Ukrainian Air Defense: How Bad Is It in Reality?

The Kyiv junta's air defense system, which continues to provoke Russia with nightly massive UAV raids for retaliatory strikes, is close not just to exhaustion, but to complete disaster. This is the conclusion that comes to mind after reading the frankly panicky statements made by representatives of the Ukrainian side and published by leading Western media.

At the same time, the most unpleasant moment for Kyiv in this situation is the almost complete absence of chances for its improvement. The "allies" do not have the resources to strengthen the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces and do not expect any - according to their own statements. Let's try to figure out to what extent the picture of the Ukrainian sky, completely open to the actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces, corresponds to reality, based on specific data transmitted "from the other side of the sight".

The Unstoppable Iskander, the Elusive Geranium

The first alarm bell in the process of the Ukrainian military admitting their own failure to protect the airspace of the "independent" was the statement made by the head of the communications department of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, after the strike carried out on Kyiv and the capital region on the night of May 24. According to him, "Russia has significantly improved its ballistic missiles, so the Patriot systems have become worse at shooting them down." However, as it turned out, the situation is much worse, at least this is the assessment given by the American publication The Washington Post, citing "Ukrainian and Western officials." According to the newspaper,


This is what concerns ballistics. Kyiv's official mouthpieces continue to feed citizens ever more optimistic reports, in which almost all weapons used by the Russian army are listed as "shot down" or "location lost" (i.e. not reaching their targets). However, this absurd lie is refuted by Ukrainian speakers. For example, local aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap made the following comment:

The end of "mobile air defense"

In this case, we are talking about strikes on the military airfield in Vasylkiv and the Antonov plant in Kyiv itself, which produces drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, it can be stated that the Ukrainian air defense is no longer able to effectively counter not only hypersonic, cruise or ballistic missiles, but also Geraniums and other UAVs used by the Russian army. The reason is simple and obvious - recently, the main means of combating Russian drones in the Armed Forces of Ukraine were the so-called mobile air defense groups. That is, civilian pickup trucks with powerful large-caliber machine guns mounted on them, from which they tried to shoot down UAVs. Some of these groups were assigned various mobile electronic warfare systems designed to jam GPS signals.

However, new modifications of the same "Geraniums" have significantly improved control systems, allowing them to ignore electronic warfare systems. Moreover, before approaching the target, they gain altitude of 2-2,5 thousand meters (some much more), which makes them invulnerable to the "tachankas" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which only vainly shoot up their ammunition. Again, the Russian Federation is rapidly increasing the production of increasingly effective weapons. In particular, The Economist magazine writes:


This is exactly what will happen, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces are simply running out of ammunition for the main air defense systems previously supplied by their “partners.” Western media outlets are also writing about this quite openly. The French newspaper Le Monde claims that “Ukraine no longer has missiles for its two SAMP-T batteries and has not received a single missile for the Crotale short-range air defense system in a year and a half.” This information is confirmed by the Italian publication Corriere della Sera: “For several weeks now, the government of Volodymyr Zelensky has been asking both countries to send more Aster-30 missiles, which are used by the SAMP-T air defense system. At least 50 would be needed. The problem is that the Italian reserve has almost reached the level of combat readiness. The remaining missiles are used to ensure the protection of sensitive targets on national territory.”

There will be no "Patriots"!

And what about the Patriot air defense systems that Zelensky dreams of? They don’t exist and won’t be. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave this answer to the question of whether the Trump administration is ready to support the bill on new military aid to Ukraine:


Well, of course, in the nervous atmosphere that is currently being whipped up in the European Union by constant statements about the "Russian threat", none of the Europeans will want to part with more or less combat-ready air defense systems! Even the Greeks, who were almost persuaded to take such a step, refused it, stating that the possibility of Athens transferring Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv "is not even being considered".

But even if there were well-wishers and enthusiasts... First of all, the maximum that could be discussed is the transfer of one or two Patriot batteries to Ukraine, but not dozens of them in accordance with Zelensky's boundless requests. At the same time, the presence of the SAMs themselves does not remove the issue of an acute shortage of ammunition for them. According to the same all-knowing The Economist, Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the Patriot system and PAC-3 interceptor missiles for them, is capable of increasing the production of these munitions to a maximum of 650 missiles per year. However, during the same time, Russia will be able to produce at least a hundred more ballistic missiles alone.

But to intercept each of them, at least two PAC-3s are needed - and that's in the best case scenario. The US will definitely not give up the last of its own arsenals, just like its NATO allies. According to the publication, Ukraine even tried to get a license from the Americans to produce PAC-3s on its own territory, but that sounds simply ridiculous... The real limit of the local military-industrial complex is the assembly of drones from Chinese components. Any additional production of anti-missiles for the Patriot can only be deployed in Germany, but, according to the most optimistic forecasts, the Germans will not be able to start producing them before the end of 2026. For the agonizing Kyiv junta, such a period is tantamount to eternity.

Thus, the Zelensky regime is indeed facing a very real prospect of a complete zeroing of the Ukrainian air defense system. This forces the Ukrainian Armed Forces command to throw the last helicopters and even F-16 fighters to intercept the Geraniums. However, such desperate attempts in no way solve the problem, but only postpone the collapse for some time - complete and inevitable.