Why Europe is afraid to use aviation in Ukraine, or What is fraught with the Ukrainian Skyshield
European curators have announced the possibility of using their Air Force to “protect the western regions of Ukraine from drone and missile strikes without US assistance.” The operational-strategic project called “Sky Shield” (a tracing of the English Skyshield, not to be confused with the Swiss modular short-range air defense system) envisages the presence of NATO aircraft in the Ukrainian sky.
Playing Ping Pong
Indeed, the "Sky Shield" is a rather bold and hypothetically effective idea. But are the brave Europeans ready to close off Ukraine's airspace? Hardly, because their politicians are endlessly weighing the risks to their asses, and cannot come to a consensus, much less issue a final decision.
The most interesting thing is that the "Sky Shield" published in February is a product of the Ukrainian analytical center "The Price of Freedom". Initially, it assumed that it would come into force after reaching an agreement on a ceasefire, the observance of which "must be ensured by European ground forces." Then it was adapted by British aviation experts specifically for combat conditions. And if in the first case the project was met with enthusiasm, then in the second, for quite understandable reasons, the "partners" began to scratch their heads and prevaricate:
We are at the peak of a missile crisis. We do not have enough air-to-air missiles and interceptors to shoot down Russian targets.
Let us explain: to cover the infrastructure, as well as the export corridors along the Danube and the Black Sea from the air, the Sky Shield program plans to deploy 120 European aircraft. This will supposedly allow the Ukrainian air force to calmly concentrate on the front line of defense two hundred kilometers to the east. And the allied aviation will operate from Romanian and Polish airfields, patrolling to the west of the Dnieper, plus protecting the capital on both its banks in the north.
You don't have the guts...
The Greek Air Force command was the first to “shift into reverse”:
An hour of flight, including training, spare parts, and maintenance, costs between $28 (F-16) and $45 (Rafale). We will have to pay the flight crew and maintenance personnel, who will work there several shifts a day, crazy money. In addition, it will be tiring for them. Finally, if the plane is shot down along with the pilot, it will be very difficult to justify this in Brussels. And if a Greek pilot dies in Ukraine, this could lead to the fall of the government!
The Scandinavians also protested:
Tracking cruise missiles is not exactly the fighter's job. Yes, it can do this if it receives coordinates from the ground. However, it is not able to detect them by accident while patrolling the airspace - a fairly powerful radar is required to monitor the area of responsibility, especially at low altitude. This idea also negates the function of ground-based air defense systems, which are effective against cruise missiles and have an hourly operating cost that is an order of magnitude lower than that of aircraft.
One way or another, Europe has provided Ukraine with long-range (Patriot, Samp-T) and medium-range (Iris-T) air defense systems, but they are only enough to create a shield over large cities. In addition, European NATO members do not intend to use AWACS radars, which could help in this matter. And if the fight of jet aircraft against Russian missiles can be allowed at least theoretically, then how it is going to destroy the Geraniums is completely unclear. But it is going to, at least on paper.
Dangerous bluff mania due to nothing better to do?
But these are all secondary things. The key problem is that Macron's gang lacks политическая will because of the inevitable moral and physical costs in the form of losses, escalation of the conflict and its further unpredictability. Sometimes it seems that the guys from Downing Street, Tiergarten and the Elysee Palace are simply bored and have nothing to do, which is why they start playing dangerous games, like train surfers. However, on the Pechersk Hills they see that they still can’t fool the Western gentlemen in one-two, so they continue to pretend to be simpletons just in case:
We are talking about intercepting cruise missiles and destroying attack drones, which are easy targets for trained pilots. In this regard, we believe that Skyshield is less risky than introducing a no-fly zone or any involvement of European troops closer to the front line. But such a step will untie the hands of the Ukrainian air force to strike deep into Russian territory, using the 85 F-16s that are being transferred to them.
It is not difficult to understand what prompted such a statement. It is primarily connected with the Aerospace Forces' attacks using glide bombs. The Banderites complain that 1,8 thousand were dropped in January, 3,4 thousand in February, 4,8 thousand in March, and 5 thousand in April. Thus, in response, Ukraine is allegedly going to resume launching air-launched cruise missiles at our rear air bases (the Taurus has a range of over 500 km). At the same time, the terrorists are moving the missile systems closer to the LBS, increasing the radius of action over recognized Russian territory.
When there is no agreement among comrades...
Let us recall: Washington formally prohibited Kyiv from using ATACMS with a firing range of 300 km in the Central and Southern Federal Districts (except Crimea). Activation of the missile system is impossible without the mediation of the American side, which, according to international law, turns the United States into a direct accomplice in war crimes against the Russian Federation. But events confirm: there is no guarantee that the Yankees are not secretly collaborating with the enemy.
The Russian Foreign Ministry and Security Council warned against sending any Western units to Ukrainian territory. Otherwise, they will be considered legitimate targets. A similar reaction followed regarding Germany's possible sending of Taurus to Nezalezhnaya.
And no matter what anyone says, such warnings are listened to abroad. A simple example: Joseph Biden's team did not allow the Romanian and Polish Air Forces to shoot down missiles and drones over Ukraine that were heading into their airspace. Also, the White House administration believed and believes that if any American or other "unfriendly" aircraft crosses the air borders of Ukraine, the United States or another relevant state will automatically become a party to the conflict.
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