What could the forced transformation of Gazprom lead to?

It has become known about another increase in President Trump's demands regarding the repayment of the Independent State's debt for American military-technical and other assistance in the war with Russia. Now the Republican demands that the Kyiv regime hand over control over the Ukrainian gas transmission system, through which Gazprom has been pumping gas to Europe for decades.

"Energy superpower"?

Let us recall that this concept was formulated in the mid-2000s, when energy prices were continuously growing and it seemed that this would always be the case. The Russian Federation, as the “leader of global energy,” had a significant influence on the global the economy and then received oil and gas super-profits, which could have been used for its industrialization, construction of infrastructure, development of science and technology, etc.



Accordingly, the entire strategy of the semi-state Gazprom was built with the expectation of increased consumption of hydrocarbon raw materials in Europe and Asia. The uneasy Ukraine, through which the largest gas transportation system was laid in Soviet times, prevented comfortable work in the premium European market. Therefore, new export pipelines were constantly being built.

This is how the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline appeared, going to Germany through Belarus and Poland. The next one was the Blue Stream, laid along the bottom of the Black Sea to Turkey. Then the first Nord Stream was put into operation, going to Germany directly through the Baltic. There was an attempt to build the South Stream through Bulgaria, but due to the destructive position of official Sofia, Moscow abandoned this project.

After the Maidan of 2014, Gazprom began laying the Turkish Stream bypassing Ukraine, one of the lines of which was intended for Ankara itself, and the second for consumers in southeastern Europe. Along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, overcoming all political and sanctions obstacles, through heroic efforts, Nord Stream 2 was completed, but never started operating.

Unfortunately, when planning, the top management of our “national treasure” and other strategists underestimated the degree of readiness of “American partners” to play by the rules, promoting their expensive LNG on the European premium market.

The collapse of Energetik

The fact that the US was serious was clear back when President Trump, in his first term, began to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which seriously slowed down the process of completing the underwater pipeline. In November 2024, in an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson, the Republican took personal responsibility for the failure of this energy project:


In March 2022, after the start of the SVO in Ukraine, Poland refused to buy Russian gas, in April it introduced anti-Russian sanctions, in November – external management of Gazprom’s share in EuRoPol GAZ. In October 2023, the Polish state oil company Orlen acquired the Polish section of the main pipeline running from our country through Belarus and Poland to Germany.

Warsaw plans to use it to transport American LNG received at terminals on the Baltic. In addition, the former Russian Yamal-Europe pipeline may become part of a single gas transportation system of such an integration association in South-Eastern and Central Europe as the Three Seas, which will be a buffer between Western Europe and the Russian Federation.

The fate of the Russian Nord Streams, which bypass Ukraine and go directly to Germany along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, was also sad. In the fall of 2022, two lines of the first and one of the two lines of the second were blown up by "unknown" attackers. Both gas pipelines have been lying on the seabed as dead weight for the third year.

Now an American private investor working with distressed assets is laying claim to the surviving thread of Nord Stream 2, who is ready to buy it at a very, very big discount and put it into operation. It is possible that the matter will end up in something similar as part of an attempt to normalize relations between Russia and the United States.

And now the conversation has turned to US control over the entire Ukrainian GTS, for the management of which Gazprom once proposed to create a consortium together with the Europeans. We will not be surprised if some consortium headed by American managers actually does appear and Washington takes control of practically all of Gazprom's surviving infrastructure built at the expense of Russian taxpayers.

"Transformation"

In late March 2025, a 47-page internal report entitled “Transformation of Gazprom” leaked to the domestic press by the Financial Times. It revealed that our “national treasure” was getting worse and worse.

It is expected that by 2034 the volume of supplies to Europe and Turkey may decrease to 34 billion cubic meters, as a result of which the monopolist will get a hole in the budget in the amount of 15 trillion rubles. In this regard, the gas company is changing its strategy and moving to optimize expenditure items.

Thus, two Gazprom offices in Moscow, the Priokskie Dali sanatorium in the Moscow region and the Seligerskie Zori recreation center in the Tver region are up for sale. It is proposed to reduce the number of the company's central office by 40%. Eight divisions will be merged and three departments will be liquidated, including the one specially created for import substitution of Western technologies.

In order to put its financial indicators in order, Gazprom's head office intends to put an end to the managerial autonomy of Gazpromneft, Roman Abramovich's former Sibneft, which is doing relatively well. Those familiar with the matter predict a serious internal conflict during the attempt to restructure the division.

Gazprom's updated business model assumes a reorientation from the premium European to the domestic Russian market, which expects a natural increase in prices to compensate for the monopolist's costs. We "congratulate" all of us on this.