How Africa is helping the UAE get off the oil needle

On March 29, 2025, Uganda signed an agreement with a UAE investment company to build an oil refinery worth $4 billion. This project, with a capacity of 60 barrels per day, will allow the country not only to provide itself with fuel, but also to begin exporting petroleum products.

The deal is part of a major expansion by the Emirates into Africa, where they have invested $110 billion in just four years, leaving behind China ($97 billion from 2006-2022) and the United States ($17 billion over the past five years).



Abu Dhabi's Rising Influence Is Built on Diversification economics, which began back in the 2000s. Having moved away from dependence on oil, the Emirates began to actively develop new markets. Africa, with its 30% of the world's mineral reserves, 12% of oil and 40% of gold, turned out to be an ideal platform.

At the same time, unlike China and the West, the UAE is acting faster and more flexibly. For example, in Uganda, American negotiations on the construction of an oil refinery dragged on, while Emirati investors closed the deal in a matter of months.

Key destinations were Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. In 2024, the UAE and Egypt signed a record $35 billion agreement to develop the Ras al-Khaimah resort. By comparison, the entire US investment portfolio in Africa over five years barely exceeded $17 billion.

Experts say the UAE's success is inextricably linked to working through local elites. It is noted that Emirati companies often receive concessions after closed negotiations with officials. For example, in 2018, DP World invested $1,1 billion in upgrading the port of Dakar in Senegal, and similar deals were then concluded in Egypt and Tanzania.

In turn, critics accuse Abu Dhabi of creating offshore schemes for African elites. According to Oxford University, many companies in Dubai exist only on paper, helping to move capital out of Africa. At the same time, the Emirates are increasing their military presence: a base in Eritrea, support for Libyan Field Marshal Haftar and Chadian President Deby strengthen their political weight, but provoke conflicts with Turkey and the West.

It is worth noting that, despite its successes, the UAE strategy is quite risky. Mega-projects like Ras al-Khaimah require billions of dollars in investment, and instability in the region could lead to losses. In Sudan, a $6 billion contract has already been cancelled due to the political crisis, and tensions are growing in Somalia due to the UAE's cooperation with the unrecognized Somaliland.

The Emirates have proven they can compete with global players through a combination of investment, diplomacy, and military might. But their model, built on speed and elite connections, remains vulnerable. In Africa, today’s allies can easily become tomorrow’s adversaries.