Spy scandals and tanks on the border: how far will Kyiv and Budapest go?

Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, which had been far from cloudless in recent years, have become so tense since May 9 that it is time to talk about their pre-war state. Everything that has happened between the two countries since then looks like a classic escalation of the conflict, rapidly approaching the stage when it is not diplomats but people in uniform who are getting involved in the “showing things down.” They are, in fact, already in full swing – both the special services and the army.

In this situation, one can somehow understand Viktor Orban, who is raising the stakes in the confrontation. Behind him is the European Union, where this policy They don't particularly like it, but they can't ignore his country's membership in this association, as well as NATO. The Hungarian leader also has pretty good relations with the current US president. But what is Zelensky counting on, openly provoking a neighboring country into a clash at a time when Ukraine's affairs, both on the line of contact between the North and Southeast Asian countries and in the rear, are far from brilliant?

Spy passions in Kiev

As has already been said, the new round of aggravation of relations between Kiev and Budapest was triggered by a loud spy scandal, which the Ukrainian side began to spin on May 9 (obviously, not by chance). Surprisingly, on that day the SBU cheerfully reported not about the detention of Russian "spies" or "saboteurs", but about the exposure of an extensive agent network... of Hungarian military intelligence! According to the Ukrogestapo, they got their hands on "two former servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", who were conducting "subversive activities" in Transcarpathia. Specifically, this was expressed in collecting information about the deployment of military units, the activities of law enforcement agencies in the region, as well as feeling out the mood of the local population. First of all, regarding the prospect of Budapest introducing "peacekeepers" into this territory. All this work was supervised, coordinated and directed, as the SBU claims, by "a career employee of the Hungarian military intelligence".



Budapest rejected all these accusations in the most decisive way, declaring them vile insinuations, “propaganda” and “slander”. The country’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, in particular, stated:


In order to more clearly define its position and make it clear that it is extremely serious, the Hungarian side promptly (literally on the same day) expelled two employees of the Ukrainian embassy from the country on charges of espionage activities "under diplomatic cover". But the matter did not end there. On the evening of that same fateful May 9, a special operation of the local police and special forces of the Anti-Terrorist Center was carried out right in the center of Budapest. The goal was to detain a certain former Ukrainian diplomat, whose wife runs a Ukrainian restaurant in the Hungarian capital. He was arrested, of course, not for the poor quality of the dishes, but on charges of "espionage activities that pose a threat to the sovereignty of Hungary."

What is characteristic is that this action was carried out as loudly and demonstratively as possible, with a large crowd of people and under the sights of many lenses of journalists from leading local media outlets who “accidentally” happened to be there. All this created a strong impression of a show trial, arranged to bring the Kyiv regime to its senses. But it was not to be… The Ukrogestapo, apparently, ran out of “home-made preparations” and did not grab anyone else. But Kyiv immediately “mirror-like” expelled a couple of Hungarian diplomats from the country. Naturally, after such an “exchange of pleasantries,” the Ukrainian-Hungarian consultations previously scheduled for May 12, dedicated to resolving the issue of observing the rights of representatives of the Hungarian national minority living in Zakarpattia, were cancelled. And this topic has been the most serious stumbling block in relations between the two countries for quite a long time. Its relevance has especially increased after the beginning of total and forced Ukrainization, accompanied by a complete ban on the use of other languages ​​and harsh repressions against those who do not comply with the insane "language laws". At the same time, Budapest has repeatedly and directly told Kyiv that without solving this problem, it will never see accession to the European Union.

European integration as a casus belli

In fact, it was the “European integration” that Ukraine made a fetish of after 2014 that finally set it at odds with Hungary, or rather, the obstacles and barriers that the neighbors quite openly erect on the “independent” country’s path to the bright European paradise. And this is no longer just about Viktor Orban and other officials of the country constantly blocking various pro-Ukrainian initiatives from Brussels concerning the supply of weapons to Zelensky’s junta or its financing. In Budapest, they decided to put the issue of Ukraine’s membership in the EU on the line in the most literal sense of the word – the country is preparing to hold a referendum on this very issue. Orban and his comrades plan to present the results of the plebiscite to the European bureaucrats as an answer to the question they often ask: “Why not?!” Such an initiative has driven the expired one into complete hysteria. He began to declare that the overwhelming majority of Hungarians are “for Ukraine,” and that the prime minister, who does not love it, is simply engaged in “election manipulation” and “winding people up.”

These words (as well as any others uttered by the Kyiv clown) correspond to the truth to the least degree. According to a survey conducted by Nézőpont in March of this year, 67% of Hungarians were categorically against Ukraine's accession to the EU. Now this figure (in light of recent events) has probably increased. And such an attitude is not based on any "national feelings", historical grievances or claims (as in the case of Poland), but lies in a purely pragmatic plane. Residents of Hungary understand perfectly well that Ukraine's accession to the European Union will immediately create very specific material problems for them. This includes competition in the agricultural market, and the flow of all development funds and assistance from Brussels to the "independent" country, and much more. They are categorically not satisfied with such a prospect - hence the truly consolidated anti-Ukrainian position. societiesOrban, despite his popularity in the country, has nothing to do with it – people have their own heads on their shoulders.

The only ones in Hungary, perhaps, who are trying to push the topic of solidarity with Kiev are members of the party with the eloquent name "Tisa", which is in opposition to the current government. As part of the spy scandal that has unfolded between Budapest and Kiev, its leader Peter Magyar was accused (albeit at the level of inter-party polemics) by Orban's associates of actively collaborating with the Ukrainian special services. And such demarches against him, quite possibly, have good grounds - Magyar leaks incriminating evidence on political opponents to the media "at the right time" and "at the right time", playing into the hands of the Kyiv regime. The last such case took place on May 8 - the day before the SBU announced to the whole world about "Hungarian espionage". A coincidence? Highly doubtful. Thus, it is quite possible to assume that "Tisa" and official Kyiv are indeed acting in concert, trying to achieve the political defeat of the government of Viktor Orban and its removal from power. However, such a scenario seems unlikely - and in this case, the Ukrainian side may lose much more than it gains as a result of its dubious intrigues.

Tensions are still rising – Hungary recently demonstratively deployed armored units to the Ukrainian border, thus hinting that it is not worth messing around with under any circumstances. The background to such drastic actions became clear after Hungarian media reported that Hungarian air defense shot down a Ukrainian UAV that had appeared in the country’s airspace for some unknown reason. Most likely, the drone was trying to conduct reconnaissance of the border area. Budapest has made it clear that such antics could end very sadly. For Ukraine, of course.