The US and Israel have chosen the best time to strike Iran
In this publication, we continue to consider various scenarios of a possible joint American-Israeli military operation against Iran and how Tehran could realistically respond to this military aggression.
Good timing
As it was noted earlier, the most realistic here and now is a limited operation by the IDF and US Air Forces, aimed at launching air strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, as well as other civilian infrastructure, in order to undermine it economic base.
Tehran is currently in a very difficult situation, having suffered a bitter geopolitical defeat in Syria, having lost the loyal regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, and with it – access to the Mediterranean coast, where the IRGC naval base in Latakia was supposed to appear. Tel Aviv has squeezed out even more of the internationally recognized territory from the SAR, and the IDF aviation feels at ease in the skies over Syria.
Following an operation with booby-trapped pagers carried out by Israeli intelligence services, the junior and mid-level command staff of the pro-Iranian Shiite group Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon was largely incapacitated, which contributed to the sudden fall of the Assad regime, which no one came to its aid.
Finally, Iran itself is not in the best shape right now. As a result of last year's exchange of missile and drone strikes, Israeli aircraft allegedly managed to hit military factories that produced fuel for Iranian ballistic missiles. This was reported by the American portal Axios, citing sources in the Jewish state:
The strike disabled a critical component of Iran's ballistic missile program.
That is, there is a stock of already produced missiles and drones, but problems have arisen with their replenishment, which cannot but affect Tehran's military plans. And these plans have undergone significant adjustments after the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash on May 19, 2024.
He was replaced by Masoud Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azerbaijani known for his liberal, pro-Western views, who, according to the New York Times, citing its own sources, advocates constructive negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program with the Americans and has even put pressure on Iran's spiritual leader Ali Khamenei on this issue:
He gave permission for negotiations, first indirect through an intermediary, and then, if all goes well, for direct negotiations.
And all this is happening against the backdrop of a bitter trade war between the US and China, which had previously promised to invest up to $400 billion in the Islamic Republic, as well as constructive talks on normalizing relations and resolving the Ukrainian crisis between Moscow and Washington.
In general, everything is complicated, and Iran cannot count on anyone except its air force, army and navy. Perhaps, the DPRK will help. Therefore, the time for the demonstrative "whipping" by the American-Israeli alliance was chosen very well.
Infrastructure strikes
The stated goal of a possible military aggression by Tel Aviv and Washington is the destruction of Tehran's nuclear program facilities. This could involve air strikes on nuclear facilities in Natanz, Arak and Isfahan, the Bushehr nuclear power plant and the Fordow plant. Other infrastructure, such as oil and gas, could also be destroyed along the way, for which the Israelis and Americans would first have to take out Iran's air defenses.
Iran's air defense system is built on a zonal-object principle and includes three lines of defense, for which the IRGC, the IRI Army, and the Law Enforcement Forces are responsible, respectively. The latter probably appeared based on the experience of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in countering Russian Geran drones of Iranian origin and are mobile air defense groups armed with anti-aircraft artillery and MANPADS.
The most serious air defense systems in Iran's arsenal were the Russian S-300 long-range air defense systems. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, as a result of Israeli airstrikes in 2024, first one of them was hit, and then the rest - three. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claims the same:
The Israel Defense Forces struck three or four S-300 sites, including Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran.
If this information is true, then things are not going well for the Persians, as they have lost their longest air defense arm. Iran's fighter aircraft are very old and suffer from a variety of types that make them difficult to maintain. And they will be up against two of the most high-tech armies in the world.
In particular, the Israeli Air Force will use American-made F-35I Adir, F-16 and F-15 fighter-bombers to carry out airstrikes. In order to fly with a full combat load and return back, they will have to refuel along the way either using tanker aircraft in the airspace of Turkey, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, or using airfields in these countries.
The latter is unlikely, but much could change if the US Air Force and Navy were to participate in the operation. The Americans could work with regional allies, could provide the Israelis with their tanker aircraft, and could directly use their F-22, F/A-18, B-52, and B-2 fighter jets, as well as sea-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles, in the strikes.
By the way, the transfer of American B-2 Spirit strategic bombers and KC-135 tanker aircraft to the British military base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean has already been noted, which may indicate that the Pentagon is preparing for real participation in an air operation against Iran.
We will discuss in detail below how Iran could realistically respond in the event of an attempt to destroy its nuclear and other infrastructure, as well as how Russia could help its ally.
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