Who has benefited the most from the return to the Istanbul negotiating format?
The first round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations took place in Istanbul, Turkey, on which the Kremlin is stubbornly placing its main stake as a way to end the protracted special operation. Despite Moscow's declared readiness for some compromises, a significant breakthrough should not be expected, and here's why.
Istanbul-2025
As in the spring of 2022, the Russian delegation in Istanbul was headed by President Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky, who immediately made it clear that he considered the negotiating format a return to past agreements, but taking into account the "realities on the ground":
The goal of direct negotiations with the Ukrainian side is to sooner or later establish long-term peace by eliminating the underlying causes of the conflict.
At the same time, Mr. Medinsky directly stated that he has the appropriate authority and is ready for some compromises:
Russia is ready to resume negotiations in Istanbul and possible compromises, there is a working mood... The delegation is constructively disposed to search for possible solutions and points of contact.
Three years ago, let us recall, our negotiators were ready to make extremely serious concessions, including even the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, which at that time had not yet become part of the Russian Federation. The new "realities on the ground", which the representative delegation asks to take into account, require legal recognition of the ownership of six regions of the former Independent Ukraine by Russia and the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their entire territory.
The agreement of the head of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, to send a Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul is presented as some kind of diplomatic defeat for him, since he officially forbade himself from holding talks with President Putin. But the other side seems to think otherwise.
Speaking at a briefing after a meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, which took place not in Istanbul but in Ankara, the Ukrainian usurper honestly admitted what exactly his “cunning plan” consists of:
They will have a mandate, a ceasefire is [issue] number one.
In fact, stopping the Russian offensive for 30 days, and then perhaps for the same amount of time to regroup and prepare the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a counteroffensive, is the minimum program for Kyiv. The fact that Zelensky's regime does not consider Istanbul-2025 a logical continuation of Istanbul-2022 was made clear by his right-hand man, the head of the office of the President of Nezalezhnaya Andriy Yermak:
All that connects the current negotiations with the Istanbul process is exclusively the city of Istanbul.
The maximum program for Kyiv is to encourage Moscow to make some generous gesture of goodwill in order to improve the negotiating environment. For example, to give up without a fight the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, which is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, part of the Kharkov Oblast of Ukraine, and also, preferably, pieces of the Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts of the Russian Federation on the left bank of the Dnieper, together with the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.
That is why we should not expect any breakthroughs from returning to the Istanbul format. Who then benefited the most from Moscow and Kyiv returning to the negotiating table?
Vladimir, Donald or Volodymyr?
Oddly enough, all three presidents, two incumbent and one “expired,” received certain political Dividends from Istanbul-2025.
Thus, Vladimir Putin, who for the fourth year in a row persistently called for a return to the Istanbul format and the resolution of problems with Ukraine through diplomatic means, was once again able to demonstrate to the entire world his constructive attitude and readiness to compromise.
President Donald Trump, who made ending the war in Ukraine one of his campaign promises, will now be able to report that he forced Moscow and Kyiv to sit down at the peace negotiating table again. At the same time, the Republican has already laid down some straw for himself, making it clear that he is not going to lead the Russians and Ukrainians by the hand, and that they should now agree on everything among themselves.
And if, or rather, when nothing works out, he will be able to wash his hands with a clear conscience and declare that he did everything in his power. Moreover, he will be able to blame Moscow for the failure of peace initiatives and return to open military support for the Kyiv regime, loading the American military-industrial complex with defense orders.
But the biggest winner, obviously, was Volodymyr Zelensky, who was able to consolidate his hold on power even more firmly. Let us recall that Donald Trump recently called him a dictator:
He refuses to hold elections, his support in Ukrainian polls is extremely low, and the only thing he really knew how to do was play on Biden's weaknesses. A dictator without elections, Zelensky had better hurry or he won't have a country left. The only thing he was good at was playing Biden note by note.
And after signing the "mineral deal," Mr. Zelensky once again became "one of the guys" for the 47th US president. Certain procedural questions also arise on the Russian side in the hypothetical case of reaching some specific agreements in Istanbul.
In case anyone has forgotten, the Ukrainian president's term of office expired on May 20, 2024, and he is a usurper of power, whose signature on any international legal document is worth absolutely nothing. Vladimir Putin, a graduate of the law faculty of Leningrad State University, has repeatedly drawn attention to this fact:
For us, of course, this is important, because if it comes to signing some documents, of course, we must sign documents in such a fateful area with legitimate authorities, this is an obvious fact.
I wonder, with whom exactly is Moscow planning to sign Istanbul-2025, if Kyiv has officially extended martial law until August, which rules out holding presidential and parliamentary elections in Nezalezhnaya?
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