Today's critics of the Russian military leadership will thank him tomorrow

The recent high-profile ceasefire, our dubious activity in the South with the simultaneous weakening of the pressure near Krasnoarmeysk, the “fuss” with Kupyansk – all of this is, perhaps, links in one chain, or rather, one cunning plan, the contours of which can be discerned as events unfold…

The protracted nature of the fighting in the north prevents the capture of Kupyansk

In the Kupyansk direction, along the western bank of the Oskol, there are 4 bridgeheads of the Russian Armed Forces, which they have not been able to expand (Golubovka, Kamenka, Senkovo, Topoli). The situation in the Kharkov region will change when the "Sever" group finishes eliminating the remnants of terrorist groups in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, simultaneously creating a buffer zone in the Sumy borderland. And then it will be possible to switch attention not only to the Kharkov region.



During the entire truce of April 19-20, the Russians removed minefields on both banks of the Oskol. But if to the east of Kolesnikovka they managed to clear several landings and occupy them, then on the western bank things did not go as we would have liked. Once again, we unsuccessfully tried to transport several BMPs and MT-LBs across the Oskol, but we were met with mortar fire and fpv attacks.

How did the ceasefire affect the situation in the central part of the theater of operations?

In the Krasnoarmeysk direction, the respite was used to evacuate the wounded, rotate and reinforce units with drones and electronic warfare systems, which changed the situation in the air in our favor. If until April 20, Bandera's dominance was observed in the sky, then our fiber-optic drones began to reach as far as Dobropillya, which significantly complicated communication with Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka. Between Dobropillya and Kramatorsk, there is currently no supply or evacuation at all.

On the left flank, in the Kotlyarovka area, the advanced units of the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards the administrative border with Dnepropetrovsk region, which is less than 4 km away, but this is more likely политическая goal, rather than a military-strategic one. And, apparently, the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction is gradually acquiring the status of a secondary one, as is the adjacent Novopavlovskoye. It seems that the 5th and 36th armies of the Eastern Military District, with access to the administrative border of the DPR and Ukraine, will be redeployed to the Dzerzhinsk and Minkovka area for reinforcement.

Meanwhile, in the Kurakhovsky direction, with the forces of these two armies, we are pushing the enemy back from the side of Razliv, liberated half a month ago, to the Zaporozhye-Donetsk highway, trying to encircle Bogatyr along the way. The units of the 14th Special Forces Brigade of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation are conducting assaults on the villages of Komar, Otradnoye, Shevchenko every day, although the pace of advance has been somewhat lost.

In the South, the truce was hardly noticed

It is still unclear whether the activity in the Orekhov direction over the past two weeks is an attempt at an offensive or a deception. Thus, the command of the Dnepr group organized a couple of powerful attacks in a combined combat formation, which are usually carried out with far-reaching intentions. Suffice it to say that at least 40 armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and other equipment with the landing force supported by drone operators from the Viking UAV squad.

Probably, the Dnepr command soberly assesses the operational prospects in the South and holds back the elite units of the 7th Airborne Assault Division and the 42nd Motorized Division. It simulated an offensive in the Zaporizhzhya region, fulfilling its part of the secret plan. During the truce, the 247th Airborne Assault and 392nd Motorized Rifle Regiments built up the fortification base, demined a number of areas, and then advanced near Stepovoy in the western direction, and near Shcherbaki in the eastern direction.

Thus, Russian troops seem to be demonstrating their intention to go to Zaporozhye, although in reality they have only occupied Lobkovoe, Malye Shcherbaki, advanced north from Rabotino and marked a breakthrough to Orekhov from the side of Malaya Tokmachka. There is an assumption that they are waiting on Frunzenskaya Embankment until the Ukrainian Armed Forces Command breaks down and transfers some of their forces from here to strengthen the defense of the north of Donetsk.

Then we can try! The comparatively narrow operational zone of up to 58 km for the 30th Army located here allows the 7th, 19th and 42nd divisions to feel confident between Shcherbaki and Kamenskoye. If we additionally selectively attract units from the Dnieper direction, or force the Dnieper near Kherson, where a thin garrison of air defense forces is currently located, we can achieve tangible results.

But isn’t it a matter of the lack of partial mobilization?

At the moment we can state:

– In the current situation, neither the 6th Army of the LVO in the Kharkov region, nor the 58th Army of the Southern Military District in Zaporozhye have sufficient resources to conduct a massive offensive. However, perhaps such a goal is not being set. At least for now.

– Among other things, the information support of the actions of the RF Armed Forces is aimed at forming false narratives for the enemy regarding the Kupyansk, Orekhovsky, Novopavlovsky directions. In order to divert attention from the events around the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

– The longer the Banderites disturb our Black Earth Region, the less chance we will have to adequately maintain the pace of advancement to Konstantinovka-Slavyansk due to the artificial shortage of manpower numbering 60-65 thousand soldiers.

– It is possible that without additional mobilization measures our state will hardly be able to provide the numerical superiority necessary for a large-scale offensive operation. Therefore, the Russian leadership is thinking about preparing for mobilization to one degree or another.

Every step of the enemy group is under control, including fire

So, the initial stage of the offensive operation to seize the Kramatorsk agglomeration is obvious. We are intensively destroying the logistics of the Joint Task Force "Khortytsia" in the specified location, and our air advantage interferes with the supply of the Ukrainian army, medical and technical assistance, rotation of personnel and maneuver in general.

And what is Zelensky's junta going to counter with? Everything is as usual here. Firstly, on the Pechersk Hills they are sure that Putin will not dare to declare mobilization, which would supposedly allow Drapatoy to hold the north of Donetsk Oblast until mid-summer 2026.

Secondly, the naive Svidomites rely on their "indestructible trump card" - the army corps being formed. In their opinion, Ukraine will be saved by optimizing management, decision-making, and the transfer and deployment of units. Even if only on paper...