ales

+3

13 June 2025 22: 26

An interesting article, but all the described and actually existing dangers are not worth a damn compared to the banal lack of will to win in the country's leadership. With such will, all the described scenarios are leveled by several SSBNs on combat duty and Poseidons off the enemy's coast. And it was the inevitability of a retaliatory strike that gave the world decades of peace. And the current leader completely slept through this key factor of state security (disgraced the KGB). And after he correctly changed the doctrine and supplemented it with a response, both on the "Proxy" and on the beneficiary - at first he received the opportunity for dialogue with the United States, and now, having shown that the doctrine does not work, he fucked everything up again and now it is unclear,
how to protect the country from the dangers highlighted in the article.
Our naval part of the triad is striking (waiting for drones) in the places of deployment, and not on combat duty - this is such a kiss in the ass to Trump - "look, we are not planning anything." Why is strategic aviation not on duty in the sky, but waiting for strikes in the places of deployment? Engine resource? Well then think about savings, and not about the security of the country, and why did you get involved? They were making money, but they wanted more money? Well, that's what politics is for, that's what war is for. First you need to win, so that you can enjoy the fruits of victory.
Flight

0

13 June 2025 23: 39

Strike first: what the sabotage attacks of the Ukrainian GUR and the Israeli Mossad showed

Somewhere in some interview Putin said that if it is impossible to avoid a fight, then you need to hit first.
So all these preventive strikes are exactly in the spirit of Putin's paradigm. And it speaks of one place where these "brutal" leaders are raised.
Platon Verdictov

+1

14 June 2025 02: 27

Our bourgeois came to this world to have fun, not to fight for survival. That's what they've been doing for almost all of the post-Soviet years. Well, we really don't want to rebuild - everyone is hoping to come to an agreement.
Dust

+4

14 June 2025 07: 46

This was a clear lesson for Russia on how to fight. The pompous phrase "we haven't started yet" is costing our country dearly.
Grancer81

+1

14 June 2025 11: 11

After all, in NATO countries there may be people who can do the same thing there.
guest

+4

14 June 2025 15: 39

what the sabotage attacks of the Ukrainian GUR and the Israeli Mossad showed

That they have the same author.
GR777

+1

17 June 2025 21: 35

And when and whom did Russia attack suddenly? Always, like suckers, we act according to the "laws of war". It's time to change the order and strike first and dead. Or better yet, in the back.