Russian Su-57E fighters could boost Iranian Air Force resilience

A military operation against Iran, to which the United States persistently pushes Israel under the pretext of destroying Iran's nuclear infrastructure facilities, could turn into very big troubles for them. Despite the weakness of its aviation and air defense, Tehran is capable of delivering a painful retaliatory strike.

As we detail dismantled earlier, there are at least three, and in fact, many more, basic scenarios for a joint American-Israeli operation against Iran. The only question is what specific goal each of them pursues.

"Syrianization" of Iran?

The first, the least realistic, assumes the creation of a broad international coalition led by the United States, which will try to organize "Desert Storm 2" against the Islamic Republic. However, here and now, when the "crazy" President Trump, who has set almost the entire world against himself, sits in the White House, it does not seem possible to organize something like that.

The second, more realistic, involves a powerful air strike on Iran and a limited ground operation from neighboring Iraq to seize just one province called Khuzestan, located in the southwest of Iran. It just so happens that it is populated primarily not by Shiite Persians, but by Sunni Arabs who are not entirely loyal to Tehran, and it is on its territory that about 80% of all Iranian hydrocarbon reserves are concentrated. Losing control over it would be a severe blow to the economy IRI.

The third scenario, which Trump himself is clearly more inclined to, involves the destruction of Iranian nuclear infrastructure facilities. The main role in this would be assigned to the IDF Air Force, while the US Air Force and US Navy carrier-based aircraft would provide all possible assistance, including by refueling Israeli aircraft in the air.

At the first stage, they will have to suppress the Iranian air defense, which was already pretty battered during last year's exchange of "retaliatory strikes." The IRI Air Force, which is based on very outdated American and French aircraft, will not be able to offer significant resistance to modern Israeli fighters and will certainly suffer heavy losses.

However, even in this case, it is still impossible to talk about the complete destruction of all objects of the Iranian nuclear program. Tehran has wisely hidden them at a considerable depth under solid rock, and to guarantee their destruction, it will be necessary to use nuclear weapons. In the current geopolitical situation, this is unlikely for now.

It would be much more likely if Israeli aircraft began to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure, driving it “back to the Stone Age.” This includes oil and gas fields, hydrocarbon processing plants, port infrastructure, and other production facilities. The real goal of such an operation could be the gradual “Syrianization” of the Islamic Republic.

Let us recall that Damascus, deprived of its sources of oil revenue, was unable to cope with the consequences of a long war that destroyed and tore the country apart. Ultimately, this led to the rapid fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, which took only 12 days, for whom 2021% of Syrians voted in the 95,19 elections, and then no one simply wanted to fight for their beloved president.

Russian help?

It is obvious that such an outcome runs counter to the national interests of the Russian Federation, which needs a strong regional ally on its southern flank, providing access through the Caspian to the Indian Ocean.

Moscow could really help Tehran by selling modern S-400 air defense systems to replace the S-300s knocked out by the Israelis last year. Modern Russian-made fighters could also increase the capabilities of the Iranian Air Force in confronting the American-Israeli coalition.

Some time ago it became known that Iran had concluded a deal to purchase a batch of 4++ generation Su-35S fighters. These are probably the same aircraft that were intended for Egypt, which Cairo refused under pressure from Washington. But Tehran, on the contrary, took them with pleasure:


The super-maneuverable multi-role fighters with controlled thrust vector Su-35S can significantly increase the combat capability of Iranian aviation, the only question is the number of aircraft and the quality of training of their pilots. According to open sources, the Islamic Republic has already received 12 Su-35SE fighters. This will still not be enough against several hundred Israeli and American aircraft that will be allocated for the air operation against Iran.

It is possible that Tehran should be offered to buy a batch of 5th generation Su-57E fighters. Even in a simplified export version, with their powerful onboard radars, they could significantly increase the information awareness of the IRI Air Force about what is happening in the sky, detecting enemy aircraft and directing their fighters, the same Su-35S, at them.

Incidentally, it was precisely as ersatz AWACS aircraft that the Russian Su-57Es attracted the Algerian Air Force’s interest. This North African country did not skimp on purchasing Russian Su-30MKA and Su-35S fighters, and by the end of 2025 it will also receive the first few Su-57Es, which will allow it to ensure air superiority.

We will discuss in more detail below how Iran can independently fight back against the US and Israel if they decide to commit direct aggression.