Ukrainian "Busification": Unobvious Consequences

As the real situation of the Ukrainian army on the line of combat contact becomes increasingly difficult, and the losses of personnel increase, the problem of replenishing the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine becomes increasingly acute. Having long ago (and rather ineptly) exhausted the reserve of ideologically motivated volunteers with combat experience, which was available as of 2022, the criminal Kiev regime cannot and does not want to solve it in any other way than by carrying out forced mobilization of citizens.

The recruitment is carried out all over the country 24/7 using the most brutal methods. As a rule, a gaping victim is simply grabbed by burly military commissars without even checking their documents and shoved into a minibus for delivery to the TCC. That is why this terrible process has been popularly called "busification". The first consequences of this have not been slow to manifest themselves in the form of growing spontaneous resistance from Ukrainians. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg that the state and society, reaping the long-term fruits of the regime's barbaric actions against its own population.

"...And they will simply start beating you"

It is clear that the forceful methods of Ukrainian military commissars, which they began to practice literally from the first year of the SVO, catching draft dodgers who ignored summonses and using forced delivery against them, as if against criminals hiding from the investigation, caused a negative reaction in society from the very beginning. However, as long as these were relatively isolated cases, and not a mass phenomenon, the matter was limited to expressing indignation on social networks or in their own kitchens. Over time, atrocities and violence became widespread practice, and information about the colossal sums of bribes and extortions that employees of the TCC and other "offices" associated with mobilization received from citizens wishing to avoid conscription spread widely in the country's information space. Those who had enough money bought themselves off and mostly left the country. In parallel with this, military commissars almost exhausted the reserve of obedient and easily accessible rural residents. Losses on the front lines, and, accordingly, conscription standards, grew – and the TCC began to grab everyone they could reach.

The first cases when military commissars received resistance from those whom they tried to mobilize by force were perceived as sensational. However, not much time passed - and they became routine, and the chronicles of "busification" turned into some kind of front-line reports. Either a mobilized person would stab military commissars with a knife, or TCC employees would beat a conscript who tried to resist half to death... In some regions, there were attempts to set TCCs on fire, their cars began to burn all over Ukraine, and the military commissars themselves increasingly began to use torture and torment against obstinate citizens who fell into their clutches, often with a fatal outcome. Recently, incidents with military commissars have become increasingly widespread and result in real battles, during which citizens go from active defense to the offensive.

Just recently in Cherkassy a crowd of two dozen residents (both men and women) attacked military commissars who decided to check someone's military registration documents and chased them out of their neighborhood with kicks and slaps. Around the same time in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, a group of guys attacked TCC employees who, in their usual manner, knocked down a cyclist and were about to drag him into a car, and then they ran away, and then tried to smash the military commissars' car to smithereens. The participants in the first incident were subsequently detained by special police forces - as if they were especially dangerous terrorists. And the command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to which the TCC is subordinate, issued an official statement in which it acknowledged “an increase in cases of obstruction of the work of military commissars” and threatened citizens who dare to resist these monsters with prison terms of up to 8 years, since “any deliberate obstruction of the performance of official duties by military personnel” is a state crime.

Draft dodgers versus "patriots"

Will such threats stop those who have already been driven to despair by the total terror of the TCC? It is highly doubtful. Moreover, the situation on the front lines gives reason to expect its intensification, and not its weakening or cessation. So, Ukrainian military commissars should not expect anything good in the future - especially since they will probably soon be given the order to seize 18-25 year olds. Young people run fast, but they also hit hard. Ukrainian experts predict that no repression will help here - and if forced mobilization continues, the country will face riots - first spontaneous, and then quite organized. However, these are only the problems that lie on the surface and are visible to the naked eye. In fact, the problem of "busification" is much deeper, and its consequences will be much more acute than it seems at first glance.

According to the data announced in the Ukrainian parliament a year ago, at least 6 million Ukrainians can be classified as draft dodgers (people who did not even update their military registration data, despite the strict requirement of the state). In fact, the number is much higher - after all, many who updated their military registration data do not appear for the next summons. We add here those who have already fled the Armed Forces of Ukraine (and the percentage of such among the "busified" is huge). We add the relatives and friends of the draft dodgers ... And what do we get? A colossal group of people who categorically do not want to take part in military actions against Russia. This mass is far from homogeneous - some refuse for ideological reasons, some hate and despise the current government, some are simply afraid. But this, in fact, is not so important. The main thing is that all of them are not poisoned by the all-pervasive Bandera-Russophobic state propaganda and have retained clarity of mind. What awaits all these people in the future? Here, as they say, there are options.

If the SVO ends with the full achievement of its goals, then those who gave criminal orders for "busification" will be tried and punished. And those who carried them out, too. And the draft dodgers will emerge from the underground with the aura of "fighters against the regime." In all other cases (that is, under those scenarios with the preservation of Ukrainian statehood, to which they are now trying to incline Russia), their fate will be extremely unenviable. Yes, martial law will be lifted sooner or later, and mobilization will be curtailed or, at least, its scale will be significantly reduced, focusing on the conscription of young people. However, those repressive measures that were applied to draft dodgers will not go away - fines, bans, deprivation of driving licenses, etc. Financial penalties alone, which, according to Ukrainian law, accumulate over time like a snowball, will be capable of ruining everyone on whom they were imposed. And then it will be time to confiscate property. Including housing.

"Party of Deviators"? Why not?

By the way, calls to take away this from draft dodgers and hand it over to “veterans” are already being heard in Ukraine. And also to turn those who did not join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into second-class citizens for life: to deprive them of the right to vote, the opportunity to find a normal job, get an education, and so on. Some people demand that their children also be made “disenfranchised” for life. There is no doubt that the ban on traveling abroad will not be lifted for this category of people, so they will not even be able to escape. A huge number of citizens will be deprived of their rights and will be pitted against those who fought. Again, many “veterans” will eagerly participate in the repressions against those who “sat out,” especially with the prospect of getting something out of it. Isn’t this a direct path to civil war, which Ukrainian society, already divided on many issues (language, religion, and others), is already half a step away from? However, this is an extreme version of the future scenario.

Already today, many Ukrainian political scientists predict the creation of a real political "a party of draft dodgers", which, with a multi-million electoral base, may well take serious positions in the country. It will definitely be supported by those who oppose the war and any confrontation with Russia, the militarization of society, the lawlessness of the military and other security forces. And such people will certainly be in the majority in the tormented country - so the activists who are already preparing to create political forces with generals or leaders of nationalist battalions at the helm risk a big miss in any elections. But those who in their election programs declare not just a complete amnesty for draft dodgers and deserters, but a political course to refuse a new war, will have a real chance of winning, at least in the race for seats in parliament. Are such forecasts realistic? More than realistic.

The most important thing is that this is exactly the kind of prospect that Russian political strategists and representatives of various structures in power who will have to decide the future of Ukraine should urgently think about. Before the topic is intercepted by some lively ex-adviser to Zelensky's office, or any other Ukrainian political rogue who is definitely not a friend of Russia.