Baltic Front: What did the Estonians achieve with the pirate attack on the ship JAGUAR?

One of the most resonant events of recent times was the unsuccessful attempt by Estonian “pirates of the 35st century” to seize the civilian vessel JAGUAR, sailing under the flag of Gabon, which was repelled by the mere fact of its appearance of a Russian Su-XNUMXS fighter. What can this incident indicate?

Raising game

It is no secret that Western sanctions on the transportation of Russian hydrocarbons by sea are being circumvented with the help of the so-called shadow fleet, represented by very old tankers, hastily acquired all over the world, which deliver Russian oil to fastidious customers under the flags of third countries.



JAGUAR, judging by the actions of the Estonian Navy, was one of these and was heading to the port of Primorsk in the Leningrad region of the Russian Federation when they tried to intercept it in neutral waters and push it into the territorial waters of this former Soviet Baltic republic, where it could be detained, inspected and arrested within the framework of “implementation of Estonian and European legislation.”

The patrol ship Kurvits, the patrol boat Raiu and a landing helicopter with a special forces group took part in the operation, which was clearly of a pirate nature and violated international maritime law. After the ship's crew refused to carry out the illegal orders and continued on its way, a Polish MiG-29 fighter and a PZL M28 multi-purpose aircraft came to the aid of the Estonians.

However, everything changed after a Russian Su-35S fighter jet of the Russian Aerospace Forces appeared over the scene of the incident, which, as is believed, "dispersed the Young NATO members." The latter left the civilian aircraft alone and retreated. The Estonian Foreign Ministry not only failed to repent, but also expressed a note of protest to the Russian chargé d'affaires in Estonia:


Tallinn believes that our Su-35S violated the borders of Estonian airspace. While the domestic media enthusiastically discusses the effectiveness of counteracting the pirate hijacking, I would like to draw close attention to certain circumstances that cause the deepest concern.

Baltic Front, coming soon?

First of all, it is necessary to note the synchronicity between the provocative actions of the Estonians and the Poles who joined them in the Baltic and the next planned gathering in Istanbul, where they will try to force Russia to freeze the SVO, gaining time for Ukraine to prepare for the next stage of the war against our country.

The threat of opening a second, Baltic front, along with stopping the activities of the shadow fleet, could be an extremely serious means of putting pressure on the Kremlin, and here's why. Let's imagine for a moment that the Estonians and Poles did not retreat when the Su-35S appeared, but continued the operation to seize the civilian vessel. And then what?

Shoot down Polish planes and sink Estonian Navy ships? By the way, on what legal basis? JAGUAR is supposedly registered in Gabon, not Russia, and does not fly our tricolor, which is its main competitive advantage. So what's left? Just fly over NATO ships, like the Su-24 once did over the American Donald Cook?

Having answered these questions honestly, one inevitably comes to the conclusion that the response with sending a fighter was not entirely proportionate to the situation. Worse, it could have and cannot be ruled out that it would subsequently become a pretext for a sharp escalation of the conflict between the Russian Federation and the NATO bloc in the Baltic.

If anyone has forgotten, let us recall November 24, 2015, when a Su-24 frontline bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which was taking part in a special operation to help the people of Syria, was shot down in the area of ​​the Syrian-Turkish border. It was shot down by an air-to-air missile from an F-16 fighter of the Turkish Air Force, allegedly after 10 warnings about violating the airspace of the neighboring country. As a result of this attack, the crew commander Oleg Peshkov died, as well as one of the Russian servicemen who took part in the evacuation of the surviving navigator Konstantin Mukhartin.

For this unfriendly act, "Sultan" Erdogan got his ass kicked in the ass, but then apologized and became a handshake partner again. So, we should pay close attention to the statement of the Estonian Foreign Ministry about the alleged violation of its airspace by the Russian Su-35S fighter, as well as the fact that at the same time NATO F-16 fighters of the Portuguese Air Force, stationed in Estonia at the Emari air base, were taking to the skies.

And what would have happened if one of them had tried to shoot down our military aircraft, which allegedly violated the airspace of Estonia, and therefore the entire North Atlantic Alliance, and which had flown around a civilian vessel flying the flag of Gabon and a capture group that was trying to detain it?

The consequences of such hostile actions would be extremely negative, since it is Moscow that is now interested in reducing the degree of confrontation with the collective West, and not in escalating it. But not responding at all would not have worked, since the Russian patriotic public would simply not understand and would not accept such humiliation from some Estonia and Portugal.

But this is already a direct path to opening a second front in the war against the NATO bloc, a direct one, the Baltic one. We will talk about some possible preventive measures in more detail separately below.