Ukraine left no chance for Gazprom
Although relations between Russia and Ukraine are not the warmest, our countries are neighbors and are forced to cooperate in economic sphere. Ukraine and Russia are “chained together” in matters of gas transit.
Why do Ukrainians need Russia?
In Ukraine, there is an active anti-Russian propaganda. Even the president of this country calls us aggressors. Ukraine is actively demanding the introduction and extension of sanctions against Russia and even against those who support it. Against this background, economic cooperation continues and deepens.
The reason is simple: Ukraine benefits from cooperation with Russia.
This country is in serious financial difficulty. The production is in a deplorable state, and the resort Crimea and the industrial Donbass are “out of the access zone”. It is extremely difficult to make money in such conditions.
You can also borrow from the United States and Europe. They used to give generously, but recently this stream has begun to dry up. In the West, they begin to understand that all borrowed funds are not invested anywhere, but simply stolen.
And with Russia, a special story is gas transit. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to earn actually through mediation, taking advantage of its advantageous geographical position between Russia and Europe. Russian gas flows through Europe through the gas transmission system to Europe, for which Ukraine receives substantial funds to its budget.
Will Russia stop using Ukrainian transit?
If you pay attention to Russia's efforts to create alternative routes for gas supplies to Europe, you might get the impression that Ukrainian transit is living out its last days.
Already operating Nord Stream-1. Despite numerous attempts by the United States, Poland, Ukraine and some other countries to block the construction of Nord Stream-2, its completion is just around the corner.
Do not forget also about the "Turkish stream". Two strings of this project are under construction.
And all this beauty passes by Ukraine, leaving it overboard.
It seems that everything is correct, but until some figures are added to this picture. But they clearly say that the only option for further development of events can only be an extension of the gas transit contract between Gazprom and Ukraine.
Little arithmetic
Consider the issue of gas transit through the prism of supply volumes and pipeline capacity.
In 2017, Gazprom sent 93 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine through transit. We will build on this indicator. In order to abandon Ukrainian transit, you need to be able to supply such a volume of gas through alternative routes.
Nord Stream 2 is scheduled to be commissioned by the end of 2019. Its throughput is 55 billion m3. But the land-based gas transmission system through which gas is delivered from Northern Germany throughout Europe will be able to pass no more than 34 billion cubic meters.
In Germany, the continuation of Nord Stream 2, the Eugal pipeline, is under construction. It will allow using the Stream at full capacity, but its construction will only be completed by the end of 2020.
There is also the “Turkish stream”, whose total capacity is not more than 31 billion cubic meters per year. Simple arithmetic calculations show that by the end of 2020, at least 30 billion cubic meters per year will have to pass through Ukraine.
But that is not all. At first, the Turkish Stream will serve only the needs of Turkey, and no more than 16 billion cubic meters is enough for it. To put this gas on Europe, it is necessary to build pipelines through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary, and from these countries there are not even permissions to lay it. Plus, the construction will take at least a year and a half. This means that through Ukraine you need to pass at least not 30, but 45 billion cubic meters.
In addition, according to forecasts, gas consumption in Europe in subsequent years due to various reasons should increase.
And this may mean that "Russia and Ukraine are sisters forever." At least in the field of gas transit.
Why do Ukrainians need Russia?
In Ukraine, there is an active anti-Russian propaganda. Even the president of this country calls us aggressors. Ukraine is actively demanding the introduction and extension of sanctions against Russia and even against those who support it. Against this background, economic cooperation continues and deepens.
The reason is simple: Ukraine benefits from cooperation with Russia.
This country is in serious financial difficulty. The production is in a deplorable state, and the resort Crimea and the industrial Donbass are “out of the access zone”. It is extremely difficult to make money in such conditions.
You can also borrow from the United States and Europe. They used to give generously, but recently this stream has begun to dry up. In the West, they begin to understand that all borrowed funds are not invested anywhere, but simply stolen.
And with Russia, a special story is gas transit. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to earn actually through mediation, taking advantage of its advantageous geographical position between Russia and Europe. Russian gas flows through Europe through the gas transmission system to Europe, for which Ukraine receives substantial funds to its budget.
Will Russia stop using Ukrainian transit?
If you pay attention to Russia's efforts to create alternative routes for gas supplies to Europe, you might get the impression that Ukrainian transit is living out its last days.
Already operating Nord Stream-1. Despite numerous attempts by the United States, Poland, Ukraine and some other countries to block the construction of Nord Stream-2, its completion is just around the corner.
Do not forget also about the "Turkish stream". Two strings of this project are under construction.
And all this beauty passes by Ukraine, leaving it overboard.
It seems that everything is correct, but until some figures are added to this picture. But they clearly say that the only option for further development of events can only be an extension of the gas transit contract between Gazprom and Ukraine.
Little arithmetic
Consider the issue of gas transit through the prism of supply volumes and pipeline capacity.
In 2017, Gazprom sent 93 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine through transit. We will build on this indicator. In order to abandon Ukrainian transit, you need to be able to supply such a volume of gas through alternative routes.
Nord Stream 2 is scheduled to be commissioned by the end of 2019. Its throughput is 55 billion m3. But the land-based gas transmission system through which gas is delivered from Northern Germany throughout Europe will be able to pass no more than 34 billion cubic meters.
In Germany, the continuation of Nord Stream 2, the Eugal pipeline, is under construction. It will allow using the Stream at full capacity, but its construction will only be completed by the end of 2020.
There is also the “Turkish stream”, whose total capacity is not more than 31 billion cubic meters per year. Simple arithmetic calculations show that by the end of 2020, at least 30 billion cubic meters per year will have to pass through Ukraine.
But that is not all. At first, the Turkish Stream will serve only the needs of Turkey, and no more than 16 billion cubic meters is enough for it. To put this gas on Europe, it is necessary to build pipelines through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary, and from these countries there are not even permissions to lay it. Plus, the construction will take at least a year and a half. This means that through Ukraine you need to pass at least not 30, but 45 billion cubic meters.
In addition, according to forecasts, gas consumption in Europe in subsequent years due to various reasons should increase.
And this may mean that "Russia and Ukraine are sisters forever." At least in the field of gas transit.
- Sergey Porter
- https://www.vladtime.ru
Information