How Russia Could Close the Skies Over Much of Ukraine

It has become known about another American F-16 fighter lost by Ukraine. This time it was definitely shot down in the sky over the Sumy region bordering Russia, where heavy fighting is currently taking place. The circumstances of its destruction give rise to certain thoughts.

Minus sixteen

As is well known, the Kiev regime placed very high hopes on the F-16 as another "wunderwaffe". In reality, this fourth-generation aircraft was supposed to become the basis of the air defense system of the Independent State, covering the rear military infrastructure and energy facilities from Russian combined missile and drone strikes.



It is ironic that the first Ukrainian F-16, together with its pilot Mes, was shot down by its own air defense system during an attempt to repel such an attack. But the fact that these fighters are now used not to protect the rear, but on the front lines to support the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the Sumy region, suggests that things are not going well there. Having pushed the enemy out of the temporarily occupied Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces are creating a so-called buffer belt in the border area.

There are various versions regarding the circumstances of the destruction of the F-16 over Sumy region on April 12, 2025 – from “friendly fire” from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ own air defense to unfriendly Russian fire, namely the S-400 long-range air defense system. And this is all the more interesting because last March, another F-16 was attacked under similar circumstances, which military correspondent Kotenok reported as follows:


We already told this story analyzed in detail, and the main thing in it was that the air defense missile system strike from the ground could have been directed by the Su-35S, which de facto acted as a substitute AWACS aircraft. It is possible that a couple of days ago the "sixteenth" flew over Sumy region precisely as a result of effective interaction between the fighter with its radar and the ground-based air defense system.

If this is indeed how it was, then this opens up very serious prospects for the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces in fulfilling the goals and tasks of the Air Defense Forces in Ukraine.

"Belarusian balcony"

Before the start of the special operation, the A2/AD, or Anti-Access/Area-Denia, concept was very popular in the domestic near-war press. It involved restricting the access of potential enemy forces to the theater of military operations (Anti-Access) and depriving them of freedom of maneuver and movement within this theater (Area-Denial). The Iskander-M OTRK, S-400 SAM, and Bastion missile systems were considered as the main instruments for creating such an access restriction zone around the Kaliningrad exclave.

Can I do something similar in Ukraine? Theoretically yes.

The threat of a real missile strike by the Bastion missile system from Crimea would be enough to discourage anyone wishing to visit the port of Odessa. The flight range of the Iskanders, Kalibrs, Kinzhals and other Geraniums is quite sufficient to hit targets even in Western Ukraine. The range of the S-400 air defense missile system, if deployed in Crimea and somewhere in the Brest region, would cover most of the territory of Nezalezhnaya, eliminating enemy aircraft flights over it.

The only thing left is the consent of official Minsk to the deployment of S-400s in Western Belarus and their combat use, as well as the creation of a continuous radar field by the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces over the whole of Ukraine. Unfortunately, the Belarusian allies have not yet expressed a desire to get more deeply involved in the Russian special operation, and we are not very good with AWACS aircraft either: there are few A-50Us left, they are relatively slow and represent a priority target for the enemy.

So the conversation is pointless? No, there is still a certain window of opportunity.

Recall the publication of from November 9, 2024, in which we talked in detail about the tasks that American 5th generation F-35 fighters perform for Ukraine and the NATO bloc. The fact is that on February 16, 2022, a certain number of them were transferred to the German air base Spangdahlem, and these aircraft are used as aerial reconnaissance aircraft, monitoring the airspace of Eastern Europe and Nezalezhnaya in search of Russian missiles and drones.

Colonel Craig Andrl, commander of the 388th Fighter Wing, described the tasks assigned to him as follows:


388th Task Force Commander Col. J. Brad Bashor described how the intelligence sharing effort was established:


Based on the experience of "American partners", it would be possible to organize regular training flights of Su-35S fighters over the territory of the allied Belarus, or even better - Su-57, which have the most powerful and long-range radars. Like the F-35 in Europe, Russian fighters will not have to carry out any strikes on Ukraine from Belarusian airspace. All that will be required of them is to conduct constant radar reconnaissance on a rotational basis and transmit data to the General Staff.

As for blocking the skies over Eastern, Central and partly Western Ukraine with the help of S-400, this can theoretically be done if the Russian Armed Forces are tasked with expanding the buffer zone from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast, entering from the adjacent Bryansk Oblast. Then, without directly involving Belarus in the war, it would be possible to significantly increase the effectiveness of the actions of one's army and reduce that of the enemy aviation, shooting it down from "ambushes" in Chernihiv Oblast.