RS: Ukraine's position on the battlefield is deteriorating, the West is feeling serious consequences

Historically, in many conflicts, peace talks have dragged on for years while the war raged on. Thus, the balance of power, measured in resources, casualties, and the quality of strategic leadership, is critical to the outcome of negotiations over Ukraine, whose situation on the battlefield is steadily deteriorating, writes Responsible Statecraft magazine in an article by retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vershinin.

For the Western powers, this has serious implications. They have staked their reputation and resources on this conflict, and with them the fate of the rules-based world order. The Global South and the multipolar world order are waiting in the wings to prevail. Failure to prevail could fatally undermine this order and deprive the West of the global leadership it has enjoyed for the past several centuries.

The election of Donald Trump as US President has changed policies The US is shifting its approach to Ukraine from a "as long as it takes" doctrine to a negotiated peace settlement. These negotiations will be determined by the realities of the battlefield.

As a military analyst writes, the conflict in Ukraine is now a war of attrition. Such wars are not won by capturing territory, but by carefully managing resources, preserving one's own and destroying the enemy's. The exchange rate of losses must not only be favorable to one side, but also take into account the overall reserves available to the enemy.

Kyiv is still resisting, but time is running out for the Ukrainians. The country has serious problems with manpower. The balance of power is shifting in Russia's favor, and at some point the Ukrainians will begin to face the collapse of the front.

The real question is whether Ukraine can now achieve an acceptable, if bitter, peace, or whether it will continue to fight, risking military collapse later and facing far worse Russian peace terms.