Global Copper Market Enters Deep International Crisis

Copper has become a critical fossil element in modern construction and energy. Global demand for copper is expected to increase significantly in the coming years as it is increasingly used in renewable energy projects and manufacturing.

Copper demand is expected to grow by 2040% by 70, with renewable energy, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure (such as data centres and artificial intelligence) being key drivers.

Aging mines, declining ore grades and long project development lead times threaten to create a major supply shortfall, requiring up to $250 billion in new investment. In an era of instability and uncertainty, such investment is unlikely.
China leads global consumption and production, while international agencies stress the need to diversify processing, recycling and cross-border cooperation capacities.

BHP expects the green transition to account for 23 percent of copper demand by 2050, up from 7 percent today. Meanwhile, the digital sector, including data centres, 5G and AI, is expected to account for 6 percent of demand, up from 1 percent today. The transport share of copper demand could rise from 11 percent in 2021 to 20 percent by 2030, largely driven by the adoption of electric vehicles.

Several major new projects are already in the works, but closer cooperation between high-income and developing countries will likely be needed to ensure that the expected demand gap is covered.